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A series doesn’t truly begin until the home team drops one, right? After losing the first two at Paycom Center, the Phoenix Suns return home looking to get on the board against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 on Saturday.
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With Oklahoma City on the road and potentially shorthanded without Jalen Williams, this may not be a comfortable spot for the visitors.
My Thunder vs. Suns predictions lean toward Phoenix keeping things close and covering the spread as sizable home underdogs.
Here are my NBA picks for Game 3 on Saturday, April 25, from Mortgage Matchup Center.
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UPDATE: Added prediction for who will win.
Thunder vs Suns prediction
Who will win Thunder vs Suns Game 3?
Suns: I’ll take the Suns to win this one at home. Not simply to cover but to win outright. The Suns have adopted a scrappy, hard-nosed attitude with Dillon Brooks in the locker room, and Brooks will set the tone on defense.
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Fresh off his sizzling critique of the officials in Game 2, I expect Devin Booker to set the tone on the offensive end. The Thunder could take their foot off the gas here, and Jalen Williams’ absence will certainly be felt. Phoenix went 10-8 straight up as home dogs this season.
Playing with their backs against the wall, I’ll take Phoenix to get the dub.
Thunder vs Suns best bet: Suns +8.5 (-105)
The Oklahoma City Thunder have an NBA-best 66 wins, including the postseason. However, they are just 40-43-1 ATS. The Thunder are 20-20 ATS on the road and 19-18 as the road favorite. Conversely, the Phoenix Suns are 24-19 ATS at home and 12-6 as the home underdog. The Suns have covered in 23 of 39 games following a loss and in 35 of 56 games against Western Conference opponents.
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In seven matchups with the Thunder, the Suns covered the spread four times, including one of two games at home. The Suns hung tough with the Thunder through two quarters in Game 2, going into halftime with a 65-57 deficit. A monster third quarter from the Thunder propelled them to victory, and the game got chippy.
Following the game, Devin Booker ripped the officiating crew and called out referee James Williams by name, calling him “terrible” and questioning his integrity. Booker was fined $35,000 for his comments, but owner Matt Ishbia backed his star player and doubled down on his comments.
Dillon Brooks called Shai Gilgeous-Alexander “frail” and noted the lack of physicality in the current NBA. Both Booker and Brooks will surely be playing with chips on their shoulders, feeling slighted by the referees playing favorites and making unfair calls in favor of their opponents.
Booker’s comments triggered an investigation from the Association that found nothing to substantiate his claims, but the public call-out could lead to an overcorrection, and the refs may swallow their whistles.
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The Suns can’t afford to lose this game and fall into a 0-3 hole, so I expect them to scrap and claw with a Thunder team missing SGA’s No. 2, Jalen Williams. I’ll take Phoenix to cover, and I like their chances of winning this one outright.
Thunder vs Suns same-game parlay
The Thunder and Suns have hit the Over in five of seven head-to-head matchups this season, including one of two games in the first-round playoff series. The 214.5 total is set a bit low for two offenses that can effectively put up points, especially if Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks are playing with extra motivation.
Devin Booker has scored 20+ in 13 straight games, averaging 26.9 points along the way. In that span, he scored 23+ in eight games and finished with exactly 22 points in four more. Booker averaged exactly 22.5 points in four matchups with the Thunder, hitting the Over twice and finishing with 22 and 21 in the other contests.
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Thunder vs Suns SGP
Our “from downtown” SGP: Hotter than the sun
It’s now or never for the Suns. A loss would essentially end the series, as no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit. If Devin Booker, Jalen Green, and Dillon Brooks can all eclipse their point totals and limit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the other end, the Suns can take this one and gain some ground back in the series. It’s a long shot, but they’ve got a chance.
Jalen Green scored 20+ in three of his last four games overall, and he reached that mark in 18 of 32 regular-season matchups. He finished with 21 in Game 2.
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Dillon Brooks led the Suns in scoring in Game 2 with 30, and he’s scored 18+ in each of the first two games of the series. He scored at least that many points in 38 of 56 regular-season contests, including 25 of 27 at home.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged just 30.4 points per game across five matchups with Phoenix this season, going Under 31 points three times, including a 25-point performance in his only trip to the desert. I expect the refs to be more conservative with their calls, limiting free-throw opportunities and points.
Thunder vs Suns SGP
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Gilgeous-Alexander Under 30.5 points
Thunder vs Suns odds for Game 3
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Spread: Thunder -9 | Suns +9
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Moneyline: Thunder -325 | Suns +425
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Over/Under: Over 214.5 | Under 214.5
Thunder vs Suns betting trend to know
The Suns covered the spread in 12 of 18 games as the home underdog this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Suns.
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How to watch Thunder vs Suns Game 3
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Location |
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
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Date |
Saturday, April 25, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
3:30 p.m. ET |
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TV |
Peacock |
Thunder vs Suns latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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