The Iowa Hawkeyes (21-12, 10-10) have their dancing shoes again! After missing out on the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two seasons, Ben McCollum and company have them back and facing a stout matchup in the 8-seeded Clemson Tigers (24-10, 12-6).
The Tigers started their conference season on an absolute tear – they raced to a 10-1 ACC record and peaked in the AP Poll at 18th. That’s a pretty fair read on their resume, as their best win during the timeframe was a home win against Miami (FL). The only other tourney teams they had beaten up until that point were SMU and a neutral win against Georgia.
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As their schedule tightened up, the losses piled. They bounced back with a win against Louisville (their best on the season) and little run in the ACC Tournament where they took down Wake Forest and North Carolina before losing to Duke.
Like Iowa their calling card is defense. KenPom ranks them 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency and they’re holding opponents to 66.7 points/game, 29th in the country. As mentioned earlier, much of this is due to their preferred pace of play.
While they don’t have a bell cow like the Hawks, they are incredibly balanced and use a deep bench. 8 guys average about 20 minutes or more per game with KenPom calculating their bench minutes at 37.9%, good for 46th in the country. Each of them averaging 5 or more points/game and are the 28th most experienced team in the country.
However, Carter Wellington, their starting center, won’t be one of them later today as he tore his ACL in their matchup against Wake Forest. At 6’10”, he led the Tigers in rebounding and was their #2 scorer. While the 10.9 points/game is one thing, his defense is another. Though he averaged just shy of 1 block/game, it translated into a 4.7% block percentage (13th in the ACC). He was also nationally ranked by KenPom as a rebounder with an 8.2% offensive rebounding rate and 23.7% on defense.
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Jake Wahlin, at 6’10” and 210, returned to the starting lineup in Wellington’s absence, though he doesn’t have the same beef as the 240-pound Wellington. 6’10” senior Nick Davidson will also see plenty of time in the middle. Neither Wahlin nor Davidson have the same per possession stats of Wellington.
RJ Godfrey was the leading scorer throughout their season, at 11.6 points/game. Almost all his shots come from 2, and he’s efficient there. 87% of his shots were dunks or close 2s, according to Bart Torvik.
Though his highlights at North Carolina demonstrate a little more ball skill than Iowa forward Cam Manyawu, that’s what these highlights remind me of. His 22 points in Chapel Hill were a career high. With Clemson operating primarily 4-out, this gives him driving lanes in isolation and as a roller on pick-and-rolls.
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On the perimeter, the Tigers aren’t going to set you on fire from deep with deep bench players Dallas Thomas (57.9% in 4.5 minutes/game) and Chase Thompson (40.0% at 8.8 minutes/game) leading the team from 3. Among heavy rotation guys, Davidson leads them at 35.4%, though 5 others are above 32.2%.
Jestin Porter, at 34.3% on the season, is the most likely to catch fire from deep. He hit 5/9 against BYU in December and had a pair of games where he hit 4 (wins against Georgia & Louisville). Stretch big Davidson has two games of 4 threes, including a 4/4 game against UNC in the conference tournament.
So what’s this all mean for Iowa? Clemson’s O does rate well below the Hawkeyes in efficiency (72nd vs 31st, per KenPom) but does one thing especially well: hold onto the ball. Their 14.2% turnover rate ranks 29th in the country and is a strength on strength matchup with the Hawks defensive TO rate of 21.0%, 13th in the country. If the Hawks can turn Clemson over, it takes away a huge strength, provided Iowa can avoid fouling toooo much, as they’ve allowed a ton of free throws.
Despite the Tigers’ relative size, they are not especially adept from 2, shooting 53.7% from inside the arc. That’s been Iowa’s weakest area defensively, as they allow 54.1% in that area. Both of these teams are pretty obsessed with pace, which means their offensive rebounding rates low, as each team prioritizes getting back in transition defensively.
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The Hawks biggest strength on offense has been from 2 at 58.9% (16th) does matchup with Clemson’s ability to stop two-pointers (49.0%). How much does that change with no Wellington? UNC shot above their season average but Duke was held below it so that remains to be seen.
One thing is for certain: Bennett Stirtz should be the best player on the court. At 20.0 points and 4.5 assists per game, he leads all players in both categories. And after some rest, he can tap into his performance against Missouri where they upset those Tigers with a line of: 21 points on 8/11 shooting and 4 assists. The only other Bulldog in double figures was Tavion Banks’ 15 points off the bench.
Though Clemson’s 3-point defense is pretty good, it’s buoyed by non-conference play. They’ve allowed 35.5% from deep in conference play, 12th out of 18 teams. Cooper Koch has been hot and got 19/34 in the last 5 games.
As an 8/9 matchup, it’s a toss up. Clemson is 17-0 when holding teams under 66 points, which includes 9 wins against conference opponents. Iowa, despite the slow pace, has been held under that threshold just 5 times, though it includes wins over Nebraska & Grand Canyon.
Race to 66? Sounds like fun. Let’s go Hawks.
