Manchester City are closing on their first Women’s Super League (WSL) title since 2016 and are nine points clear of Chelsea in second place, with three games to go.
After an international break, the WSL doesn’t restart until April 25 but there are Champions League semifinals to consider as well. So when can former Denmark head coach Andrée Jeglertz’s side win the trophy? And who can still stop them?
Who can stop City?
If City win their next two games, they will win the title regardless of what any other team does.
Man United had been second before the 3-0 defeat to City knocked them into fourth place and out of the running of the title, as they can now only reach 47 points from their final three games.
Chelsea sit second but they would need to win all three of their remaining games and hope City lose all three of theirs to finish level with them on 49 points at the end of the season, while also overturning a goal difference of +22. And they’d also need Arsenal to drop points as well.
However, Arsenal could yet enter the title conversation as they will have three games in hand on City after the next round, due to their participation in the UWCL semifinals on April 26.
What are the remaining fixtures
Both teams have to play Brighton & Hove Albion and Liverpool, so those two clubs could play a major part in where the title ends up.
What do Arsenal need?
In short, they need City to drop as many points as possible.
If City lose to Brighton, then the Gunners could close the gap to eight points if they win against Leicester City. But if City win then they would go 14 points clear, with Arsenal having a total of 15 points left to win from their remaining five games.
City then host in-form Liverpool on May 3.
If they lose that as well, then a win for Arsenal over Brighton on May 6 (their second game in hand) would put them five points behind City. And they have a run of two more games before the final weekend (vs. Villa and Everton) where they could potentially go one point clear themselves.
If City draw their next two games and Arsenal win their next four, the Gunners would be one point behind City on May 6, going into the final weekend.
But City are currently ahead +14 on goal difference, so Arsenal need all the goals they can get to close the gap.
When is the earliest City could win it?
If City beat Brighton on April 25 and Arsenal lose to Leicester on April 29, City will have an insurmountable 12-point gap over them and the title will be theirs.
More likely, City will seal the title on May 3, when Arsenal’s games in hand will come too late.
What if teams finish with identical records?
The normal order of tiebreakers is:
1) Points
2) Goal differential
3) Goals scored
4) Head-to-head record
5) Head-to-head away goals
6) A playoff! The two teams would meet at a neutral venue to decide the championship.
