All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Monday’s top batter prop bets
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+515)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.48 EV
Daulton Varsho | OVER 0.5 HR (+910)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.14 EV
Max Muncy | UNDER 0.5 H (+163)
Projection: 48% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.00 EV
Matt Wallner | OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI (-165)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.28 EV
Otto Lopez | OVER 0.5 RBI (+244)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.90 EV
Monday’s top pitcher prop bets
Chris Paddack | UNDER 3.5 ER (-111)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.09 EV
Steven Matz | UNDER 4.5 K (-139)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.19 EV
Dylan Cease | OVER 7.5 K (-108)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.27 EV
Parker Messick | UNDER 4.5 K (+106)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.06 EV
Ranger Suarez | UNDER 2.5 ER (-158)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.80 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
San Diego Padres Run Line:
The Padres have won this bet in eight straight home games.(+9.20 Units / 91% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -145
Chicago White Sox 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The White Sox have been under this total in five consecutive home games. (+5.30 Units / 85% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -145
Texas Rangers Game Total UNDER:
The Rangers have not seen their game total go over in 12 of their last 15 home contests. (12-2-1) (+9.90 Units / 60% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -108
Boston Red Sox Game Total OVER:
Boston’s game total has gone over in eight of their last 10 road games. (+5.90 Units / 53% ROI). Current odds: 7 @ -118
Los Angeles Dodgers 1st 5 innings (F5) Moneyline:
The Dodgers have lost this this bet just twice in their last 15 games. (+7.10 Units / 26% ROI). Current odds: -315
