Now that the Field of 68 is set, it is time to start making decisions as to who will make your Final Four, who will be your Cinderellas, and what you will buy when you win your pool. Be honest, we all think about how we will spend that money before we win it.
Before you earn that dough, though, you have to make some difficult decisions. Prior to making those choices, though, it is important to recognize the odds of your 12-seed to knock off the 5 and the chance that the 14 you love will actually pull the rug out from under the 3 you don’t trust.
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Let’s start with the 16-seeds: Siena, LIU, UMBC/Howard and Prairie View/Lehigh. Your odds are long but dare to dream. Two times in 160 games (1.25%) since the field expanded in 1985, a 16-seed has slayed a giant. Not sure that Duke, Arizona, Michigan, or Florida break a sweat in the opening round but it is possible.
The odds a 15 defeats a 2 jump to 6.9% since the field expanded in 1985 and in fact all the way to 13.6% since 2013. This year’s collection of 15-seeds features a 7-seed from the Big Sky (Idaho), a university who only became eligible for the Tournament this season but who is about to merge with another school (Queens), and a couple schools (Furman and Tennessee State) who have not been to the tournament in a combined 78 years. St. Peter’s reached the Elite 8 in 2022 as a 15-seed but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Does the slipper fit one of this year’s quartet of 15-seeds for even one game?
As we move now to the matchup featuring No. 14s against No.3s, it starts to get a bit more interesting. One out of every seven games (14.4%) between a 14-seed and a 3 sees the underdog prevail. North Dakota State, Kennesaw State, Wright State, and the Quakers of Penn. Speaking of the Ivy League, it was only a couple of years ago when No. 4 Auburn fell to 13-seeded Yale. Again, it is possible.
Read More: Vaughn Dalzell’s Cinderellas
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For those betting the spreads, 13-seeds have gone 26-26 against the spread since 2012. Overall, the 4s have had their way, though, winning 127 of the 160 games outright. Cal Baptist, Hawaii, Hofstra, and Troy are looking to do more than over the number this week.
When a 12-seed knocks off a 5 it is no longer nearly as shocking as it once was. The 12s have won 35.6% of the time since 1985 (103-57) and on three occasions – 2013, 2014, and 2019 – only one 5-seed survived the opening round. Picking a 12-seed to pull off the upset is in fact so common that the average pool rarely awards extra points for your correct pick of a 12 to move to the Round of 32. One or more of Northern Iowa, High Point, McNeese, and Akron will be popular picks this week against St. John’s, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, and Texas Tech.
The 11s have won 62 of the 160 games against a 6-seed in the NCAA Tourney. That translates to 1.5 wins EVERY Tournament. Rather than look at which 11 will win, maybe it is best to ponder which No. 6 seed – Louisville, BYU, Tennessee, North Carolina – is most vulnerable to make a quick exit.
Last season a pair of No. 10 seeds – Arkansas and New Mexico – won in the Opening Round. It happened three times in 2019, but overall the 10-seed wins at the same rate as the 11s (39%).
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The 9 vs. the 8 has actually resulted in more wins for the 9-seed (83-77). More interesting though is the limited success of the 9s in Round 2 compared to those 8s who advance in Round 1. Only eight times has the 9-seed upset the 1-seed but 15 times the No. 8 has slayed the giant in the Second Round. As you fill out your bracket, that is a stat to consider IF you have your eyes on an early round exit for a top seed.
You’ve got the numbers in terms of how the seeds have historically performed. Take that information into account as you fill out your bracket but also give a moment to factor in NIL. There will be upsets, but NIL was a factor in limiting those last year. The Top 4 seeds went 16-0 in the Opening Round last year. Will its effect on the field be the same in this year’s Tournament? Even greater? I think it would be naïve to think the role money plays will lessen in this year’s dance.
All the best as you enter your office or neighborhood pool. Above all else, have fun and please remember that if it was easy picking winners, they would not be building bigger casinos. Bet responsibly.
