UConn Scouting Report: What to know and how Illinois can win

In the afterglow of super soakers, cowboy hats, and Kylan Boswell teaching David Mirkovic how to cut down a net, the conquering Illini are back in Champaign and preparing for a revenge game against UConn.

On Sunday, I was already thinking about what to write about how Illinois can poke holes in Duke’s long, fierce switching defense, until UConn came storming back from 19 points back and stole it just before the buzzer, in perhaps the most stunning tourney comeback since Illinois’ last Elite Eight win.

Now, there is talk about Dan Hurley’s March genius and UConn being a team of destiny, but it just takes remembering how things ended for Illinois against Sean May and his three striped friends to realize that destiny can be taken from you very quickly. We’ll hear all week about 30-0. About how UConn handled Illinois easily in November.

None of that matters now, as both teams have drastically changed since November (and are COMPLETELY different than two years ago).

Let’s take a look now at who UConn is, what they do, and how Illinois can come away victorious in this one.

Players to Know

Tarris Reed, 6-foot-11 senior center

In the first matchup against UConn, the Michigan transfer was a shell of himself in his first game back from a sprained ankle, playing just 15 minutes and going 0-3. Fast forward to March, and Tarris Reed has probably been the second-best player in the tournament, behind Yaxel Lendeborg of Michigan. He is averaging 21.8 points and 13.5 rebounds per game through the first four games, including a ridiculous 31-point 27-rebound game in the first round to save them from a frisky Furman team.

Reed plays a bit like Dain Dainja if he were three inches taller, and UConn has shifted their offense to feature him in March, as he is shooting 13.8 times per game, up from just 9.8 on the season. Reed is stronger and quicker than Tomislav Ivisic, but Tomi will need to hold his own and make things tough on Tarris for Illinois’ defense to have a chance. Reed might get his, but Tomi has the ability to make him pay on the other end if he can pull him away from the basket with a couple threes.

Alex Karaban, 6-foot-8 senior forward

Karaban is the connective tissue of UConn’s championship DNA, as the only key rotation player remaining from both of Dan Hurley’s previous championship runs. Defensively, he is deceptively strong in the post and can also use his length to bother shooters on the perimeter. Offensively, he does everything for UConn. He passes and shoots well, and gets used a ton as a screener, where he reads the action incredibly well, knowing when to slip to the basket, when to pop and when to go set another one.

He was having a fantastic farewell tournament, with 17 or more points in each of his first three games before having a 5-point stinker against Duke, but he still came up with a clutch three to bring UConn within one with less than a minute to go. David Mirkovic will get the assignment here. Communication and film study are the key here, as it is not raw talent and athleticism that makes Karaban a great player, but his reading of the defense. Mirkovic is essentially a younger, less polished version of that. I expect him to handle it much better after four more months of college ball since they first saw each other.

Silas Demary, 6-foot-4 junior guard

Demary is the Kylan Boswell figure for UConn. He is a sturdy guard and their best perimeter defender. He will be tasked as the primary defender on Keaton Wagler. He is a decent shooter but likes to play inside the three-point line, distributing more than he shoots, averaging 5.9 assists per game and just 7.2 shot attempts per game. In the postseason, he sat out their opening round game nursing a high ankle sprain, and has not been the same since, averaging just five points and three assists per game.

He did have his best game of the tournament against Duke though, and with another week to heal should be in better shape by Saturday. I expect Boswell to guard Demary, not because he is their biggest offensive threat, but because Kylan can disrupt the initial offense with some pressure and then get involved as a help defender after Demary passes it.

Braylon Mullins, 6-foot-6 freshman guard

Unlike in 2024, when UConn boasted five future NBA draft picks including two lottery picks, Mullins is the lone Husky player projected to be a (mid) first rounder (Karaban and possibly Reed are the other players with NBA potential on the roster). Get ready to hear over and over again from the broadcast about the kid from Greenville, Indiana getting to play in a Final Four in Indianapolis.

Like every player from Indiana, he is a lanky shooter. He thrives in the mid-range, able to use his size and a bit of fade on his jumper to shoot over most small forwards. He played just 10 uneventful minutes in the first game against Illinois, as it was his season debut recovering from injury. He had been having a pretty bad tournament, before his one shining moment with the logo three-pointer to beat Duke.

Expect Jake Davis to start on him, but Andrej Stojakovic will likely guard him the most, unless one of the other guards gets hot and needs some length thrown at them. He will be the target on defense for switches on Mirkovic for post ups or Stojakovic on isolations.

Solo Ball, 6-foot-4 junior guard

Going into the season, Ball was expected to be the scoring star of the team. His shot has been awry all season though, with his field goal percentage dipping from 44% to 39% and his three-point percentage plummeting from 41% to 29% from last year. That has not stopped him from getting them up though, with the highest shot rate on the team, and 62% of those shots being from three.

He is a player who should not be the primary concern of the Illini defense, but if you let him get going, he can be combustible.

In the first matchup, it looked like he was going to go off on Illinois, with 11 quick points in the first 8 minutes on 4-6 shooting before he went 2-8 the rest of the way and scored just four more points. In the tournament so far, he has been ice cold, shooting just 28% from the field and 14% from three. Wagler will likely get the Ball matchup unless he gets hot and needs Kylan or Andrej put on him.

Bench

Jayden Ross is a combo forward who they might need to try to stop Andrej in this one. Offensively, he is a spot up shooter and straight-line driver who largely defers unless the opportunity really presents itself.

Malachi Smith is a pass first point guard and physical point of attack defender who got hot and was the key to victory in the first matchup between these two teams.

Eric Reibe is a promising freshman backup center who had some strong games early in the season but has faded to the background with it becoming Tarris Reed’s team.

Jaylin Stewart had been a key bench player as a stronger back up power forward but missed a month with a knee injury before making a limited return last week, with just eight minutes combined against Michigan State and Duke.

How They Play

Offense

Unlike the past two games against ball screen dominant teams, UConn uses the most sophisticated off ball screening actions in college basketball. Every set has counters on counters. All of their starters are willing passers and screeners.

To get Reed involved, they will do a lot of cross screens to get him on the block against a switch, or fake cross screens, bringing Karaban up to the free throw line for high-low dump ins. Backside help will be critical to prevent him from getting over the top passes from the wing.

Last time, Illinois switched everything on the perimeter until Ball got hot, when they had Kylan permanently chase him, which seemed to work in slowing him down. Communication and variety on defense will be key here, as if you are too predictable sticking with the same coverages every time they will pick it apart. It is a good team to have a week to prepare for.

Defense

Assuming his ankle is up for it, Silas Demary will be the catalyst of the defense, getting into Keaton Wagler near halfcourt and trying to force mistakes with physicality. Wagler has seen that from each of the past three opponents and handled it pretty well with just five turnovers in that span.

Expect Illinois to continue to use David Mirkovic to bring the ball up the court to get the ball to Wagler in a more advantageous spot without having to fight Demary all the way up the court.

Behind Demary, they will switch a lot of screens 1-4 and play drop coverage with Tarris Reed, who is one of the best rim protectors in the country, averaging 2.1 blocks per game. Despite his talent for affecting shots in the paint, Illinois needs to not be afraid of attacking Reed. He has picked up four or five fouls in 15 of 33 games this year and will jump on the ball fakes Wagler and Stojakovic are adept at.

If Tomi can hurt his drop coverage with one or two threes, that will soften up the middle even more as he will be out of position to help on the rim because of Tomi’s gravity. On the perimeter, look for Illinois to hunt switches for Braylon Mullins mercilessly on any of Mirkovic, Stojakovic or Wagler, as he is the weakest link of their perimeter defense.

How Illinois Can Win

Rebound, Rebound, Rebound

No change from the Houston game here. Illinois is 27-3 when they have a better offensive rebounding rate than their opponent, they are 1-5 when they do not win that battle. Last time against UConn, even with Reed barely a factor they somehow lost the battle on the boards. Karaban is a tough matchup for Mirkovic defensively, making him run all over the place. Karaban is not a great rebounder though, and Mirkovic can even the matchup by killing him on the glass just like he did against Iowa.

Mistake-Free basketball

Last game against UConn, there were just way too many blown switches leading to easy buckets. UConn beat Duke because Duke made too many turnovers and blown box outs. If Illinois avoids live ball turnovers and communication breakdowns, it becomes a game of shot making and rebounding. Illinois has the clear advantage in both of those categories.

Tomislav Ivisic (and Zvonomir)

Tomi needs to put on his knee pads, elbow pads and flak jacket and be ready to go to war on Saturday. So far in the tournament he has been up for the challenge being a consistently positive contributor in every game, but Tarris Reed is another level. While they can bring some weakside lob support, in post ups Tomi needs to hold his own. That needs to start early by not giving him deep position. Reed can get his 20-25, but as long as it isn’t hyper-efficient Illinois can focus on shutting down the rest of the UConn offense. On the other end, if Tomi can hit just two threes it will open things up for the offense. There has been positive regression on that front recently, as he is 5 of his last 14 from three. He also shouldn’t be afraid to post him up a few times as well to keep him honest, as Tomi’s jump hook won’t get blocked and is one of the more efficient shots in basketball. Just another solid game from Tomi, or Big Z if Tomi is not getting it done, allows the rest of the team more room to operate on offense and less to worry about on defense.

Bottom Line

As obnoxious as Coach Boss Baby is, you have to respect the job he has done overall with UConn, and with this team this March. It is the Final Four, you can expect everyone you play to be great. Illinois is here for a reason as well though. There is a reason all the predictive metrics favor Illinois.

This is a really good team playing their best basketball, particularly defensively, at the right time. This UConn team is not nearly as talented as the one that ripped our hearts out two years ago, and this Illinois team is much more mature than the one that lost in Madison Square Garden just four months ago. If you still are not convinced with what Underwood and his staff have done, maybe when he does the college basketball world a favor and sends Psycho Dan home he will finally get the respect he deserves.

What do you think? Who is the X-Factor? Do you agree with me that Illinois should be the favorite for this one?

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