The NHL playoff race is reaching it’s peak this year, no where more than in the competitive and tight Eastern Conference. While the West is something of a pillow fight in the Pacific and a turtle race in general (Nashville is on a statistical pace for 89 points and currently holding a playoff spot), the East is a much more unforgiving place to be. The Islanders and Red Wings are currently on pace for 97 points and find themselves below the playoff line as of this morning.
Here’s the standings as of today.
It’s tough times in Detroit, the Red Wings are just 5-6-2 since play resumed after the Olympics and now in serious trouble with their playoff outlook. While Detroit’s season pace may be for 97 points, that is dropping by the game with their recent results in shambles. Ottawa, boasting a 10-2-2 record since the break, have now pulled ahead of Detroit.
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It’s a similar story in the Metropolitan Division, where a run by the Columbus Blue Jackets (9-2-4) have overtaken the Penguins and Islanders in the standings as of this morning with 11 games to play, 10 for NYI.
Further down the line, any spoiler hopes for a last gasp run by Philadelphia and Washington took major hits with regulation losses last night. The four point swing in the Flyers/Blue Jackets game last night could have meant just a three point separation had the Flyers won last night. Instead, they lost and now are seven points behind Columbus and five points behind the playoff line, dealing a serious blow to any far-flung playoff hopes.
The Penguins have been in a mode of hanging on lately, their 17 games in March is an NHL high and presented a monumental challenge. They’ve had to do much of it without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. They have had some great moments lately – like an OT comeback win over Boston and a great performance against Colorado mixed in with some ugly defeats to Carolina, Vegas and the Avalanche. Monday’s upcoming game against NYI is looming absolutely massive for the potential fortunes of both teams.
Here’s some models on the Pens’ current outlooks:
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The Athletic: 72%
Hockey Stats: 84%
Moneypuck: 75.2%
Hockey Reference: 80.2%
Most of the models remain fairly bullish on Pittsburgh, in part due to the remaining schedule. The Pens have gotten through much of their toughest games (though Ottawa and Dallas are on the horizon) and now statistically have the 20th easiest strength of schedule based on points% of remaining opponents. Less than 10 days ago, Pittsburgh had the No. 1 toughest remaining schedule, which speaks to how many quality opponents they’ve dealt with recently – four of the Pens’ last five games have been played against Carolina or Colorado who make up two of the top three teams in the league. Pittsburgh negotiated that to a 1-2-1 record and soon will finish off the season with six games against non-playoff opponents (two against Florida and Washington, New Jersey and St. Louis).
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On the other hand, the toughest remaining schedules in the whole league belong to: NYI, BOS, CBJ and OTT, direct competitors for the Penguins. Schedule strength only accounts for so much and is no guarantee of success, both NYI and Boston lost last night in what should have been games they needed results against Chicago and Toronto, respectively. Teams still have to play the games and get the results, though it’s preferable to have an easier path it also doesn’t bring any promises.
In that outlook, there’s some reason for optimism, the Pens have made it through the absolute toughest part of their schedule and found a way to pick up a few points and remain slightly above the fray. Soon they need to take advantage of what remains. That won’t be immediate with the upcoming games of playing in Ottawa and hosting Dallas in the coming days will present big challenges but relief could be coming after that.
Ultimately and easily enough for the Penguins, if they stay ahead of NYI AND Detroit then the Pens will make the playoffs. Should Columbus cool off a little and the Pens slip by them, it becomes an even easier proposition. Pittsburgh (with 29 regulation wins compared to 27 for Detroit and 26 for the Islanders) also figure to hold that tiebreaker over both clubs below them, so it could presumably even be more favorable since those teams actually have to gain more points in the standings to pass the Pens.
Interestingly enough, Pittsburgh plays NYI on Monday and then Detroit on Tuesday next week. Both of those games will present massive opportunities to deal blows to the opposition’s chances of being able to end up ahead of Pittsburgh by the end of the year. There still could be bigger games at the very end of the season for absolute ‘must win’ situations, but the upcoming games against NYI and DET are about as big as it gets for importance.
