ESPN’s initial SP+ rankings put the Florida Gators at No. 20 heading into the 2026 season.
SP+ creator Bill Connelly uses four primary factors for his preseason projections. The most important piece is “returning production.” These are proven players within a program that should produce similar results. Next is “recent history,” which accounts for how well (or poorly) a team has performed in recent memory. A one-year boom program is less stable than a consistent 10-game winner.
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The final two factors, “recent recruiting” and “coaching change effects,” are weighted less heavily. Ten years ago, recruiting made up nearly a quarter of the preseason formula. Now it’s down to a few percentage points. The transfer portal has made this part of the equation much harder to predict. Coaching changes typically bring teams back to the 20-year S+ baseline. With Florida replacing Billy Napier with Jon Sumrall, the Gators are expected to improve after underperforming the last four years.
“SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” Connelly reminds readers. “It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.”
With all that in mind, Florida’s No. 19 placement on the preseason list is still surprising. The Gators 14.9 SP+ rating still ranks ninth in the SEC, but it’s a reminder of just how hard being in this conference makes things. Florida’s 15.9 defensive SP+ ranks 12th in the nation, and its 30.2 offensive SP+ ranks 39th. Despite a complete special teams overhaul, Florida ranks 17th with a 0.5 SP+ in that phase of the game.
The numbers will be updated again in August, but Connelly’s numbers tend to be fair. While a top-20 spot in these rankings doesn’t translate to a top-25 ranking in either major poll, Florida should field a competitive team in 2026, particularly on defense.
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2026 ESPN Initial SP+ Rankings
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida football a top-20 team on ESPN SP+ rankings
