UFC London is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., March 22, 2025) from the famous O2 Arena in London, England. In the Paramount+-streamed main event, No. 1-ranked Featherweight Movsar Evloev collides with No. 3-seeded Lerone Murphy in a possible number one contender fight.
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We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in London when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC London betting lock in the comments section below (see full UFC London odds here)
Last week’s recap: WE ARE BACK IN THE WIN COLUMN AFTER A BRUTAL SKID! Always believe in Brad Tavares to go to a decision.
Let’s keep rolling below:
In the UFC London co-main event, rising prospect Luke Riley takes on Michael Aswell in a matchup that feels more like a showcase than a toss-up but should be fun nonethless. This week, I’m locking in Riley on the moneyline at -198.
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Here’s why:
For years, Riley was one of the best prospects outside of the UFC and after FINALLY making his UFC debut last years at UFC Qatar — he showed why he is one of most talked-about prospects in all of MMA (watch highlights). His striking is explosive, sharp, and incredibly composed for a young fighter. He doesn’t just throw with power — he picks his shots, controls distance, and capitalizes on openings with precision. In 12 fights, he has nine stoppages.
It’s the kind of skill set that translates immediately at the highest level.
There’s a reason he’s sitting in the co-main event slot here — the UFC clearly views him as a future star. Fighters don’t get that kind of push unless they show something special, and Riley did exactly that in his UFC debut. His ability to dictate the pace, manage range, and land the cleaner shots should give him a clear edge over Aswell.
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Simply put, Riley is just the more complete fighter. While Aswell is tough and willing, he doesn’t bring the same level of technical striking or overall polish. Riley should be able to control where this fight takes place, keep it at his preferred range, and gradually separate himself over the course of the fight.
While there is a possiblity of a finish, expect Riley to completely style on Aswell.
Add in the home crowd energy, the spotlight of a co-main event, and a clear talent gap, and it’s easy to see why Riley is favored here. Plus, if you want to play MMA Math — Riley knocked out Bogdan Grad, where Aswell lost a split decision to Grad.
What could go wrong?
Aswell’s clearest path is to turn this into a grind. If he can close the distance, mix in grappling, and use cage control, he could slow the fight down and potentially steal rounds on the scorecards.
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Still, given the skill gap, momentum, and overall trajectory, Riley’s ML at -198 looks like one of the safest plays on the UFC London card.
Luke Riley To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +225
Luke Riley To Win By Submission: +1800
Luke Riley To Win By Decision: +120
Michael Aswell To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +450
Michael Aswell by Submission: +2200
Michael Aswell To Win By Decision: +550
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC London: “Evloev vs. Murphy” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
