It finally happened. After months of escapes and fortunate bounces, the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks men’s basketball team lost a game.
Miami’s dream season saw a team that hadn’t been to the NCAA Men’s Tournament in nearly two decades struggle its way to a 31-0 start. The Redhawks weren’t playing good teams — they had zero games against what the NCAA labels as Quadrant I competition (the best teams in college basketball) and only two against Quadrant II foes — but they kept winning. As the awesome Rodger Sherman pointed out, nearly a third of their showdowns in that 31-game streak were decided by three points or fewer or in overtime.
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This penchant for stove-touching ended with a burn in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals. 16-15 Massachusetts, who’d nearly escaped with a win in Ohio back in January, finally held off Miami’s late-game magic. 31-0 became 31-1. Suddenly, Selection Sunday became much more interesting.
It shouldn’t be, because Miami, even without a resume-defining win, has earned its place in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Not because of incredible metrics or inherent trust in a team of rising stars, but because this year’s tournament bubble is one of the softest in years.
Let’s look at the latest controversy stirred up by Bruce Pearl. The former Auburn coach loudly proclaimed his old team (currently led by his son) deserves an at-large bid over the Redhawks. But the Tigers are 17-15. If they’re part of the at-large conversation, they’ll be so as a 16-loss team. No team in NCAA history has ever gotten an at-large bid with 16 losses. Only four have ever done it with 15 (all four, coincidentally, are SEC teams. 2025 Texas, 2019 Florida, 2018 Alabama and 2017 Vanderbilt).
Auburn isn’t the only team on the bubble, however. Let’s look at the other power conference teams sitting on the cut line based on expert analysis cobbled together by the extremely useful Bracket Matrix:
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Indiana (18-14, lost in Big Ten Tournament opening game to a Northwestern team with five conference wins)
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Oklahoma (18-14, still alive in the SEC Tournament)
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California (21-11, lost in the ACC Tournament opening game)
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Cincinnati (18-15, lost in Big 12 Tournament second game)
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Virginia Tech (19-13, lost in ACC Tournament opening round)
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SMU (20-13, lost in ACC Tournament second round)
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Texas (18-14, lost to 13-win Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament opening round)
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Missouri (20-11, still alive in the SEC Tournament)
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Texas A&M (21-10, still alive in the SEC Tournament)
That’s a heaping helping of mediocrity. All these teams had the opportunity to make their case to jump Miami in the pecking order. The majority have already bowed out of their conference tournaments, mostly at the hands of mediocre teams.
Many have better NET rankings than the Redhawks — a few more will slide up thanks to Miami’s loss to 204th-ranked UMass. Even so, it’s difficult to make a case that a team with a record hovering near .500 who lost to a team that won’t even sniff the NIT to open up conference tournaments is more worthy than the squad that pulled miracles out of its butt for the better part of four months before finally breaking down.
The argument over whether Miami (OH) is actually good is a worthy one. The argument about whether the bubble teams who could take their spot are good largely is not. Outside of the SEC (which is only one day into its tournament at the time of writing) the teams who had an opportunity to impress the Selection Committee have instead run screaming from the stage. The opportunity has been there, the execution has not.
The data says the Redhawks don’t deserve a spot, but the NCAA doesn’t rely only on numbers. Miami (OH) befell the same fate as many of 2026’s bubble teams by crashing out early in its conference tournament. The 31 games prior, however — games tinged with drama and an uncanny ability to find ways to win — proved enough to deserve an at-large spot this spring.
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This article originally appeared on For The Win: Miami (OH) will still make the NCAA Tournament (because the bubble is gross)
