March Madness 2026: Ranking every men’s NCAA tournament First Four and first-round game, from most competitive to least

The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament begins Tuesday with the First Four. The tourney’s first round officially begins two days later after the field shrinks to 64 teams.

That’s a lot of games. Need help looking for potential upsets? Or even just a little guidance on how to best spend your viewing hours?

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Using KenPom ratings as a barometer, here’s how the 36 games rank in terms of competitiveness — from most to least:

1. West No. 8 Villanova vs. 9 Utah State: Utah State is 32nd in KenPom, one spot ahead of Villanova. Best 8/9 in bracket.

2. Midwest No. 8 Georgia vs. 9 Saint Louis: Georgia is eight spots ahead of Saint Louis in KenPom, but susceptible to upset.

3. South No. 8 Clemson vs. 9 Iowa: Iowa is 11 spots ahead of Clemson in KenPom. Strongest case for 9-over-8 upset in bracket.

5. Midwest No. 7 Kentucky vs. 10 Santa Clara: One of the most competitive 7/10s in the bracket.

6. East No. 8 Ohio State vs. 9 TCU: Ohio State has edge, but TCU is a strong defensive team defensively (23rd in KenPom).

7. South No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. 10 Texas A&M: SMC is experienced but A&M’s athleticism could win out.

8. West No. 11 Texas vs. 11 NC State: Two 11-seeds battle for spot vs. BYU

9. West No. 6 BYU vs. 11 NC State/Texas: AJ Dybantsa will be the difference for BYU, regardless of their first-round opponent.

10. West No. 7 Miami (Fla.) vs. 10 Missouri: Missouri (KenPom #51) is a big step below Miami on paper, but the 7/10 line historically sees upsets often.

11. East No. 7 UCLA vs. 10 UCF: KenPom gap is 25.

12. South No. 6 North Carolina vs. 11 VCU: VCU (#47) is a tournament-tested defensive team. UNC missing Caleb Wilson (broken thumb) tightens this even more.

13. Midwest No. 6 Tennessee vs. 11 Miami (Ohio)/SMU: Tennessee is KenPom 14; if Miami (Ohio) beats SMU, it could test Vols.

14. West No. 5 Wisconsin vs. 12 High Point: Wisconsin is KenPom 24 but only No. 62 defensively. High Point is battle-tested. Not a sure thing for the Badgers.

15. East No. 6 Louisville vs. 11 South Florida: Bulls have won 11 in a row.

16. Midwest No. 4 Alabama vs. 13 Hofstra: Alabama is KenPom 16, but their defense (No. 68) is a weakness.

17. Midwest No. 5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Akron: Texas Tech has strong defense; Akron has a 44-spot KenPom gap but is MAC-tested.

18. East No. 5 St. John’s vs. 12 Northern Iowa: Northern Iowa’s No. 25 KenPom defense is elite but St. John’s is KenPom 21 overall.

19. East No. 3 Michigan State vs. 14 N. Dakota State: MSU is KenPom 9 overall but struggled against UCLA in Big Ten tourney.

20. South No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 McNeese: Vanderbilt is KenPom No. 13, but McNeese is a capable Southland mid-major.

21. East No. 4 Kansas vs. 13 Cal Baptist: Kansas KenPom No. 10 defense vs. first-time tourney team Cal Baptist.

22. West No. 4 Arkansas vs. 13 Hawaii: Arkansas is KenPom No. 16 overall with a top-10 offense (No. 6).

23. South No. 4 Nebraska vs. 13 Troy: Troy has won conference tournament but faces a 70-spot KenPom gap.

24. South No. 3 Illinois vs. 14 Penn: Illinois is KenPom 5 overall with the nation’s No. 1 offense.

25. Midwest No. 16 UMBC vs. 16 Howard: UMBC is a significant KenPom favorite; 80-spot gap.

26. Midwest No. 3 Virginia vs. 14 Wright State: Virginia is KenPom No. 19. Wright State has a 76-spot gap to cover.

27. West No. 3 Gonzaga vs. 14 Kennesaw State: Gonzaga is an elite program with deep tournament experience. Kennesaw has a 91-spot gap.

28. West No. 2 Purdue vs. 15 Queens: Purdue is KenPom 8 overall with a No. 2 offense. Queens is a first-time tournament team.

29. East No. 2 UConn vs. 15 Furman: UConn is a national title contender. Furman is a capable mid-major, but gap is enormous.

30. Midwest No. 1 Michigan vs. 16 UMBC/Howard: Michigan is KenPom 2. Even if UMBC wins in First Four, gap is too much.

31. South No. 2 Houston vs. 15 Idaho: Houston is a KenPom power with an elite defense. No contest.

32. South No. 16 Lehigh vs. 16 Prairie View A&M: Not all 16 seeds are created equal. Could be a walkover in the First Four.

33. South No. 1 Florida vs. 16 Lehigh/Prairie View A&M: Winner of First Four faces an overwhelming gap. Smooth opener.

34. East No. 1 Duke vs. 16 Siena: Duke’s No. 1 KenPom defense vs. Siena’s No. 155. One of the most lopsided matchups on paper in the entire bracket.

35. Midwest No. 2 Iowa State vs. 15 Tennessee State: Tennessee State has a 158-spot gap.

36. West No. 1 Arizona vs. 16 LIU: Arizona No. 3 KenPom, LIU No. 168. Enough said.