Ranking Big 12 teams by NCAA National Championship chances

The Big 12 is one of the best, if not the best, basketball conferences in America this year. Eight teams made the NCAA Tournament, with five landing on the 5 line or better. It’s deep, loaded, and as good as any league in the country, but can it actually produce a national champion this season?

The last time the Big 12 cut down the nets was in 2022, when Kansas won it all, and Baylor before that in 2021. Since then, UConn went back-to-back in 2023 and 2024, with Florida the reigning champion. So now the question is simple. Can the Big 12 get back on top in 2026?

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Here’s how the conference stacks up heading into March, ranked by who has the best shot to win it all.

UCF and TCU are not included due to their extreme longshot title odds.

BYU has one of the best players in the entire tournament in future top-three NBA pick AJ Dybantsa. The freshman from Massachusetts took a big NIL deal to come to Provo, and it’s paid off. He led the nation in scoring, and if not for some tough injury luck around him, BYU likely would be seeded much higher.

The loss of senior guard Richie Saunders in February to a season-ending ACL tear changed everything. The Cougars dropped four of their final six regular-season games, and Dybantsa’s volume and efficiency both took a hit in the absence of that secondary presence.

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Still, the star power is real. Dybantsa has the kind of talent that can take over games and carry a team for stretches in March. The question is how far that can realistically go. BYU opens against either Texas or NC State as an 11 seed, with a likely matchup against Gonzaga waiting after that.

A title run feels more like a long shot than a real expectation, but when you have a player like that, you at least give yourself a chance. Until proven otherwise, Cougars fans can keep dreaming.

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5 seed)

Another Big 12 contender was hit at the worst possible time by the injury bug. Texas Tech was rolling before losing last year’s Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin to a torn ACL a month ago. He was the engine of this team, leading them in both scoring and rebounding at nearly 22 points and 10.8 boards a night. That kind of production is almost impossible to replace, especially in March.

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That said, this isn’t a roster without talent. Sophomore guard Christian Anderson, a projected top 20 NBA pick, is more than capable of stepping into a bigger role and helping stabilize things. Still, the recent trend isn’t encouraging. The Red Raiders have not won a game since February 28, when they knocked off Iowa State, and they’ve clearly lost some momentum heading into the tournament.

There’s been a lot of chatter about 12-seed Akron pulling the upset. That might be a bit aggressive, but it does speak to the uncertainty around this team right now. Without Toppin anchoring everything, Texas Tech feels like a team with a capped ceiling and a shorter path than they would have had just a few weeks ago.

4. Kansas Jayhawks (4 seed)

What version of Kansas are we getting this March? That’s the big question, and no one really seems to have the answer. Darryn Peterson might be the biggest wildcard in the entire tournament. The five-star freshman and likely No. 1 overall pick in this summer’s NBA draft has all the talent in the world, but the results have been mixed. Kansas is actually better record-wise when he doesn’t play, going 12-7 with him and 10-2 without him.

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It just never fully clicked in Lawrence this season with Peterson in the lineup. Still, the talent is obvious. He averaged 20 points in 21 games and can take over at any moment. The question is whether he can do it within the flow of the team, or if it becomes empty production that doesn’t translate into wins. Bill Self will need him to buy in and play within the system if Kansas wants to make a real run.

The draw did them no favors either. The Jayhawks landed in a loaded East region with Duke, St. John’s, Michigan State and UConn, which makes the path even tougher.

If everything is clicking, Kansas can beat anyone in the field. We just haven’t seen enough consistency or cohesion this season to fully trust it happening over a full tournament run.

3. Iowa State Cyclones (2 seed)

Iowa State checks just about every box you look for in a national title contender. They’ve got an elite defense, high-level shooting, veteran leadership and plenty of scoring options. This is not a team anyone wants to see in March.

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They’re led in part by one of the best shooters in the country in junior forward Milan Momcilovic, who’s been unconscious from deep. Shooting close to 50 percent from three on over 250 attempts is almost unheard of, and it gives this offense another level.

Defensively, they’re relentless. They make life difficult for everyone and have proven they can beat top teams, taking down Kansas, Texas Tech and Houston during the season. That said, there are still some concerns. They went 0-2 against Arizona and, as a program, have shown a tendency to tighten up in big moments, especially late in games in March settings.

The path to the Sweet 16 looks favorable, which gives them a real opportunity to build momentum. The question is whether they can stay composed as the pressure ramps up and the moment grows.

2. Houston Cougars (2 seed)

At some point, Kelvin Sampson has to break through and win a national title, right? Houston has been right there year after year. Final Four in 2021, Elite Eight in 2022, Sweet 16 runs in 2023 and 2024, and then coming up just short in the national title game last season, losing by two to Florida. That’s about as close as you can get without finishing the job.

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This year’s group is hungry and motivated, and they’ve got a freshman phenom leading the way. Kingston Flemings, a projected top 10 NBA pick, leads the team in both scoring and assists and gives them a go-to presence when they need it most.

There’s also a real path setting up in their favor. They open in Oklahoma City against Idaho, likely stay close to home in the second round, and if they take care of business, the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight would be played in Houston at the Rockets arena. That kind of environment could be a massive advantage if they get there.

This team might not have the same level of experience as last year’s runner-up, but the talent is there, and Flemings is special. It comes down to staying composed and handling the pressure. With the draw they have in the South region and the potential home court boost, Houston feels like a team you need to keep a close eye on.

Talk about checking every box. Arizona has been one of the most complete teams in the country all season, losing just two games and dominating on both ends of the floor. They rank top five offensively and top three defensively, and they’ve got size that gives almost every opponent problems.

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The balance is what really stands out. Seven players are averaging nine or more points per game, which is pretty wild and speaks to how deep and unselfish this team is. They shoot it well from three, crash the glass, and have real star power across the roster.

If there’s one concern, it’s experience. Two of their top three scorers, Brayden Burries and Koa Peat, are freshmen. That always brings some uncertainty this time of year.

Still, this team has rolled through the season and landed in a favorable West region where some of the other top seeds come with bigger question marks. The talent and production are all there. It just comes down to whether those young guys can deliver when the lights are brightest and whether Tommy Lloyd can finally get this program past that Sweet 16 hurdle.

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 title chances ranked for 2026 NCAA Tournament