This weekend (Sat., March 21, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to the 02 Arena in London, England, for UFC London. Despite the venture across the pond, a lot of this card is underwhelming. It really all revolves around the main event, an incredible matchup between two of the very best Featherweights in the world, Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev. This matchup is actually the silver lining to Diego Lopes’ undeserved second title shot: it should have been Murphy or Evloev, but getting to watch the duo compete is a consolation prize. As for the rest, well, the usual mix of local talent — some fun, some gifted — are being trusted to provide the action.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the five main card fights leading up to the main event:
Featherweight: Luke Riley (-265) vs. Michael Aswell (+200)
Best Win for Riley? Bogdan Grad For Aswell? Lucas Almeida
Current Streak: Both men won their last UFC bout
X-Factor: This is a pair of young, relatively green up-and-comers
How these two match up: This matchup is a continued investment in the career of 26-year-0ld Luke Riley.
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The young striker from Liverpool is an exciting and popular prospect at 145 pounds. His UFC debut showed several areas that need to be improved if he’s to contend — namely on the floor — but Riley also showed his promise by storming back in the second round and absolutely starching his foe with a heavy combination. Aswell is actually a year younger but doesn’t have the same hype. He’s fought a very solid level of competition for his experience, and boxing has proven to be his best asset.
Both men have earned a majority of their wins via knockout.
There looks to be a difference in power and fluidity. As is so often the case with young standouts, their games are both more focused on offense than slick defense, so a gap in punching power is likely to be the deciding factor. Riley is the more explosive man here, meaning he’s likely to score first, set the tone, and continue to build success.
Aswell has never been stopped, but maybe the Cage Warriors vet can break that trend.
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Prediction: Riley via knockout
Welterweight: Michael Page (-215) vs. Sam Patterson (+164)
Best Win for Page? Jared Cannonier For Patterson? Danny Barlow
Current Streak: Page has won two in a row, while Patterson has won four straight
X-Factor: Page is 38 years old
How these two match up: It’s hard to interpret this matchup as anything other than a punishment for Page.
“MVP” clearly beat Cannonier and Shara Magomedov in his last two fights, two opponents far more accomplished than anybody Patterson has ever faced, let alone defeated. Page is 3-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming to Ian Garry — he’s clearly proven himself a world-class talent, yet he isn’t being given a chance to climb the ladder. Patterson, for his part, is a solid prospect. He’s massive for the Welterweight division and is a finishing threat both on the canvas and on the feet. Likely, he’ll have to rely heavily on the wrestling if he’s to score the upset here, because Page is a tremendously tricky striker.
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I don’t really see it happening. Page is a mediocre grappler, but he’s quite difficult to drag to the canvas. Really, only top-notch competition has managed it, and I’m not sure Patterson is there quite yet. Furthermore, it’s difficult for a fighter accustomed to having a range advantage to suddenly be outgunned at the kicking distance. Patterson is going to walk into a lot of Page’s traps, and that’s only going to make it harder for him to find takedowns.
I’m expecting another flashy decision win for the former Bellator title challenger.
Prediction: Page via decision
Light Heavyweight: Iwo Baraniewski (-430) vs. Austen Lane (+300)
Best Win for Baraniewski? Ibo Aslan For Lane? Robelis Despaigne
Current Streak:Baraniewski recently won his UFC debut, whereas Lane has lost two straight
X-Factor: Baraniewski is still fairly unproven as a pro
How these two match up: I’m fairly surprised Lane is still on the UFC roster after his 1-4 (1) promotional start, but there are desperate times in the heavier divisions.
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Fortunately, 27-year-old Baraniewski looks to be a talented up-and-comer. The Polish finisher has a wealth of amateur experience, and he’s thus far really excelled as a professional, scoring all seven of his pro wins via stoppage. He has heavy hands and a background in Judo, the latter of which has yet to really factor into his UFC career.
Lane, meanwhile, has the unfortunate curse of being chinny. In the upper divisions, one’s ability to take a shot is as important as any actual skill, and Lane doesn’t have the gift of durability. On the plus side, Lane does have some decent boxing, and he did manage to wrestle Despaigne consistently for three rounds to score his sole UFC victory.
I’m not going to dig too deep into this one: we have a young fighter who hits hard with a good pedigree taking an older opponent who’s primary role in the UFC has been punching bag. Lane has a puncher’s chance, but otherwise I don’t see him finding consistent wrestling success nor is he going to able to hang in the pocket for long opposite Baraniewski.
“Rudy” remains undefeated with another quick finish.
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Prediction: Baraniewski via knockout
Middleweight: Roman Dolidze (+300) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-430)
Best Win for Dolidze? Marvin Vettori For Duncan? Eryk Anders
Current Streak: Dolidze lost his last bout, whereas Duncan has won three straight
X-Factor: Dolidze is 37 years old and coming off one of the most brutal losses of 2025
How these two match up: I thought I was going to predict an upset here, but turns out the odds makers and betting public are way, way ahead of me.
Dolidze has always been a strange fighter. How many Top 10 talents can honestly say their best asset is their bottom game? Dolidze is a big, lumbering hitter on the feet, but he’s genuinely at his most dangerous when allowed to play guard.
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It’s not a style that should work in modern MMA, but here we are.
Duncan, conversely, is a striker who moves really fluidly. He attacks well at distance but also closes range beautifully, flowing into combinations in a way that relatively few men at 185 pounds can match. There have been some growing pains for the 30-year-old Englishman, but he appears to have shored up his defensive grappling in a significant way.
While Dolidze is definitely a finishing threat, it’s hard not to favor the rising contender here. Duncan is going to mash up Dolidze on the feet, and the Georgian standout has never demonstrated any kind of consistent offensive wrestling. My exact prediction is this: Dolidze comes out swinging until Duncan cracks him a few times, at which point Dolidze enters “stall in the clinch” mode to keep himself conscious until the final bell.
That’s not a winning strategy, but it’s better than getting knocked out by a spinning elbow.
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Prediction: Duncan via decision
Featherweight: Kurtis Campbell (-215) vs. Danny Silva (+164)
Best Win for Campbell? Demba Seck For Silva? Josh Culibao
Current Streak: Campbell debuts at 8-0, while Silva lost his most recent bout
X-Factor: Potential UFC jitters for Campbell
How these two match up: This should be a great scrap.
There’s a lot to like about 23-year-old Campbell, who approaches combat with the confidence and aggression one would expect from an unbeaten young talent. He’s active from all ranges, using punishing kicks to set up counter combinations. He’s plenty willing to wrestle too, showing a good level of comfort wherever the fight goes. Silva is similarly well-rounded. That said, his boxing and comfort in the pocket are his most standout traits. He’s at his best when throwing punches-in-bunches, staying in range and keeping the punch count high.
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I expect a very competitive fight here. Campbell appears to be a bit more powerful, and he holds the kicking advantage. Silva, conversely, has an edge in boxing and volume, as well as more experience against high-level competition. As such, I’m expecting Campbell to start the fight strong, but Silva will begin to find success as Campbell naturally slows down a bit.
It’s a matter of timing and that rowdy London crowd. Can Silva turn the tide and sway the judges before Campbell builds too great a lead? I’m inclined to think he can, but winning close fights on enemy soil is not an easy task.
