Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: The debate continues. UConn or UCLA at No. 1?

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

Well folks, we made it. In just two short days we will have the official March Madness bracket in front of us. So for one final time, let’s try to get inside the mind of a committee member.

No. 1 overall seed debate

Prior to the first reveal, I thought the committee would award UCLA the overall No. 1 seed given its overall resume. Instead, it went to UConn. Given that precedent, I don’t see that changing in the official bracket — UConn will be the No. 1 overall seed, with UCLA sliding in at the No. 2 overall seed. Still, it’s an interesting debate, because after all of the criteria the committee itself has laid out, UCLA seems to have the nation’s best resume. The Bruins have one loss — an 11-point loss to Texas (the SEC tournament champs) in November’s Players Era Championship tournament. Since then, UCLA has won 25 straight games, gone undefeated in the Big Ten, racked up 18 Quad 1 wins, and earned a NET ranking of No. 2 all while playing against the fifth-toughest schedule. The Bruins also have several opponents in common with UConn, including Iowa, USC, Ohio State and Tennessee, with wins against each team.

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As for the Huskies, they are, of course, undefeated, with the country’s top player, Sarah Strong. UConn scheduled a difficult nonconference slate to offset the softer Big East regular season. The Huskies finished with nine Quad 1 wins, the top NET ranking and a strength of schedule of 22. Then, there is the eye test. To me, the margin between these teams in that regard is slim. So the question becomes, how important is being undefeated to the committee members? Is it more important than Quad 1 wins? More important than SOS? Or does it think UConn is just that much better when it comes to the eye test? All of those questions will be answered on Sunday, when the bracket is revealed.

Which teams secured No. 4 seeds, opportunity to host?

Being one of the top 16 teams heading into March Madness is a massive advantage because the No. 1 through No. 4 seeds host the first and second rounds on their respective campuses. Just missing the cut and receiving a No. 5 seed is a gut punch to start the NCAA Tournament. After conference tournaments, Minnesota, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Maryland sit at the No. 4 line, while Kentucky, Ole Miss, North Carolina and Michigan State just miss out.

Maryland and Kentucky are interesting here because they could easily flip-flop. Their resumes are similar, with Maryland owning one more Quad 1 win, and Kentucky boasting a better strength of schedule. Two things could impact the way committee members choose between these teams. First, the head-to-head matchup in November that Maryland won could influence their decision. Secondly, many Kentucky losses were without starting big Teonni Key, though she did play against Maryland. Because of the small margin between these squads, those points will likely be debated among the committee members as they make their final decision.

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Who rose after conference tournaments?

West Virginia is the biggest winner out of the conference tournaments. The Mountaineers played themselves from a No. 5 seed to a No. 4 seed by winning the Big 12 tournament. After losing to TCU twice in the regular season, West Virginia defeated the Horned Frogs 62-53 in the title game, adding one more signature win to its resume.

Ole Miss struggled down the stretch in SEC play, with consecutive losses to Florida and Texas A&M that dropped the Rebels to a No. 6 seed. Though it wasn’t enough to put them back in the hosting category, an 89-78 upset win over Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament moved them back to a No. 5 seed. Plus, beating the Commodores twice in one season is certainly good for morale.

Notre Dame is also up to a No. 6 seed after ending the season on a high note. The Fighting Irish won seven in a row — remember, the committee cares about recency — before losing 65-63 to Duke (the eventual champs) in the ACC tournament semifinals. That close loss, plus a late-season upset of Louisville on the road, helped boost Notre Dame’s resume.

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Who was hurt by conference tournaments?

Michigan dropped from a No. 2 to a No. 3 seed after losing to Iowa, while Michigan State also fell out of the hosting conversation by losing to Illinois to start the Big Ten tournament. But of all the non-bubble teams, USC and Tennessee were hurt the most by first-round tournament losses.

The Trojans are 17-13, with four straight losses heading into the NCAA Tournament, including a Quad 3 loss to Penn State. A win over Washington in the Big Ten tournament would have helped their case. A few things are still working in their favor, including a huge win over Iowa on Jan. 29, which means the Trojans should be safe from the bubble, likely earning a No. 8 or No. 9 seed.

The Lady Vols, meanwhile, face Selection Sunday in even worse shape than USC, losing 10 of their last 12 games. Nebraska finished in a similar fashion, but I have the Huskers out and the Lady Vols in. Here’s why: Despite both losing a significant number of games to end the regular season and tournament play, and competing in the top two conferences, Tennessee has an edge because of its overall body of work. Recency matters, but it’s a bigger factor for Nebraska because the Huskers had only one Quad 1 win, while Tennessee earned five. That’s why I see Tennessee receiving a No. 9 seed.

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The major conference tournaments finished last weekend but many mid-major teams are still punching their tickets to the Big Dance. Here’s who won’t be sweating it so much on Sunday.

NCAA Tournament automatic qualifiers

Colorado State, Duke, Fairfield, Gonzaga, Green Bay, High Point, Idaho, Jacksonville, James Madison, Rhode Island, Samford, Stephen F. Austin, South Dakota State, Texas, UCLA, UConn, West Virginia, Western Illinois

Want to fill out your bracket during the selection show? Before Selection Sunday arrives, download your printable bracket here.

The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

USC Trojans, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Maryland Terrapins, UCLA Bruins, Tennessee Lady Volunteers, Ole Miss Rebels, Kentucky Wildcats, West Virginia Mountaineers, Connecticut Huskies, Michigan Wolverines, Women’s College Basketball, Bracket Central

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