March Madness odds, lines, predictions: Expert picks for 2026 NCAA Tournament games on Day 4 (March 22) originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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Who will fill out the rest of the Sweet 16?
The first weekend of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament concludes Sunday, and two blue-blood matchups in the East Region come into focus.
No. 4 Kansas meets No. 5 St. John’s in a second-round matchup featuring coaches Bill Self and Rick Pitino. No. 2 UConn takes on No. 7 UCLA in another huge second-round matchup with coaches Dan Hurley and Mick Cronin. Will the Big East get a sweep in those matchups?
No. 1 Florida and No. 1 Arizona will look to advance to the Sweet 16 after blowout victories in the first round. Chalk has dominated the tournament to this point. Will the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds – which also includes Purdue and Iowa State – keep that narrative spinning heading into the second weekend?
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Sporting News will pick every game of the NCAA Tournament. We finished 24-8 S/U and 14-18 ATS in the first round and 6-2 S/U and 4-4 ATS on Saturday. Odds courtesy of Caesars:
March Madness picks, predictions for Round 2
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No. 2 Purdue (-7.5) vs. No. 7 Miami (West), 12:10 p.m., CBS
Will Miami disrupt Purdue’s efficiency on both ends of the floor? The Boilermakers average 22.2 assists per game and are allowing just 67 points per game through a five-game win streak. Miami point guard Tre Donaldson faced Purdue three times last year while at Michigan – so the matchup with all-time assists leader Braden Smith is exciting. Malik Reneau needs to have another monster game for Miami to pull the upset. The Hurricanes are 7-3 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or less.
Pick: Purdue 78, Miami 74
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No. 2 Iowa State (-4.5) vs. No. 7 Kentucky (Midwest), 2:45 p.m., CBS
Otega Oweh’s incredible buzzer beater saved Kentucky’s season – and now the Wildcats look to make the Sweet 16 for the second straight season under coach Mark Pope. The Cyclones are shooting 43.8% from 3-point range since the start of the Big 12 tournament – which is well ahead of Kentucky’s 3-point defense at 34.2%. Milan Momcilovic (49.4%) is a matchup problem. The Wildcats are 0-6 S/U and 1-5 ATS as an underdog of six points or less – and they lost those games by an average of 14.5 points per game. The Cyclones likely will be without star forward Joshua Jefferson, which opens the door for Kentucky.
Pick: Iowa State 77, Kentucky 70
MORE:Latest on Joshua Jefferson’s status
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No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 5 St. John’s (-3.5) (East), 5:15 p.m., CBS
This is a make-or-break game for a lot of brackets. The Jayhawks and Red Storm have only had two matchups this century – and Kansas won both. Jayahawks star Darryn Peterson had 28 points in the first round against No. 13 Cal Baptist. Zuby Ejiofor leads the St. John’s attack; which had four players total at least five rebounds in the first round against No. 12 Northern Iowa. This promises to be a physical matchup in the paint. Which team knocks down more shots from the perimeter? Will Peterson take over the game? Kansas is 4-6 S/U and 4-6 ATS as an underdog. St. John’s is 1-1 S/U and 1-1 ATS when favored by five points or less.
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Pick: St. John’s 76, Kansas 71
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No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 6 Tennessee (-1.5) (Midwest), 6:10 p.m., TNT
Tennessee is looking to make a fourth straight Sweet 16 appearance, and Jak’Kobi Gillespie is coming off a 29-point performance in a 78-56 victory against No. 11 Miami. Virginia shook off a slow start against No. 14 Wright State in a 82-73 victory. They will need more from Thijs De Ridder against the Vols. Tennessee forward Nate Ament was limited with nagging ankle and knee injuries. That’s another injury to keep an eye on. The Cavaliers are 3-2 S/U and 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and those losses were to Duke.
Pick: Virginia 68, Tennessee 67
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No. 1 Florida (-10.5) vs. No. 9 Iowa (South), 7:10 p.m., TBS
Florida erupted for 114 points in the first round with seven players hitting double figures – which could lead to heavy action in their favor against the Hawkeyes. The Gators can control the glass with Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu – who has 19 double-doubles this season. Iowa leading scorer Bennett Stirtz is shooting under 30 percent from 3-point range in Iowa’s last five games and shot just 4-17 from the floor in the Hawkeyes’ win against Clemson. He’ll need to be better, and the Hawkeyes will try to control the tempo. Iowa is 3-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog, and those games were against Iowa State, Michigan and Purdue.
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Pick: Florida 84, Iowa 75
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No. 1 Arizona (-11.5) vs. No. 9 Utah State, 7:50 p.m., truTV
Utah State is looking to make the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1970. The Aggies are 55-14 under second-year coach Jerrod Calhoun – and this feels like an all-in spot. Can they keep up with the Wildcats, who shot 53.3% from the field in the first round? Utah State is shooting 26.3% from 3-point range since the Mountain West Conference tournament.That can’t happen here because Arizona is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.
Pick: Arizona 88, Utah State 74
MORE:Tommy Lloyd is the Sporting News Coach of the Year
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No. 2 UConn (-4) vs. No. 7 UCLA, 8:45 p.m., TNT
Both teams have key injuries. Will UConn guard Silas Demary Jr. (ankle) or UCLA forward Tyler Bilodeau (knee) play? Bruins guard Donovan Dent (calf) returned but shot just 4 of 17 in the 75-71 victory against No. 11 UCF. What does UConn forward Tarris Reed Jr. have in store for an encore after a 31-point, 27-rebound performance in a 82-71 victory against No. 15 Furman. This one will be close into the second half, but the Huskies still have the edge with Reed.
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Pick: UConn 76, UCLA 68
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No. 4 Alabama (-1) vs. No. 5 Texas Tech, 9:45 p.m., TBS
The Crimson Tide are a slim favorite against Texas Tech in what should be an up-tempo game. The Red Raiders shot 55% from 3-point range in a 91-71 victory. Jaylen Petty had 24 points on five 3-pointers. Alabama is still without Aden Holloway, who was arrested on felony drug charges on March 16. Labaron Philon scored 28 points in the first round, however, and the Crimson Tide will push the tempo against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 4-5 S/U when they allow 80 points or more.
Pick: Alabama 85, Texas Tech 82
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