UFC Vegas 116 preview and predictions: Aljamain Sterling or Youssef Zalal — who wins?

Featherweight contenders aim to advance toward a title shot this Saturday at UFC Vegas 116, when former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling collides with Youssef Zalal.

Meta Apex events admittedly stand out much more these days — and not for the better — yet their main events, more often than not, can be counted on to hold some value. That’s where Sterling vs. Zalal comes in — a fight between a former champ seeking one last chance at glory and a rising contender who had to leave the UFC entirely before finding his footing. On top of all that, they’ve trained together extensively, as recently as last year.

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The co-main event also carries subtle intrigue, more for the surprising fact that the UFC, for once, has chosen not to bury female contenders entirely. Norma Dumont returns, doing her best to hold on as bantamweight’s clear top contender who still can’t earn a title shot to save her life. She’ll look to extend her win streak while ending Joselyne Edwards’ own.

👑 UFC Vegas 116’s lineup Crown grade: D+ 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

145 pounds: Aljamain Sterling (+115) vs. Youssef Zalal (-140)

Zalal is on the most low-key roll of a lifetime right now, and he deserves much more respect for it than he’s received. The man is on an eight-fight UFC win streak with only a single decision in that run. Largely a submission artist, his striking has caught up significantly with his overall game, and quite frankly, it’s safe to call him a better fighter than Sterling at this juncture.

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Sterling, 36, does what he does and does it extremely well: That’s, for the most part, wrestling. “Funkmaster” has mastered the art of “backpacking” in a fighting sense, while controlling dominant positions anywhere a fight can go. He fights well at range to establish his moments for closing. But between those sequences, he opens himself to strikes from quicker opponents. Those moments are where Zalal can and will capitalize.

Against strong wrestlers, Zalal has performed. Josh Emmett, Zalal’s last fight, is the best example, but it only lasted less than two minutes. Zalal secured a wildly slick armbar before there was even a chance for him to be controlled. Real wrestling resistance has yet to meet Zalal on this run. His experience, specifically against Sterling in training, could theoretically make that a moot point. At the same time, Sterling will have his own familiarity.

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In a fight like this, experience can be so pivotal, and Sterling hasn’t shown any signs of going on a slide. This could be a vintage performance in either direction, but Sterling is the lean.

Pick: Sterling

135 pounds: Norma Dumont (-235) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+190)

Dumontmania is running wild, brothers and sisters! The more you dissect the Brazilian’s six-fight win streak, the more it puts her in the same box with featherweight contender Movsar Evloev: They’re decision machines. Despite that, their talents can’t be denied.

Edwards has been the opposite in her past four fights. The Panamanian has impressively split her knockouts and submissions — her competition level has just been far lower than that of Dumont’s. Edwards is a thrasher on the mat. Her ground-and-pound is a problem when on top, potentially leading to a stoppage or opening up submissions.

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The well-roundedness and high fight IQ of Dumont have put her above everyone else in the 135-pound contender line. Outside of the Irene Aldana fight, which she won by going strike-for-strike, Dumont fights by exploiting her opponents’ weaknesses and staying sharp defensively. Unless she gets caught in a bad position, expect more of the same.

Pick: Dumont

155 pounds: Rafa García (+110) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-135)

Rafa Garcia is ready to get over the hump. But that’s also never easy in the UFC lightweight division — and Alexander Hernandez has seemingly done that himself, after years of a slow build that followed early hype derailment.

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This matchup makes for easy entertainment under the Apex lights. Make of that what you will. These two come to bang — and it’ll play into Hernandez’s favor. His counter wrestling abilities will give Garcia struggles, and even if he gets behind, he’s managed to find ways to score the finish still late.

At this point, Hernandez is ready for another crack at the top 15. A win here should do the trick.

Pick: Hernandez

135 pounds: Davey Grant (-120) vs. Adrián Luna Martinetti (+100)

Davey Grant has his hands full once again. At age 40, Grant has to turn back the surging Ecuadorian Adrian Luna Martinetti in what looks like a clear gatekeeper welcome party.

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The Brit has long been as tough as they come at 135 pounds, and his longevity and durability at his age are to be commended. But throwing him in with a young, hungry dog like Martinetti, who has won 15 straight? Creativity doesn’t get much better than scoring a gogoplata in your career — that alone should earn your interest in Martinetti’s stock.

Martinetti is a quick starter, which bodes well for him in this fight despite the experience gap. That’s all there is to this one. Martinetti’s résumé is lacking, but he’s made up for it with performances you’d expect from a prospect of his caliber.

Pick: Martinetti

135 pounds: Montel Jackson (-190) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+155)

Avoid this fight at all costs if you’re a gambler.

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Sorry, Grant. I know what I just said in the section above, but Raoni Barcelos is bantamweight’s top ageless wonder, and he’s proven that with his surprising four-fight win streak. Montel Jackson had finally appeared to reach his potential — until running into former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in October and getting shut down.

Don’t get me wrong. Jackson had his moments in that fight, but it was a disappointing performance considering how far he’s come. Simply put, Barcelos has been the more consistently reliable fighter here, possessing surprising durability, but most importantly, superior grappling to his peers. He’s still got it.

Pick: Barcelos

265 pounds: Marcus Buchecha (-150) vs. Ryan Spann (+125)

In a million years, I never would have expected to see Marcus Buchecha and Ryan Spann fight. The heavyweight division never stops doing what it does best: be silly.

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Buchecha’s phenomenal jiu-jitsu skills have yet to translate from ONE Championship. Could they finally be shown off against Spann? Absolutely. Will they be? Flip a coin.

Unpredictability was a theme in our previous fight, but here, it’s a guarantee.

Spann has always been a heavy puncher, providing danger at every turn. His lack of consistency can be attributed to more of a mental battle for him, which he’s spoken about. Bolt or get bolted — even if he’s also been deceivingly savvy with his choke game. He shouldn’t at all be a submission threat in this matchup, but you know what? It’s heavyweight in the UFC. It’s going to be weird. Give me Spann via submission.

Pick: Spann

Preliminary Notes

Mayra Bueno Silva is in full-on desperation mode. Her attempt at becoming a UFC bantamweight champion feels like an eternity ago — not that the fight was ultra-memorable as is. But she’s lost four straight since. Silva did her best to get back on track by returning to flyweight last year, but still couldn’t get the job done. It’s a mystery what went wrong, but she’s fighting for her job on Saturday.

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Meanwhile, the UFC continues to turn a blind eye to Sedriques Dumas, who was arrested on five charges last year. Dumas allegedly entered his ex-girlfriend’s home without permission, threw her around a room and snatched necklaces from her neck. He is 3-4, with 1 no-contest, in the promotion.

Quick picks:

• Rodolfo Vieira (-275) def. Eric McConico (+220)

• Michelle Montague (-425) def. Mayra Bueno Silva (+310)

• Sedriques Dumas (+170) def. Jackson McVey (-210)

• Jafel Filho (-650) def. Cody Durden (+475)

• Francis Marshall (-600) def. Lucas Brennan (+425)

• Max Griffin (+125) def. Victor Valenzuela (-150)

• Talita Alencar (+200) def. Julia Polastri (-250)