UFC Vegas 115’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Duncan vs. Moicano

UFC Vegas 115 is live this weekend (Sat., April. 4, 2026) at the famous (infamous?) META APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event will, of course, stream on Paramount+. The main event for UFC’s most recent trip to the warehouse is Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan in the Lightweight division. That’s interesting enough … as a featured “Prelim” perhaps or a main card opener.

The rest of this card is … yeeeeesh.

This might be the lowest name value card in UFC’s history. The co-main event is Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci. The rest of the main card fighters, combined, have 13 UFC fights to their name. And six of those belong to Brendson Ribeiro. If you’re watching this one (and you’re not getting paid to do it, like me), then I salute you. You are a hardcore fan.

The “Prelims” are also filled with guys and gals you’ve never heard of (other than Lando Vannata). He’s back and fighting someone called Darrius Flowers.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Vegas 115 Main Card Money Line Odds

Renato Moicano (+154) vs. Chris Duncan (-185)

Moicano has been out since June since losing a dominant decision to Beneil Dariush. That was his first fight since his short notice title shot against Islam Makhachev, which saw him D’arced in little more than four minutes (see it here). Those losses ruined a good run for “Money.” Indeed, he had won four straight, including a one-sided beating he put on Benoit Saint-Denis (see it here).

Duncan, meanwhile, is one his career-high run right now, having won his last four bouts. In that run, he choked out Terrance McKinney (in the first round, of course — see it here), took a bloody decision over Mateusz Rebecki and out-classed the hyped up Jordan Vucenic. During this run he’s shown off a devastating guillotine choke.

This is a mildly interesting fight and a good opportunity for Duncan to out himself as someone who is serious in this division. And I like him here, too.

He deserves a lot of respect for his guillotine. He can lock it on quickly and his squeeze is nasty. He’s not a one-trick pony, though. This isn’t Valter Walker and his heel hooks. Duncan can strike, too, as we saw in the Rebecki and Vucenic fights.

I was not expecting the level of sluggishness I saw from Moicano in the Dariush fight. He looked very slow and powerless to prevent Dariush’s takedowns. Dariush has been a great fighter for many years, but at this stage of his career, it was surprising to see him have such an easy time with Moicano.

It was like night and day, watching that performance and his big win over Saint-Denis. These inconsistencies have plagued Moicano’s career, so it’s hard to know what we’re going to see from him on Saturday night.

Given all that, I like Duncan’s steadiness and I think he’s going to be able to handle a brawl with Moicano on the feet and also have that gilly in his back pocket.

Best bet: Chris Duncan moneyline (-185)

Virna Jandiroba (-120) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+100)

This is Jandiroba’s first fight since her uninspiring loss to Mackenzie Dern in Oct. 2025 for UFC’s Strawweight title. She earned a shot at the vacant belt with wins over Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos and Lupita Godinez. She’s currently 8-4 in UFC.

Ricci obliterated Amanda Ribas’ orbital bone in July (see it here) to win via technical knockout. That saw her rebound from a loss to Yan. She’s 7-3 in UFC with wins over Angela Hill and Gillian Robertson.

Jandiroba’s MMA-BJJ game is deservedly feared. She’s one of the better BJJ players to come over to mixed martial arts (MMA) and find ways to get her submissions to stick. She’s facing a legit black belt in Ricci, though. Ricci is a student of famed coach Ricardo “Franjinha” Miller.

This could be one of those fights where two grapplers decide to avoid each other’s wheelhouses and have a low intensity kickboxing match instead … fun!

If we are staying on the feet, Ricci should find the most success. Jandiroba’s striking is just good enough to get by. Ricci has actually developed her striking to become more menacing (just ask Lemos).

Ricci is also considerably younger than Jandiroba, who is is going to be 39 next month, while Ricci is only 31. I think “Baby Shark” takes this one.

Best bet: Tabatha Ricci moneyline (+100)

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1800) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+1000)

Yakhyaev quickly submitted Raffael Cerqueira in Nov. 2025 (see it here). That moved the Chechen-born Turkish fighter to 8-0. He won his Contender Series fight with a 30-second technical knockout.

Ribeiro, on the other hand, has spent his UFC career being set up to fail. In his proper UFC debut, he was pounded out by Zhang Mingyang (see it here). Then, he lost to Magomed Gazhiyasulov by decision. He was then matched up against Caio Machado and Diyar Nurgozhay, two men UFC expected to beat him. He managed to win those fights, though. He took a split decision over Machado (in a terrible fight) and he scored a kimura on Nurgozhay (see it here). Last time out, he was TKO’d by Oumar Sy.

Ribeiro just doesn’t feel like a serious fighter — he has a bit of a goof aura around him. Johnny Walker has been able to parlay that into a career, but I don’t think Ribeiro has the same charisma nor striking power to do the same.

He should get torn apart by Yakhyaev … quickly. I don’t know if Yakhyaev is going to be a big deal or not, but he’s been given a lay-up here and he should be able to drain it (as possibly the biggest favorite in UFC betting history).

To get plus odds I’m just going to go with the fight ending by submission, since that’s Yakhyaev’s preferred weapon (and it’s what Ribeiro will go for out of desperation).

Best bet: Fight ends in submission (+115)

Ethyn Ewing (-142) vs. Rafael Estevam (+120)

Ewing had one of the better UFC debuts that I can remember in Nov. 2025. He came in on short notice against the undefeated, and heavily favored, Malcolm Wellmaker. But, he dominated that match-up and put in an argument for him being a super prospect (instead of Wellmaker). Ewing is now 9-2, with those two losses being the first ever fights of his professional career.

Estevam remained undefeated after a decision win over Felipe Bunes in Aug. 2025. The smothering grappler is now 14-0 as a professional. However, two of his three UFC wins have come after he missed weight. He was 130 pounds in the Bunes fight! The extra weight has helped him a lot, since it’s a great complement to his fighting style.

This is a pretty compelling fight. Estevam is boring, but very effective. We’ve seen these guys a lot in this sport and they look unbeatable until they find someone they can’t take down. In his last fight, Estevam got Bunes down five times. Before that, he got Jesus Aguilar down 11 times (on 19 attempts). Once he had Aguilar down, he only landed one significant ground strike, though.

Estevam’s takedowns are mostly blast doubles set up by a jab. He goes for those after backing the opponent up to the fence.

Based on how Ewing looked against Wellmaker, I think his movement is going to be good enough to keep him away from the fence to prevent those kinds of approaches. If he moves forward, though, he’s going to leave himself open for a reactive blast double.

Ewing is going to need to do enough damage early, on the feet, so that Estevam’s takedowns become less potent. I think he’s capable of that, so that why I’m picking him. This might be a bit of wishful thinking, on my part, though.

Best bet: Ethyn Ewing moneyline (-142)

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Tommy McMillen (-1450) vs. Manolo Zecchini (+850)

McMillen is one of the biggest favorites on the card. He’s coming off Contender Series where, in Sept. 2025, he took a majority decision over David Mgoyan. He’s undefeated (9-0) with most of his career coming in Fusion Fight League. He spent a decent chunk of his career in amateur MMA, where he went 6-0 and won two titles.

In the opposite corner, Zecchini hasn’t competed since 2023. In his last fight, he went down to Morgan Charriere’s body kicks (see it here). That was also his debut fight with UFC. Before that, he fought in Italy’s defunct Venator FC.

The disparate odds on this fight have a lot to do with how long Zecchini has been out. McMillen looks an interesting prospect, but I’m not thinking he’s a killer based on what I saw on Contender Series. He’s a lively and aggressive grappler, who loves a front choke, but his striking is raw and he was dropped in that fight by a spinning elbow. McMillen looked defeated on his stool after the first round, but he showed a lot of heart to storm back in the last two rounds and put it all on the line when his opponent tired.

I don’t think McMillen is going to do much in the promotion, but he should be able to get past Zecchini. In addition to being more fresh and active than Zecchini, he’ll also be a lot longer. McMillen has a massive 74-inch reach, six inches longer than Zecchini’s.

The odds are so heavily in favor of McMillen that it’s hard to find value on anything that connects to a McMillen win. I’ll go for the under, since I can see him getting one of his trademark chokes on a rusty Zecchini early.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-154)

Guilherme Pat (-108) vs. Thomas Petersen (-112)

The enormous Pat moved to 6-0 in Dec. 2025 with a decision over Allen Frye Jr.. Prior to that, he was in Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA).

Petersen is 2-3 in his last five with two of those losses being by stoppage. In Feb. 2025, he was starched by Shamil Gaziev (see it here). And in Oct. 2025, he was knocked out with a Vitor Petrino combination (see it here). Between those bouts, he took decisions over Don’Tale Mayes and Mohammad Usman.

Petersen struggles with big guys who hit hard and fast. Pat is very raw; however, despite all his size, he’s still very quick and athletic.

Petersen has takedowns, but Pat did a could job of staying up in his debut (where his opponent focused all his attention on trying to get a takedown on the fence).

I think Pat can survive Petersen’s wrestling and light him up whenever they are standing a few feet apart.

Best bet: Guilherme Pat moneyline (-108)

UFC Vegas 115 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Jose Delano (-375) vs. Robert Ruchala (+295)

Delano is one of the many Brazilian fighters who have spent a long time in LFA before impressing on Contender Series and then getting signed to UFC. Delano was a Featherweight champion in LFA. His only loss in seven bouts with that promotion was to Gabriel Santos (who took Lerone Murphy to a close split decision in 2023).

Ruchala is a former KSW champion who was dethroned by Salahdine Parnasse (perhaps the best fighter not in UFC). He debuted in UFC in Sept. 2025, losing a decision to William Gomis. Some of the better names on his resume include Damian Stasiak and Patryk Kaczmarczyk.

Delano seems pretty good. I don’t think he’s on the level of a Lerryan Douglas, though, as far as hot Brazilians coming off LFA. He does land punches in bunches, though. He landed 146 significant strikes in his Contender Series fight. It’s a little surprising he didn’t get the finish despite landing so often. His opponent there, Manuel Esposito, was stopped in his next fight and was also stopped back in Combate Global, too.

Ruchala is very experienced and has fought one of the higher levels of opposition you can find outside UFC. He’s also only 27, so he’s still in his prime. I think he might be an interesting pick for an upset here.

Ruchala will hope to use some wrestling in this fight. And we don’t know how Delano will handle that. I’m going to fade Delano here, since his ability as this level is really untested and he doesn’t have all finishes on the smaller shows (like Douglas and a few others like him have).

Best bet: Robert Ruchala moneyline (+295)

Alessandro Costa (-395) vs. Stewart Nicoll (+310)

Costa was upset by Alden Coria in his last fight, losing via technical knockout as a -370 favorite (see it here). Given how Coria has looked since, that’s not a terrible loss for the Brazilian. Before that, he TKO’d Kevin Borjas (see that here) and lost a decision to Steve Erceg.

Nicoll knows all about losing while being a big favorite. He was the -255 favorite for his UFC debut opposite Jesus Aguilar, in his home country of Australia. However, he lost by first round guillotine (see it here). He took a year off after that and then lost to Lucas Rocha in Oct. 2025.

Nicoll looked very out of his depth against Rocha. He conceded 115 significant strikes in that fight and offered just 45 in response. I think Costa is going to heavily out-land him on the feet. Costa is very busy with his leg kicks and that might be something to look for here. Nicoll was hurt to the body a few times by Rocha, too. So Costa, if he’s smart, might switch from leg to body with his kicks. He should be free to do that since Nicoll is not much of a wrestler.

I think Costa gets the win, but I’m not going with his moneyline. I’ll take the over, because I can see this going the distance or Costa getting a late stoppage (after lots of early work to the legs). Costa hasn’t had a first round finish since his time on the Brazilian regional circuit.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-110)

Lando Vannata (-238) vs. Darrius Flowers (+195)

Vannata returns to action here for the first time since April 2023. That last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Daniel Zellhuber. Before that, he was submitted by Charles Jourdain (see it here). His last win was a 2021 split decision over Mike Grundy. He’s still only 34 years old and his UFC record stands at 4-7-2. He’s got notable wins over Yancy Medeiros and John Makdessi (by wheel kick — remember this?).

Flowers, meanwhile, is still with the big show despite being 0-3 in the Octagon. His losses are to Evan Elder, Michael Johnson and Jake Matthews (not the easiest run for a debuting fighter). His overall record is now 12-8-1.

This fight is very hard to make sense of. I have no idea how Vannata is going to look after three years off. No one does, unless you’re in camp with him. Anyone saying they have a clear read on this fight (and all the others featuring fighters with long layoffs or little UFC exposure) probably has a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

Here’s what I do know: at his height, Vannata was a better fighter than Flowers was. At his height, Vannata was a better fighter than Flowers was now.

Thankfully, Vannata right now is 34 and not 44. And his opponent is 32 and not 22. And Flowers is not a world beater, either. This isn’t Vannata being fed to a guy who UFC expects to make waves.

Against Elder, Flowers did his best King Green impression, walking around with his hands down and his gums flapping. He wasn’t nearly as evasive or aggressive as Green, though. He doesn’t have the talent or technique to be successful with that style. Can he walk through Vannata’s offense and land something big, though? Maybe.

Does Vannata have the pop to make Flowers pay for his showboating? Maybe.

There’s a lot of unknowns here. I think Vannata is better technically, though, especially outside of striking (where he is also probably better), so I think he will be able to mitigate what Flowers does and put together a compelling case for the judges.

Best bet: Lando Vannata moneyline (-238)

Alice Pereira (-122) vs. Hailey Cowan (+102)

Pereira (no relation to Poatan) is still looking for her first UFC win. She lost her debut, by split decision, to the recently-released Montse Rendon in Sept. 2025. She was just 19 then. She’s a rare case of a young fighter being signed to the promotion without any appearances in UFC feeder programs.

She’s now 5-1 with a couple of legitimacy flags on her Tapology page.

Cowan has fought twice for UFC in the four years she’s been signed to the company. Those were both losses. In 2023, she lost a unanimous decision to Jamey-Lyn Horth (in a fight where she missed weight) and in 2025 she was submitted by Nora Cornolle.

She’s 34 years-old with a 7-4 record.

Pereira looked like one of the most raw fighters we’ve seen in the Octagon for quite some time. She just didn’t seem to have much of a feel for what she was supposed to do out there. Her main advantages over Cowan are her length (four inch reach advantage) and her youth (thirteen years younger). If Cowan had wins in UFC, I’d be tempted to say that’s not enough. But given what we’ve seen of Cowan so far (including a 33 percent defense on significant strikes), I think it might be enough.

Best bet: Alice Pereira moneyline (-122)

Azamat Bekoev (-625) vs. Tresean Gore (+455)

Bekoev looked like he was on the fast track to be somebody in UFC last year. The former LFA champ was signed in Jan. 2025 and he quickly dispatched of Zachary Reese (though Reese claims he lost due to illegal shots). After that Bekoev starched TUF winner Ryan Loder (see it here). Then, in October, he ran into Yousri Belgaroui. That didn’t go well for him (see it here). It’s hard to be mad at him for that, though, given what we just saw Belgaraoui do.

Gore is 31 years-old and 5-4 as a pro. He’s 2-4 in UFC, having lost his last two fights to Rodolfo Vieira and Marco Tulio (by KO — see it here). His two UFC wins are guillotine chokes over Josh Fremd and Antonio Trocoli. He missed weight, pretty badly, for the Vieira fight.

I think Bekoev is going to wreck Gore.

Gore has terrible striking defense stats. He absorbs 7.48 significant strikes per-minute and blocks only 40 percent of significant strikes sent his way. That all happens while he lands only 2.76 significant strikes himself, at a 42 percent accuracy clip.

Bekoev’s defensive stats are terrible, too, on paper. He has absorbed 7.66 significant strikes per-minute with a 31 percent defense. That’s all because of his last fight, though. In his first two UFC fights, he out-struck his opponents 23-13 and 21-13 on significant strikes. Then Belgaroui landed 102 significant strikes on him, in exchange for just 24 in return.

Gore is not Belgaroui. Bekoev’s numbers should reduce to the mean in this fight and that should mean he out-strikes Gore, easily. And he probably stops him, too. There’s no value in the moneyline, so I’ll take the under.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-166)

Dione Barbosa (-130) vs. Melissa Gatto (+110)

Barbosa has been active since joining UFC in 2023. After winning on Contender Series, the former Olympic judoka took a decision over Ernesta Kareckaite. She then lost a decision to Miranda Maverick. Next, she submitted Diane Belbita. In her last fight in Aug. 2025, she dropped a decision to Karine Silva.

Her fellow Brazilian Gatto has been far less active. She was signed with UFC in 2019, but didn’t debut until 2021. That’s when she broke Victoria Leonardo’s arm. After that, she upset Sjara Eubanks with a body kick knockout (see it here). Then she lost a decision to Tracy Cortez. A year on the sidelines followed that. In 2023, she lost a decision to Ariane Lipski da Silva and then sat out another year. Her last fight was in 2024, where she stopped Tamires Vidal with a kick to the boob.

Gatto is longer and younger than Barbosa (and she’s had some bigger moments in the cage). But, I hate to pick her off such a long layoff. Barbosa is an older prospect, but her judo skills translate well to women’s MMA. And she’s shown a lot of willingness to bite down on a mouthpiece and brawl. Gatto loves a brawl, too, but I think Barbosa being able to mix up striking with a head-and-arm-throw will get her the “W” here.

Best bet: Dione Barbosa moneyline (-130)

Dakota Hope (+125) vs. Kai Kamaka III (-155)

This fight has been thrown together at the last second to make up the numbers on UFC Vegas 115.

Hope takes this short notice opportunity over the Fury FC title shot he was due to get next month. He’s 10-1 as a professional (though he’s already 29 years old). There’s not any names on his record that pop out. His last win was a technical knockout over Mauricio Gomez in Fury FC in February.

This is Kamaka’s second shot at making it in UFC. He went 1-2-1 with the promotion between 2020 and 2021 with a win over Tony Kelley and losses to Jonathan Pearce and TJ Brown. After that, he had a successful stint in Bellator, going 6-1. He did pretty good in PFL, too. He beat Bubba Jenkins and Pedro Carvalho in the 2024 Featherweight season before losing, by split decision, to Brendan Loughnane in the playoffs. More recently, he’s been with the Tuff-N-Uff promotion, which included losing a split decision to Diego Brandao (yes, Brandao is still fighting it seems).

There were no odds available for this fight at time of writing. Kamaka is more experienced and well-rounded (Hope is a BangTao guy who seems very striking dependent). I’ll take him to get his second UFC win after a five-year absence.

Best bet: Kai Kamaka III moneyline (?)

UFC Vegas 115 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Robert Ruchala to win by decision (+600)

Ruchala is the only underdog I like on this card. He’s well-rounded and is very experienced. Delano had a good fight on Contender Series, but I’m not sold on his whole body of work. Ruchala has been in big fights with big names (in Europe) and I don’t think he’s getting brushed aside by a debuting Contender Series guy.

Ethyn Ewing to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+1600)

Ewing vs. Estevam is one of my favorite fights on the card. I think it’s going to be a close one and a very classic “Striker vs. Grappler” match-up. I think both men will have periods of success, but I loved Ewing’s movement and striking against Wellmaker. I think he can chip away at Estevam in the first two, while maybe spending more time on his back than he would prefer. If things are close in the third, I think Ewing can kick it into high gear and get the finish.

Three-bet parlay: Chris Duncan, Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev and Tommy McMillen to win by Submission (+3229)

There’s a lot of guys who like submissions on this card. Duncan is famous for his guillotine. Yakhyaev gets a lot of rear-naked chokes. And McMillen loves his D’arce. Maybe all those moves get pulled off on Saturday?

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 115: “Moicano vs. Duncan” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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