Texas nearly blew a 9-point lead in the final two minutes versus NC State, but Tramon Mark hit the go-ahead basket with 1 second left as Texas held on to advance.
The Longhorns now travel from Dayton, Ohio to Portland, Oregon where they will play BYU Thursday at 4:25 PT. BYU arrived to Portland on Tuesday.
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Texas and BYU by the Numbers
Texas KenPom: 37
NET ranking: 42
Record: 19-14 (9-9 Big 12)
Best Wins: NC State (twice), Alabama (A), Vanderbilt (H), Georgia (H), Oklahoma (A), South Carolina (H), Ole Miss (H), Mizzou (A), LSU (H), Texas A&M (A)
Losses: Duke (N), Arizona State (N), Virginia (H), UConn (A), Mississippi State (H), Tennessee (A), Texas A&M (H), Kentucky (A), Auburn (A), Georgia (A), Florida (H), Arkansas (A), Oklahoma (H), Ole Miss (N)
AP Ranking: n/a
BYU KenPom: 23
NET Ranking: 23
Record: 23-11 (9-9 Big 12)
AP Ranking: n/a
KenPom Prediction: BYU 84, Texas 81 — BYU 60% win probability
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Point Spread: BYU -1.5; you can get odds at FanDuel
Point Total: 159.5
Texas Overview
Texas came into the NCAA Tournament having lost 5 of their last 6, but have a potent offense and are capable of advancing when they are on.
Despite a defensive battle versus NC State, offense has been the strength of the Longhorns this year. Texas ranks 18th in KenPom offensive efficiency and were 4th out of 16 SEC teams in conference play. The Longhorns run a slow pace and rely on getting to the foul line. They have the fourth highest free-throw rate in college basketball. They also are good on the offensive glass.
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Defensive is where Texas has had their struggles. They rank 95th in KenPom defensive efficiency and are bottom half in the SEC in many defensive metrics. Texas doesn’t force many turnovers, and are 301st nationally in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 36% from three. That was even worse in SEC play; opponents shot 37.5% from distance. Big 12 opponents shot 37.9% from three versus BYU, so we have two teams that were terrible at guarding the three in league play. As good as Texas is at drawing fouls, they also foul a ton as well. Big man Matas Vokietaitis is third nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, but he also fouls over 5 times per 40 minutes and has seven straight games with at least four fouls. Texas has deficiencies on defense, but they are a good rebounding team on both ends of the floor.
Texas has four players who average over 13 ppg and do a bulk of the scoring. Dailyn Swain was named SEC Newcomer of the Year and Second-Team All SEC. A 6-foot-8 wing, Swain leads Texas in scoring (17.8 ppg), rebounding (7.6 rpg), assists (3.4) and steals (1.7)
Texas’ main formula to win is getting to the foul line and controlling the glass.
Players to Watch
Dailyn Swain, Wing — Swain is one of the top players in the SEC and Texas’ swiss army knife. He leads Texas in the four categories mentioned above and shoots 55% from the field and averages 6 free throw attempts per game. BYU will likely use a combo of Moo Davis, AJ Dybantsa, and Khadim Mboup to guard him. Swain shoots a respectable 34.5% from three and averages 2.6 attempts per game. The majority of his attempts are from inside the arc.
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Matas Vokietaitis, Center — Matas is a physical big man who is a big part of what Texas does. He is second on the team in scoring (15.5 ppg) and rebounds (6.8 rpg). Matas is top 15 nationally in free throw attempts, getting to the line nearly 8 times per game and shoots 70%. He is also very foul prone, averaging 5.4 fouls per 40 minutes. He and Keita’s foul trouble early in the game will be a storyline to monitor. Matas is the only player taller than 6-foot-8 in Texas’ rotation.
Tramon Mark, Guard — The 6-foot-5 guard hit the game-winning shot with 1 second left versus NC State and led them in scoring with 17 points when Swain was struggling. He averages 13.5 ppg on the season and is a well rounded scorer. Mark is a streaky three-point shooter (32.4%), and Texas’ offense is humming when he hits outside shots.
Jordan Pope, Guard — The 6-foot-1 guard is the fourth piece of Texas’ top four scoring options. Pope averages 13.1 ppg and is Texas best shooter. He averages over six three attempts per game and shot over 37%. He shot 1-5 versus NC State. But had a 7-18 performance versus Oklahoma and shot 6-13 from three at Alabama.
Camden Heide, Wing/Forward — Heide is Texas’ fifth starter and averages 6 points per game, shooting 46-100 from three on the season.
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Prediction
Oddsmakers predict a close game. BYU looked better down the stretch than Texas did, but the Cougs had plenty of struggles before that. Texas has their deficiencies, but they have size/length and good individual players.
One of the big keys to the game for me is how BYU attacks Texas Center Motas Vokietaitis. Texas is a great rebounding team, due in large part to Motas. He is the only rotation player taller than 6-foot-8, and when he is off the floor Texas isn’t as dominant on the glass. If BYU can’t get him in foul trouble early, he could get Keba in foul trouble and allow Texas to own the glass and get to the foul line. I expect BYU to attack him early with AJ — if BYU can get Motas in first half foul trouble, BYU could build a first half lead and force Texas to revert from their gameplan. AJ is better than anyone in college basketball at drawing fouls, and I bet he’ll be in his bag to get Motas to bite.
I like BYU here for a few reasons. Swain and Motas are both great players, but I think BYU has the personnel to slow them down at least a bit. BYU has struggled most against dynamic guards where Rob Wright is exposed, but Texas doesn’t have the personnel to really exploit Rob; BYU can hide Rob better defensively against Texas than they can other teams. BYU can throw Moo Davis, AJ Dybantsa, Khadim Mboup, and Dominique Diomande at Swaim to give him different looks and wear him down. All four are capable defenders and I expect KY to rotate them all on Swain. Motas can be a load, but I think AJ and Rob could get him into enough foul trouble which limits some of his effectiveness.
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I also think BYU has turned a real corner on defense the last four games and has found an identity post Richie-Saunders which includes length on defense and either shooting or offensive rebounding around AJ Dybantsa on offense to complement him.
I’ll take BYU in a fairly close game, but I think BYU contains Texas’ offense just enough and UT can’t find enough answers to slow down Rob and AJ.
Prediction: BYU 78, Texas 73
