March Madness odds, lines, predictions: Expert picks for 2026 NCAA Tournament games on Day 3 (March 21) originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Four double-digit seeds and a pair of No. 9 seeds have a chance to make the Sweet 16 on Saturday. How much chaos is in store for the second weekend?
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The Atlantic 10 has a pair of double-digit underdogs that will look to make a statement.
No. 9 St. Louis can set the tone against No. 1 Michigan in the first game of the second round on Saturday. Both teams scored more than 100 points in the first round – so this has the potential to be the best game of the tournament. Can the Billikens pull off the first upset of the day?
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No. 11 VCU takes on No. 3 Illinois in the other Atlantic 10-Big Ten showdown. The Rams rallied from a 19-point deficit to beat No. 6 North Carolina 82-78 in the first round. The Illini were the third team to score more than 100 points on Day 1.
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No. 10 Texas A&M, No. 11 Texas and No. 12 High Point – which pulled of the first 5-12 upset of the tournament in a 83-82 thriller against No. 5 Wisconsin – also are looking to advance. Sporting News will pick every first-round game over the next two days. Here are our picks for Day 3.
March Madness picks, predictions for Round 2
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No. 1 Michigan (-12.5) vs. No. 9 St. Louis (Midwest), 12:10 p.m., CBS
Best game of the weekend? Michigan beat Howard 101-80. Aday Mara and Morez Johnson combined for 40 points on 16 of 18 shooting. St. Louis blitzed Georgia 102-77, and five Billikens had at least four assists. This game will operate at a frantic pace, and the key will be Michigan point guard Elliot Cadeau limiting turnovers. Robbie Avila – who shoots 41.7% from 3-point range – is the X-factor for St. Louis. The Wolverines are 7-0 S/U but 0-7 ATS when favored between 10-15 points.
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Pick: Michigan 88, St. Louis 85
MORE: NBA scouting report for SLU’s Robbie Avila
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No. 3 Michigan State (-4) vs. No. 6 Louisville (East), 2:45 p.m., CBS
Trust the Spartans in March? It’s easier when Jeremy Fears Jr. – who had 11 assists in the 92-67 victory against North Dakota State – is playing at a high level. Tom Izzo has a chance to get Michigan State to the Sweet 16 for the third time in four seasons. Louisville shot 52% from 3-point range, with Isaac McNeely hitting seven 3-pointers. The Spartans are 1-3 S/U when opposing teams make 13 shots from 3-point range. That’s the stat to watch. Izzo leads the Spartans to the Sweet 16 for the 17th time during his tenure.
Pick: Michigan State 84, Louisville 75
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No. 1 Duke (-11) vs. No. 9 TCU (East), 5:15 p.m., CBS
Duke survived a first-round scare against Siena in a 71-65 victory – and Cameron Boozer had 22 points and 13 rebounds. It was Boozer’s ability to get to the free-throw line (13 of 14) that will challenge TCU forward David Punch – who had 13 points and 11 rebounds in a 66-64 victory against Ohio State. Duke center Patrick Ngongba (foot) is questionable. The Horned Frogs are 10-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Cayden Boozer had 19 points and five assists with no turnovers in the first round.
Pick: Duke 79, TCU 70
DECOURCY: Duke’s struggle with Siena was alarming
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No. 2 Houston (-10) vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (South), 6:10 p.m., TNT
These teams met in the NCAA Tournament in 2024 – and Houston won a 100-95 overtime thriller. It’s a contrast in styles between the Cougars’ swarming defense and Texas A&M’s up-tempo style under first-year coach Bucky McMillan. Houston freshman Kingston Flemings had 18 points, six rebounds and four assists in the first round. Both teams have balanced scoring. The Aggies ranked 14th in the NCAA with 29.9 three-point attempts per game. How many will fall against the Cougars? The Aggies are 1-5 S/U and 2-4 ATS as an underdog of five points or more.
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Pick: Houston 78, Texas A&M 66
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No. 3 Gonzaga (-5.5) vs. No. 11 Texas, 7:10 p.m., truTV
Can Texas win three games in five days? Matas Voikietatis had 23 points and 16 rebounds in a 79-71 victory against No. 6 BYU. The Longhorns have the frontcourt scoring to hang with the Bulldogs, who will counter with forward Graham Ike. He had 19 points and eight rebounds in a 73-64 victory against Kennesaw State. We do not think the Bulldogs will shoot 3 of 18 from 3-point range again, which was well below their season average of 34%.
Pick: Gonzaga 79, Texas 71
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No. 3 Illinois (-10.5) vs. No. 11 VCU (South), 7:50 p.m., CBS
Illinois blasted Penn in the first round, and the Illini have an elite combination of height and scoring with the freshman tandem of Keaton Wagler (17.9 ppg.) and David Mirkovic (13.8 ppg.). The Rams have to stay around their average of 10.5 turnovers per game. VCU is 1-4 S/U as an underdog, and the victory against No. 6 North Carolina was the first time they scored 80 points in one of those games.
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Pick: Illinois 80, VCU 73
DECOURCY: VCU’s tradition earns another stripe with UNC win
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No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt (-2.5) (South), 8:45 p.m., TNT
Nebraska won its first tournament game in school history behind 23 points from Pryce Sandfort in a 76-47 victory against No. 13 Troy. Sandfort hit seven 3-pointers. The Huskers had just six turnovers. That will be the key against the Commodores, who feature guards Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles. They combined for 39 points in a 68-58 victory against No. 12 McNeese. Look for the Commodores to make their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2007.
Pick: Vanderbilt 84, Nebraska 78
MORE: Nebraska radio announcer has emotional reaction to first NCAA win
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No. 4 Arkansas (-11) vs. No. 12 High Point (West), 9:45 p.m., truTV
High Point is the sleeper of the moment after a thrilling 83-82 victory against No. 5 Wisconsin. Guard Rob Martin had 23 points and 10 assists, and the Panthers hit 15 of 40 from 3-point range. Arkansas defends the 3-point line well. Darius Acuff Jr. had 24 points and seven assists, and all five Razorbacks hit double figures. John Calipari leads Arkansas back to the Sweet 16 for the second straight season. High Point is 3-3 S/U when it scores 78 points or less.
Pick: Arkansas 88, High Point 75
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