Women’s NCAA Tournament power rankings: Can Vanderbilt stay alive long enough to face UConn?

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

It’s time. After a season of buildup spent analyzing results, talent and seeding, we have a bracket. March Madness officially begins on Wednesday and Thursday with the first four games and continues into the first round on Friday and Saturday.

UConn is the clear favorite to win the title, followed by UCLA, but plenty of talent is scattered throughout the bracket, particularly within the top 16 teams.

So who has the best chance, and who will have to fight to get to the title game? Let’s discuss:

Connecticut Huskies

What can I say about the Huskies that hasn’t already been said? They are the defending champs. The No. 1 team from start to finish this season. Undefeated. Have the winningest coach in history and two of the country’s best – if not the top two – players in Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd. It would be wild to put anyone else at the top of this list. We’ve only seen one team come close to beating UConn this season, and that was Michigan in an early-season game. In that contest, Michigan’s Syla Swords couldn’t miss, making eight 3-pointers for 29 points. The Huskies suffered a complete collapse in the third quarter, recording just four points. They played some truly bad basketball in the third, while Michigan played its absolute best. All of that happened, and the Huskies still had enough to win. They are just that good. UConn has everything on their side: coaching, star power, experience, and if the Michigan game is anything to go by, destiny.

UCLA Bruins

Winning the Big Ten tournament with a 51-point win over a solid Iowa team was the perfect end to a nearly flawless season for UCLA. The Bruins have perhaps the nation’s most talented roster with Lauren Betts, Kiki Rice, Gabriela Jaquez, Gianna Kneepkens, Charlisse Leger-Walker and Angela Dugalic, all of whom are expecting to hear their names called in the 2026 WNBA Draft. If there is a team in the country that can beat UConn, it’s the Bruins. Balance is the key to this squad, with four starters averaging 13 points or more and two other players recording nine points per contest. They also have Sienna Betts, one of the country’s top-ranked freshmen, coming off the bench. She found herself against Iowa, finishing with 14 points, seven rebounds, five assists and a block.

Texas Longhorns

Madison Booker and Rori Harmon will continue to lead Texas, but it’s everybody else that will control how deep the Longhorns go. Take the 78-61 SEC championship win over South Carolina. Booker and Harmon were their usual selves, but Justice Carelton stepped up, finishing with 15 points. Jordan Lee, who has been solid all season, did the same, scoring 12 points. And though her eight points aren’t eye-popping, junior forward Breya Cunningham was impactful, grabbing eight rebounds to help the Longhorns to a 35-26 advantage on the glass.

South Carolina Gamecocks

The Gamecocks went through the entire SEC regular-season slate with just one loss, before falling to Texas in the conference tournament championship game (their other loss to Texas happened during the nonconference slate). The SEC is a gauntlet, so for the Gamecocks to go 17-3 on the season against SEC teams is impressive. Raven Johnson has been sensational in her fifth season, especially as a scorer. In years past, Johnson was happy to defer, but this season, she’s calling her own number. In an SEC semifinal win over LSU, Johnson was South Carolina’s leading scorer with 22 points, while also dishing out eight assists. You won’t find a more well-rounded or more experienced point guard than Johnson.

Vanderbilt Commodores

The Commodores are set to meet UConn in the Elite Eight, which of course, is a matchup no one wants. But the Commodores have something that not a lot of other teams have: someone who can guard Sarah Strong. Strong is a matchup nightmare because she’s built like a post, but she possesses guard skills. Vandy’s 6-foot-2 senior Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda has the length, athleticism and size to defend Strong. If she stays out of foul trouble and the rest of the Commodores do their jobs, this game could be interesting.

Michigan Wolverines

The Wolverines have the distinction of being the only team in the country to lose by just three points to both UConn and UCLA. When they get hot and are at their best, the Wolverines can beat anyone. The only reason I don’t have them higher on this list is their lack of bigs. When it comes to guards, Michigan has three of the best in the country in Swords, Olivia Olson and Mila Holloway. But if they want a chance at cutting down the nets, they need to get more – particularly defensively – from their post players.

LSU Tigers

The Tigers are a deep team that wins by committee. Their top eight rotation players score eight points or more per contest. At the top of that stat sheet is MiLaysia Fulwiley, who has blossomed since transferring in from South Carolina. She’s leading LSU in points (14.6), assists (3.7), steals (3) and blocks (1.4). The Tigers also have the luxury of a player who has won a national title in Flau’jae Johnson, who cut down the nets as a freshman alongside Angel Reese. That experience is huge.

Oklahoma Sooners

An elite center can do wonders for a team’s chances in March, and Oklahoma has that in senior Raegan Beers. The Sooners also have one of the country’s top freshmen in Aaliyah Chavez and an underrated impact player in forward Sahara Williams. Oklahoma likes to play fast, which makes the Sooners a threat to run away with games. It also makes them turnover prone (16.3 per game). And though Oklahoma can shoot the lights out at times, the Sooners can also shoot themselves out of games. It simply comes down to which version of this team shows up. The one that upset South Carolina? Or the one that just lost by 34 points?

Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes are another team that has looked great at times but subpar at others. It doesn’t help that they enter the tournament off that 51-point loss to UCLA. Though losing to the No. 2 team in the country, even by a wide margin, is nothing to be ashamed of, it does make you wonder if Iowa has the goods to beat the other top teams in this tournament. The Hawkeyes have a center who is well on her way to being one of the country’s best in sophomore Ava Heiden (17.4 points, 7.3 rebounds). As a collective, Iowa’s chemistry is among the best in the country. If they get hot, that could propel the Hawkeyes deep into March.

Duke Blue Devils

You know the old adage, “Defense wins championships?” Duke embodies it. Kara Lawson’s commitment to building her team’s defense was so intense that it caused concerns in the early season when the Blue Devils offense was suffering. Now that they’ve put it all together, Duke is dangerous. Sophomore big Toby Fournier is thriving this season, averaging 17.3 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. Foul trouble is a concern for Duke as the Blue Devils rely heavily on their starters.

TCU Horned Frogs

It’s hard to find a spot for TCU on this list because, at their best, the Horned Frogs look like a potential Final Four squad. At their worst, they could make an early exit. Olivia Miles is an elite talent, and she has a solid squad around her, but the Horned Frogs don’t have the chemistry that’s important at this point in the season. TCU doesn’t seem like a unit, but if it becomes one, then it can be dangerous. Marta Suarez continues to impress with her unique skillset, polished footwork and ability to score from anywhere on the court. Junior guard Donovyn Hunter is also hitting her stride and has the potential to be a breakout player.

Louisville Cardinals

Louisville is talented, but inexperienced; its top two scorers Taj Roberts and Imari Berry are both sophomores. Still, they’ve shown poise throughout the season so Louisville is certainly still a threat. Junior Elif Istanbulluoglu has also provided a lift this season. After playing just 13 minutes per game as a sophomore, her playing time has doubled. The forward is now averaging 9.8 points, 5 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. The Cardinals will need players like Istanbulluoglu to contribute to make a run.

Ohio State Buckeyes

There may not be a better pure scorer in the country than sophomore guard Jaloni Cambridge. With her on the roster, Ohio State will have a chance no matter who it plays. That strength, however, can also be a weakness. Ohio State has just two double-digit scorers in Cambridge (22.8 points per game) and Chance Gray (14.9). Cambridge also leads the Buckeyes in assists, so they tend to rely on her too much offensively.

West Virginia Mountaineers

The Mountaineers boast of the country’s most underrated backcourts. Jordan Harrison, Sydney Shaw and Gia Cooke can all get to the rim, and they can all defend. Their ability to guard full-court is what makes the Mountaineers dangerous. After beating TCU in the Big 12 championship game, West Virginia proved its ability to play with anyone. The concern is a lack of depth at the post position; Kierra Wheeler, who is also undersized at 6-foot-1, is called on to do almost everything for the Mountaineers in the paint.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Golden Gophers have been battle-tested this season, fighting their way to fourth in a stacked Big Ten, with big wins over Iowa and Ohio State. This is a balanced team with five players who average double-figures. All of them are capable of going off for a big scoring night. However, the Gophers haven’t been to March Madness since 2018, so it’s hard to predict how they will react to playing on the game’s biggest stage.

North Carolina Tar Heels

The highlight of North Carolina’s season (so far) was a 74-69 win over rival ,and top ACC team Duke on March 1. Sophomore guard Elina Aarnisalo was sensational in the win, scoring a career-high 22 points on 7-of-13 shooting and adding seven rebounds, four assists and two steals. Her continued development is major for the Tar Heels.

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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

Duke Blue Devils, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oklahoma Sooners, UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, North Carolina Tar Heels, Louisville Cardinals, Iowa Hawkeyes, TCU Horned Frogs, West Virginia Mountaineers, Connecticut Huskies, LSU Lady Tigers, Michigan Wolverines, Texas Longhorns, Women’s College Basketball, Bracket Central

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