• What: 3-seed Michigan State vs. 2-seed Connecticut, NCAA tournament East Regional semifinal
• When: Approx. 9:45 p.m. Friday
• Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 201
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• Records/Rankings: MSU is 27-7 overall, finishing second in the Big Ten at 15-5, before falling in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. The Spartans are ranked No. 11 in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches polls. The Spartans are No. 11 in the NET rankings and No. 9 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Connecticut is 31-5 overall, having finished 17-3 in the Big East regular season, before losing in the Big East tournament championship. The Huskies are ranked No. 7 in both the major polls, while being No. 10 in the NET rankings and No. 10 in Kenpom.
• Betting line: Connecticut -2
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 765-309 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Connecticut — Danny Hurley is 347-179 in his 16th season as a head coach, including 196-74 in his eighth season with the Huskies. He had previous head coaching stops at Rhode Island and Wagner.
• Series: MSU is 4-4 against UConn all-time, all since 1998, winning the two most recent matchups — on Thanksgiving 2021 in the Bahamas, and in late November 2017 at the PK80 in Portland, Oregon. They’ve also met in two notable NCAA tournament games — in the Final Four in 2009, won by MSU, and in the Elite Eight in 2014, won by the Huskies.
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Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 11.0
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.6
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 12.0
SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 5.9
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.3
Connecticut
C (5) Tarris Reed (6-11) 14.2
F (1) Alex Karaban (6-8) 13.3
G (11) Braylon Mullins (6-6) 12.1
G (1) Solo Ball (6-4) 13.0
G (2) Silas Demary Jr. (6-4) 10.6
• MSU update: The Spartans are in the Sweet 16 by way of wins over North Dakota State and Louisville in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. It’s their third trip to the Sweet 16 in four seasons and 17th in the last 28 years, since making their first regional semifinal under Izzo in 1998. The Spartans are up to No. 22 in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom, which means they’d no longer be an outlier if they were to win a national championship. Every national champion in the Kenpom era (1997-present) — other than UConn in 2014 — has been ranked in the top 22 in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Spartans are 13th defensively. They remain No. 1 in defensive rebounding percentage and are No. 9 in offensive rebounding. Their 3-point percentage is up to 36.5% after shooting better than 42% over the last nine games, during which they’ve gone 7-2, after losing three of four games in early February. MSU is a relatively experienced NCAA tournament team at this point, with 32 combined NCAA tournament games played among starters Jeremy Fears Jr., Coen Carr, Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper.
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• UConn update: The Huskies are coming off NCAA tournament wins over 15-seed Furman (82-71) and 7-seed UCLA (73-57), which followed some uninspiring performances. UConn lost at Marquette to close the regular season — which cost them a share of the Big East title — and then fell hard to St. John’s in the Big East tournament championship. Huskies point guard Silas Demary Jr. played through discomfort, but returned for UConn’s game against UCLA on Sunday after suffering an ankle injury in the Big East tournament. The status of reserve forward Jaylin Stewart, who missed both of the Huskies’ first two NCAA tournament games, is still up in the air. UConn is back in the Sweet 16 after losing in the second round a year ago to eventual national champion Florida. UConn won the two previous national championships, in 2023 and 2024.
• Matchup analysis: UConn’s offense under Danny Hurley is one of the best things you’ll see in college basketball, when it’s working — a ton of sets and cuts and screens away from the action. Tom Izzo is a Hall of Famer for his defense. Hurley will one day be in for his offense. Personnel-wise, there are two tricky matchups for the Spartans, 6-8 forward Alex Karaban and 6-11 center Tarris Reed Jr. Karajan is a savvy player, who’s quick enough on the drive and can beat you with a floater, but he is a deadly shooter from the top of the key out beyond 25 feet. In the first meeting, MSU had Carson Cooper chasing him around. They realized that won’t do. Expect MSU to switch on Karaban and use a lot of Cam Ward and Coen Carr on him. Carr is the ideal matchup, if he’s up for it and can keep out of foul trouble.
Reed is a lot to handle in the paint and on the glass. He’s stronger and quicker than he was early in his career at Michigan. Reed didn’t play in the exhibition against MSU, but Jaxon Kohler, especially, is very familiar with him, having played against him numerous times on the AAU circuit and in high school. Kohler and Cooper have to make sure they stay out of foul trouble guarding him and battling him on the glass.
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Guard Solo Ball is a high-volume shooter who hasn’t been anywhere near as efficient this season as last. He’s below 30% on 233 3-point tries. But he was above 40% a year ago, so you have to guard him. The Huskies, at times, look like they could win a national championship this year. At other times, they’re surprisingly vulnerable. They rank just 30th in offensive efficiency, which is surprising. A lot of that has to do with volume shooters Ball and freshman Braylon Mullins shooting low percentages from beyond the arc. But there’s considerable talent on this roster.
• Prediction: The MSU team we saw at Purdue, at Michigan, against Louisville, that MSU team can beat this UConn team, without UConn having to play poorly. The question is, if both teams have a stellar day, who’s the better team? I think the answer is UConn, by a nose. Physically, this could be blood bath.
• Make it: UConn 74, MSU 70
MORE: Couch: A look at what’s in store for MSU Athletics as Spartan Ventures gets set to launch
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Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. UConn prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
