March Madness Expert Picks: Daily Best Bets and Predictions

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Welcome to your March Madness hub for the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament. Our college basketball experts will guide you through the March Madness bracket with March Madness expert picks, matchup breakdowns, and betting analysis for every game, from the First Four to the national championship.

Advertisement

Bookmark this page now and come back for our latest college basketball picks.

March Madness picks for 3/19 and 3/20

March Madness best bets and SGPs

Thursday, March 19

14 Penn vs 3 Illinois

South Region, 9:25 p.m. ET, TNT

Best bet

Questionable due to illness, Penn Quakers forward TJ Power would usually scoff at this 3-pointers prop. He has cleared it in six straight games, shooting 54.9% in that stretch.

But the Illinois Fighting Illini rank No. 44 in opposing 3-pointer percentage at 31.4%.

Obviously, tired legs from any illness will make Power’s shots tougher, and the NCAA Tournament is notorious for over-inflating the balls, emphasizing the negative impacts of any contact with the rim on a long-range shot.

Advertisement

Among these reasons to doubt Power’s shots, also recognize that Illinois is likely to slow down this game and cut into his possessions.

Read Douglas Farmer’s full Penn vs. Illinois predictions for Thursday, March 19.

SGP

9 Saint Louis vs 8 Georgia

Midwest Region, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS

Best bet

Big totals in March can feel scary, but context matters: over the last five tournaments, totals of 165+ have still gone 8-6 to the Over. Not a huge edge, but enough to trust a strong read. I’m betting accordingly.

This matchup screams pace. Both teams rank in the Top 50 in tempo and thrive in transition offensively, while struggling to defend it. That’s the perfect recipe for a track meet. Expect constant push, quick shots, and minimal resistance in the open floor. That’s exactly the environment you want when backing an Over this high.

Advertisement

Read Chris Hatfield’s full Saint Louis vs. Georgia predictions for Thursday, March 19.

SGP

15 Idaho vs 2 Houston

South Region, 10:10 p.m. ET, truTV

Best bet

Houston Cougars freshman Kingston Flemings should be the best player in the South Regional, but he also has no need to flex his muscles against the Idaho Vandals. And when Houston has been a double-digit favorite of late, Flemings has very much not flexed his muscles.

In the last four games in which the Cougars were favored by at least 10 points, Flemings has fallen short of this prop in all four and averaged 10 points.

His time will come to shine in this tournament, but it is not in the first round.

Advertisement

Read Douglas Farmer’s full Idaho vs. Houston predictions for Thurday, March 19.

SGP

14 Kennesaw State vs 3 Gonzaga

West Region, 10:00 p.m. ET, TBS

Best bet

Gonzaga wing Davis Fogle didn’t see much of the floor earlier in the season but an injury to Braden Huff opened up minutes in the lineup for the four-star freshman.

Fogle averaged just 8.3 mpg in his first 14 contests but that’s surged to 23.9 mpg over his last 14 games. He’s fresh off a career-best performance in the conference tournament final, tallying 13 points, eight rebounds, and six assists in 27 minutes.

He’s cleared 4.5 boards in three straight games and will get plenty of rebounding opportunities against the Owls who rank 19th in the country in adjusted tempo.

Advertisement

Read Rohit Ponnaiya’s full Kennesaw State vs. Gonzaga predictions for Thursday, March 19.

SGP

Friday, March 20

10 Santa Clara vs 7 Kentucky

Midwest Region, 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS

Best bet

Kentucky’s transition offense is elite, scoring an absurd 1.44 points per play (99th percentile). That’s where Oweh thrives as he’s responsible for a team-leading 7% of Kentucky’s transition scoring.

Santa Clara, meanwhile, allows 1.28 points per play in transition (one of the worst nationally). That’s a problem against Kentucky as a whole, but it’s a big issue against one of the best transition scorers in the SEC.

Why is Oweh shooting over 45% from the field? Because he gets so many easy looks. We’ll see that here.

Advertisement

Read Chris Hatfield’s full Santa Clara vs. Kentucky predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

12 Akron vs 5 Texas Tech

Midwest Region, 12:40 p.m. ET, truTV

Best bet

Texas Tech‘s drive-and-kick offense has scored at the best rate in the country this season. Literally the best. This is a problem for Akron because the Zips have struggled to stay in front of high-level guards.

Now, try to find somewhere for Akron to go on offense. Transition where they are overly reliant? Texas Tech clamps down on that at the 99th percentile.

Other key tenets of the Zips offense, like attack and kick actions, are also shut down at the 90th percentile. I don’t know how Akron hangs because I don’t know how it intends to score.

Advertisement

Read Chris Hatfield’s full Akron vs. Texas Tech predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

14 Wright State vs 3 Virginia

Midwest Region, 1:50 p.m. ET, TBS

Best bet

The Wright State Raiders offense is so rim-driven, and you’re looking at a team in the Virginia Cavaliers that’s one of the elite in the country at defending the rim this season.

Just ask Duke’s Cam Boozer, who went 3-for-17 against them in the ACC Championship game.

Wright State’s two highest-volume halfcourt actions involve the paint. The Raiders rank in the 90th percentile of frequency rate in post-ups and the 80th percentile in big cut/rolls. Virginia’s defense has killed these actions all season, ranking in the 97th percentile against both actions.

Advertisement

Read Chris Hatfield’s full Wright State vs. Virginia predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

16 LIU vs 1 Arizona

West Region, 1:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Best bet

In what should be a blowout, there’s value in backing LIU Sharks players on their props. The Wildcats play at a blistering pace, and once they build a big lead, they could rest some of their top players and won’t be quite as locked in.

LIU forward Shadrak Lasu has grabbed at least six boards in 11 of his last 15 games, averaging 7.1 rpg over that span.

The Sharks have an extremely small lineup, and Lasu is easily their biggest player at 6-foot-9. They’ll need him on the court as much as possible against Arizona’s imposing frontcourt.

Advertisement

Read Rohit Ponnaiya’s full Long Island University vs. Arizona predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

15 Tennessee State vs 2 Iowa State

Midwest Region, 2:50 p.m. ET, CBS

Best bet

The main risk here is Josh Jefferson losing minutes in a blowout, but with a line under five, it’s worth it. 

He operates as a point forward and facilitates nearly every action the Iowa State Cyclones should exploit. His passing ability makes him one of my favorite players to watch.

The Tennessee State Tigers, despite their athleticism, are a poor defensive team, especially against bigs cutting off rolls and drive-and-kick actions, where they rank in the Bottom 25%.

Advertisement

Jefferson is the primary passer in both spots, putting him in a strong position to generate assists if the game stays even moderately competitive.

Read Chris Hatfield’s full Tennessee State vs. Iowa State predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

13 Hofstra vs 4 Alabama

Midwest Region, 3:15 p.m. ET, truTV

Best bet

Without Holloway, Alabama’s half-court creation becomes a one-man show through Philon. It’s a situation that I’d back Nate Oats to manage if there was a runway. But in a one-game, pressure-packed scenario as the tournament? I’m not so sure.

Hofstra has a legit backcourt, and the Alabama defense is, well, average to put it kindly.

Advertisement

Cruz Davis averages 10 points per 100 possessions solely at the rim. The Tide have been poor there all season, especially after Charles Bediako was ruled ineligible, allowing over a point per possession on plays tagged as “rim attacks” by Synergy.

Read Chris Hatfield’s full Hofstra vs Alabama predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

13 Cal Baptist vs 4 Kansas

East Region, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS

Best bet

Kansas isn’t thinking about California Baptist.

The second the bracket dropped, KU saw Duke waiting in the second round, and thoughts of the Blue Devils started dancing in its head.

And then there’s star Darryn Peterson, whose priority has been protecting himself for the upcoming NBA Draft.

Advertisement

Kansas’ offense was in the toilet in the home stretch, especially in the opening 20 minutes. It’s averaged less than 33 first-half points in the past 10 outings, scoring fewer than 30 in four of those games.

The Lancers slow things down, protect the perimeter, and allow the 10th-fewest 1H points per game.

Read Jason Logan’s full California Baptist vs. Kansas predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

12 Northern Iowa vs 5 St. John’s

East Region, 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS

Best bet

St. John’s forward Zuby Ejiofor averaged more than seven rebounds amongst the trees of the Big East. The 6-foot-9, 245-pound senior will be battling MVC saplings in the Round of 64.

Advertisement

Northern Iowa has a couple of starters who run 6-foot-8 but are nowhere near Ejofor’s strength and athleticism.
 
For the most part, the Panthers don’t bother crashing the offensive glass and face their toughest challenge against this St. John’s defense. Ejiofor is also active on the offensive boards (3.3 per game).

Ejiofor was a beast on the glass in the Big East tournament, and projections call for 8+ rebounds versus UNI.

Read Jason Logan’s full Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

10 UCF vs 7 UCLA

East Region, 7:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Best bet

The Bruins’ late-season surge has a lot to do with Donovan Dent.

Advertisement

He dished out a dozen assists in his first two Big Ten tournament games before getting hurt and averaged almost 10 assists in the 12 games prior to that minor injury.

Dent is fine for the opener against Central Florida. The Golden Knights are one of the weakest defenses the Bruins have faced in a while, with UCF giving up 14 assists an outing and taking on a UCLA offense that ranks in the Top 40 in assist ratio.

Projections sit as high as 10.3 assists from Dent on Friday.

Read Jason Logan’s full UCF vs. UCLA predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

11 Miami (OH) vs Tennessee

Midwest Region, 4:25 p.m. ET, TBS

Advertisement

Best bet

The Tennessee Volunteers will attempt to pound the bank against a weak Miami (OH) RedHawks interior defense, and Jaylen Carey should profit from that.

Tennessee can do a masterful job of imposing its style on the opposition. If it does it here, it’ll mean plenty of half-court possessions.

We should see plenty of cuts to the rim from pick-and-rolls for Tennessee. Carey is an imposing body who can make his presence felt against a smaller team, and he’s the primary feature of these actions.

The Redhawks rank in the Bottom 20% of college basketball in defending this action.

Read Chris Hatfield’s full Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee predictions for Friday, March 20.

Advertisement

SGP

9 Utah State vs 8 Villanova

West Region, 4:05 p.m. ET, TNT

Best bet

Over the last five years, Mountain West Conference teams are 10-21 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, and they are just 5-14 ATS when removing San Diego State Aztecs from the equation. Meanwhile, the Big East Conference is 37-21 ATS over that span.

Although the Utah State Aggies excel at forcing turnovers, the Villanova Wildcats take care of the ball. The Wildcats also boast crisp ball movement and multiple outside shooters who can unlock the Aggies’ “fist” zone defense.

Despite the Wildcats having issues in their frontcourt, especially after the injury to Matthew Hodge, Utah State doesn’t have the bigs to take advantage.

Advertisement

Read Rohit Ponnaiya’s full Utah State vs. Villanova predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

9 Iowa vs 8 Clemson

South Region, 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT

Best bet

Neither the Iowa Hawkeyes nor the Clemson Tigers believe in moving quickly. The Hawkeyes play at a Bottom-10 pace in the country, while the Tigers sit just outside the Bottom-30. 

And neither shoots well from deep, with Iowa generally reluctant to heave from long range and Clemson generally middling at it. Nor does either defense emphasize forcing 3-pointers.

These two defenses will encourage elongated half-court sets, grinding down this game. A la Big Ten Tournament games of 25 years ago, this may be a moment of “first team to 60 wins,” if either team even gets to 60 points.

Advertisement

Read Douglas Farmer’s full Iowa vs. Clemson predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

15 Queens vs 2 Purdue

West Region, 7:35 p.m. ET, truTV

Best bet

The Purdue Boilermakers boast the highest-rated offense in KenPom history. They take care of the ball, shoot extremely well from everywhere on the floor, and generate second chances on the glass.

Meanwhile, the Queens University Royals are a fast-paced team who are terrible defensively. They sit outside the top 300 in adjusted defense, opponent eFG% (54%), and defensive rebounding rate. 

Queens is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS against high-major opponents this season, with the only cover coming by the hook. Purdue has the firepower to build a big lead and the depth to extend it when key starters rest.

Advertisement

Read Rohit Ponnaiya’s full Queens vs. Purdue predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

15 Furman vs 2 UConn

East Region, 10:00 p.m. ET, TBS

Best bet

The UConn Huskies may seem like a tall task for Cooper Bowser, especially with shot swatter Tarris Reed patrolling the paint.

However, the Furman Paladins‘ half-court offense starts with Bowser at the top of the circle, setting on-ball screens and moving a lot without the basketball.

Bowser’s recent output was tempered due to lineup changes, with the Paladins going smaller in the conference tournament. He scored 14 points in 24 minutes in each of the first two games before striking for 21 in 30 minutes in the final.

Advertisement

He’s tallied 12 + points in 14 of his last 17 games and is projected for 13 points on Friday.

Read Jason Logan’s full Furman vs. UConn predictions for Friday, March 20.

SGP

March Madness betting 101

Single elimination changes everything. One cold shooting night or foul trouble can end a season, so aim for good prices and smart risk, not “can’t-miss” takes.

Start with the basics

Spread: In point spread betting, you’re wagering on how close the game stays. In the tournament, late-game fouling can turn a tight cover into a bad beat (or vice versa).

Moneyline: Moneyline betting is often the cleanest way to play a true March Madness upset, but you risk losing more frequently if you wager just on underdogs.

Total: Pace and shot quality matter in Over/Under betting, but so do tournament quirks like neutral rims, tight legs, and whistle changes.

Neutral-site mindset

Games aren’t played in familiar gyms, and crowds can be split. Travel, time zones, and quick turnarounds can matter, especially for teams that rely heavily on energy, depth, or shooting rhythm. When in doubt, lean on repeatable traits: defense, rebounding, and turnover control.

Why single elimination matters

Underdogs can be live because favorites feel pressure and have less room to “play through” a bad stretch. But favorites can also separate late when depth and free throws matter. Think in game scripts:

• Take the underdog + points if they can control tempo, defend without fouling, and protect the ball.

• Sprinkle a unit on the moneyline if they have a clear matchup advantage (e.g., elite 3-point volume vs weak perimeter D).

• Bet on the favorite if they can force turnovers, dominate the glass, or punish inside.

First half vs full game betting

Early nerves and unfamiliar sightlines can create slow starts. If you expect a tactical feel-out period, 1H Unders or 1H underdog spreads can be sharper than full game.

Overtime and endgame chaos

OT is usually included in spreads/totals, and late fouling can add 10–20 “free” points. Totals can swing wildly in the final minute, but don’t panic if you’re on the right side of pace and shot quality.

Still need help? Our Covers hoops analysts are here to provide you with March Madness expert picks from the First Four to the National Championship Game.

Popular March Madness betting markets

March Madness is a betting buffet – the key is picking the right market for your edge.

Futures: Futures are best when you’re early or disagree with the bracket. Conference tourney week and Selection Sunday can create mispriced numbers on title, Final Four odds, March Madness MVP odds, and region winner odds. Shop prices, and remember: a “good team” isn’t always a good futures bet if the path is brutal.

Game lines: The spread, moneyline, and total are the bread and butter once the bracket starts. Neutral courts, quick turnarounds, and unfamiliar sightlines can impact shooting (and totals) especially early. If you have a strong pace or matchup read, consider team totals or 1st half bets to isolate the edge.

Props: March Madness props shine when roles are stable and matchups are clear: usage, minutes, foul risk, and opponent style (rim protection, pace, rebounding). Ladders and alt lines can be powerful, but keep stakes smaller.

Same-game parlays: SGPs can be fun, but value varies. Compare the parlay payout to betting legs individually, and prioritize lines you’d play on their own.

And be sure to check out our expert NCAA bracket picks before the action begins!

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.