When the 2025-26 NHL season began the Pittsburgh Penguins were given, by most models, less than a 10 percent chance of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs. As they enter play on Monday, with game No. 79 on the schedule ahead, MoneyPuck has them at a 99.9 percent chance to make the playoffs with an 8.2 percent chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Final. Needless to say, there has been a lot that has changed for this team over the past few months.
Erik Karlsson looks like a Norris Trophy defenseman again.
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Anthony Mantha, Justin Brazeau and Parker Wotherspoon might have been three of the best value free agent signings in the entire NHL.
Ben Kindel and Egor Chinakhov look like potential long-term building blocks.
The core veterans are still outstanding.
The team has its flaws to be sure. They still give up too many goals, with both the defense and the goaltending sharing some responsibility in that. The forwards, however, are tremendous. This team is going to be the highest-scoring Penguins team of the Sidney Crosby era, and it is the second-highest scoring team in the NHL this season behind only the Colorado Avalanche. The forwards might be championship-worthy. They will at least be fun to watch and give them a chance.
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Thanks to an incredibly strong week, and thanks to a pair of absolutely huge wins against the New York Islanders and Detroit Red Wings to begin it, the Penguins have put themselves in a great position going into this week. Going into Monday I figured the Penguins needed to get at least six out of the 10 possible points available to them to keep on schedule for what they needed to do to clinch a playoff spot. They ended up getting eight of the possible 10 points, completely dominating the Islanders and Red Wings, then doing what was expected of them against an injury-filled Florida Panthers team. Those performances make it easy to overlook the tough game against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the middle of it all.
Their strong week, combined with the slides of the Islanders and Columbus Blue Jackets, has put the Penguins into a position now where literally one win — just one win — in any of their four remaining regular season games gets them in the playoffs. Given the schedules the Islanders and Blue Jackets play, they might not even need that. It just makes it easier.
The week begins with their first chance for that win on Thursday night at the New Jersey Devils (I will be in atttendance). The Devils have not yet been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they soon will be in what has been another disappointing season for them. While they are not going to the playoffs, they have still been playing some of their best hockey of the season as of late. In fact, since losing to the Penguins 4-1 at the end of January, the Devils are 12-5-1 in their most recent 18 games, with superstar forward Jack Hughes playing some truly incredible hockey. Since the start of February Hughes is the NHL’s second-leading scorer with 36 points in 20 games, while his 33 points in 17 games since the beginning of March are the most in the NHL (it is worth noting Erik Karlsson’s 28 points in 20 games since then are third in the NHL).
That is a winnable game based on the standings. It is going to be a lot more difficult based on the way the Devils have been playing lately. Especially considering how rare a Penguins win in New Jersey seems to be.
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The week continues over the weekend with another set of back-to-back games, this time against the Washington Capitals with Saturday’s game being in Pittsburgh and Sunday’s game being in Washington.
The Capitals looked like they were going to keep themselves in the playoff race, but kind of ruined that over the past week with some ugly losses to the Devils and New York Rangers. The intrigue in these games might be the questions about whether or not Saturday could be Evgeni Malkin’s final regular season home game in Pittsburgh, if it could be the final time we see Sidney Crosby play Alex Ovechkin in Pittsburgh, and if Sunday’s game could be the last game where all three of them are on the ice in the same game. Will Ovechkin retire after this season? Will Malkin re-sign with the Penguins or go elsewhere? My guess on all of that is it will not be it for any of those things, as I believe Ovechkin comes back for more year and Malkin eventually gets a new contract from the Penguins. But the questions and uncertainty at least make it all worth watching.
The other big intrigue this week is the Penguins goalie situation.
Arturs Silovs had to start both games this weekend due to Stuart Skinner dealing with what is being called an “upper-body injury” after apparently being hit in the face by a puck on Saturday. Silovs played better on Sunday, but is still not a level that is inspiring much confidence. The question is whether this leads to Sergei Murashov, who has been called up from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, gets any playing time and what he does with it. He is the future of the goalie position in Pittsburgh, and there is a growing argument that he should perhaps be part of the present as well.
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Overall, this is a week where you would like to see the Penguins get four points. They only need two points. Getting them gets the Penguins back in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Officially back in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
