Odds on the NFL draft can be quite volatile, but the betting market is about as certain as it can be about who is going No. 1. Former Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who led the Hoosiers to their first national football championship in program history, is -20000 to be taken with the first pick.
The rest of the first 10 picks? That’s a little dicey. Ohio State Edge/LB Arvell Reese is the favorite to go No. 2 ahead of Texas Tech DE David Bailey, who has the shortest odds to go third after some back-and-forth with Reese. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love has now moved up all the way up to the favorite to go No. 4.
The order might not play out exactly as the odds say, but they still tell a story about what the betting public believes will take place Thursday. Also worth keeping in mind is that the New York Jets (2, 16), New York Giants (5, 10) Cleveland Browns (6, 24), Kansas City Chiefs (9, 29), Miami Dolphins (11, 30) and Dallas Cowboys (12, 20) all have multiple picks in the first round. Trades will happen.
Here’s what the betting market tells us about what could happen with the first 10 picks of the NFL draft.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
The Heisman Trophy winner is a massive -20000 (99.5% implied probability) favorite to be selected No. 1 in the NFL draft. At -20000, bettors would need to risk $2,000 to win $10. Cam Ward had the same odds to be the first pick last year, and Caleb Williams also had these odds the year before. Both went No. 1.
Odds have ping-ponged between Reese and Texas Tech DE David Bailey over the last few weeks leading up to the draft. Just over a week ago, Bailey was the odds-on favorite at -140 to go in this spot. That distinction now shifts back to Reese, who was favored to go No. 2 in early April and has regained that status at -260. The conversation basically ends there, as no other player has better than 60-1 odds to go in this spot.
Reese had these same odds to go as the No. 3 pick just over a week ago, but Bailey now falls to this spot. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love has the second-shortest odds to go here at +225, followed by the aforementioned Reese (+250). The next-best odds come in at 11-1 for Miami OT Francis Mauigoa (-230 to be the first offensive lineman taken).
This is where the Love conversation really heats up, although there is now some noise for the running back at No. 3. ESPN ranks Love as the consensus No. 2 prospect. The Notre Dame RB was +150 to go in this spot just over a week ago. Saquon Barkley was the last running back to go in the top five (second overall, 2018). Bailey (+400) has the second-shortest odds to go No. 4, followed by Ohio State LB Sonny Styles (+600), Reese (10-1) and Ohio State WR Carnell Tate (14-1).
This has been fairly consistent as the top landing spot for Styles, who was +175 to go here 10 days ago. Ohio State S Caleb Downs has the next-shortest odds (+400), followed by Mauigoa (+550). Love and Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson are tied at +600, and no other player has odds better than 14-1.
Tate is -200 to be the first wide receiver selected in the draft (although Tyson has closed the gap and is now +130) and is the top choice to go No. 6 overall, though his shortest odds to come off the board are at the No. 7 spot (+225). Utah OT Spencer Fano, the 2025 Outland Trophy winner, has seen his odds shorten from +900 to go sixth overall two weeks ago to +380. Styles is +450, followed by Mauigoa (+600), Tyson and Georgia OT Monroe Freeling (both +800).
Love occupied this spot 10 days ago at +200, but his stock continues to rise into the 3-4 range. That leaves Tate as the favorite yet again, this time with shorter odds to go seventh rather than sixth. Though likely to go earlier, Love has the second-shortest odds to land seventh overall at +400, followed by Styles at +450, Tyson at +600, LSU CB Mansoor Delane at +650 (-2000 to be the first cornerback taken, up from -380 two weeks ago), Miami DE Rueben Bain Jr. at +800 and Downs at +850.
There’s a trend here, with picks 6-8 finding wide receivers heavily in the mix. Tyson’s stock has been climbing, and he is now the favorite to go No. 8, a spot at which the Arizona State WR was +850 to land just two weeks ago. Tate is tied with Delane as the second choice to go eighth overall (+400), followed by Bain (+500). No one else has odds shorter than 14-1.
This has been a steady spot for Bain, whose odds have remained fairly stagnant. But it’s tightly packed behind him, with Delane and Tyson both +450 to go No. 9 and Fano +500. Mauigoa and Tate share the next-shortest odds at +900, followed by Downs (11-1) and Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq (12-1).
Two weeks ago, Caleb Downs was +300 to go No. 10 to the Cincinnati Bengals. Now, he is +290 to go to the Giants in this same spot after Cincinnati traded the rights to the 10th pick to New York in exchange for DT Dexter Lawrence II. The safety from Ohio State was last season’s Jim Thorpe Award winner for best defensive back in college and is a back-to-back first-team All-American. Tyson has the second-shortest odds to go 10th overall at +400, followed by Mauigoa (+600), Penn State OL Olaivavega Ioane (+650), Fano (+900) and Delane (10-1).
