Just 16 teams remain in the 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament as March Madness moves into the regional rounds in Fort Worth, Texas, and Sacramento, California, this weekend.
Like many women’s tournaments in past years, the opening rounds were pretty chalky. The only teams to advance that weren’t among the top 16 overall seeds are No. 5 Kentucky, No. 6 Notre Dame and, improbably, No. 10 Virginia. The Cavaliers are still dancing in the tournament’s second weekend for the first time since 2000 after beating Arizona State, Georgia and Iowa. Virginia is the first team since the tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2022 to advance to the Sweet 16 out of the First Four.
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Are we due for extra doses of madness in the Sweet 16? Typically, this round and the Elite Eight are when the upsets happen. Or, will we see all four No. 1 seeds — UConn, UCLA, South Carolina and Texas — advance to the Final Four for the second consecutive season?
Here are a few bold predictions ahead of Friday’s games.
Hannah Hidalgo will have a triple-double against Vanderbilt
Two of the most electric players in the country will face off in the opening game of the Sweet 16 when No. 2 Vanderbilt takes on No. 6 Notre Dame Friday (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). The matchup pits Hannah Hidalgo of the Fighting Irish against Mikayla Blakes of the Commodores. Both are New Jersey natives, both won their conference’s Player of the Year awards and both were unanimous USA TODAY Sports All-Americans.
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Hidalgo has willed the Irish to victory for most of the season. She’s third in the nation in scoring with 25.2 points per game and first nationally in steals with 5.6 per game. She also leads Niele Ivey’s squad in rebounds and assists.
Hidalgo has one triple-double this season, pulling it off in a non-conference win over Bellarmine. But in Notre Dame’s first-round NCAA Tournament win over Fairfield, she actually flirted with a quadruple-double by piling up 23 points, nine rebounds, six assists and eight steals.
She’s had double-digit steals four times this season, double-digit rebounds three times and double-digit assists twice. To pull off an upset over Vanderbilt though, Notre Dame is going to need Hidalgo at her best all over the court.
Clara Strack will make multiple 3-pointers vs. Texas
Kentucky junior Clara Strack is a bit of a unicorn. The 6-foot-5 center is the only player in the country this season averaging at least 16 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks per game. She’s a monster in the paint and has the ability to both protect the rim and score inside with ease.
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But she can also stretch the floor. In Kentucky’s SEC Tournament win over Georgia, Strack swished 5-of-7 3-pointers, setting a career-high mark for makes from behind the arc. Kentucky coach Kenny Brooks has made it clear that, if Strack is open from long range, he wants her to take those shots.
“I’ve taken a beating sometimes because people say I let her shoot too many 3s, but it’s part of the bigger picture, and part of the bigger picture was that Clara is going to play in the WNBA one day. If she’s going to play and stick, and I want her to be a really good player in the W, she’s going to have to learn how to shoot from the outside,” Brooks said. “She shoots as well as anyone. It’s just a matter of her learning how to shoot them in a game. She’s starting to get more and more comfortable.”
Strack went 0-of-4 from 3-point land against Texas the first time Kentucky faced the Longhorns this season. If Strack makes those looks this time around, it could swing the game in the Wildcats’ favor.
North Carolina will cover the spread vs. UConn
The undefeated Huskies are coming off absolutely hammering Syracuse in the second round by a score of 98-45. According to BetMGM, they are favored by 27.5 points against No. 4 North Carolina.
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UConn will likely win, but that spread is much too large. The Tar Heels haven’t lost a game by double figures since early January and haven’t done much losing at all recently, winning 15 of their last 17 games. Courtney Banghart’s squad is also one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking inside the top 25 nationally in defensive rating, field goal percentage defense and rebound rate.
North Carolina is eighth overall in defensive rating. The last time UConn faced a team that ranked in the top 15 of that statistic was Michigan — a game the Huskies won by just three points.
Perhaps no coach in the country outside of Geno Auriemma knows Sarah Strong’s game as well as Banghart, who aggressively recruited the North Carolina product when she was a high school prospect playing miles south of Chapel Hill.
The last time UNC met UConn on a neutral court — last season — the Huskies won by 11 thanks to 29 points from Paige Bueckers.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Women’s March Madness Sweet 16 predictions: UNC to cover vs. UConn
