All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Saturday’s top batter prop bets
Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 HR (+870)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.52 EV
Vinnie Pasquantino | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.93 EV
Miguel Vargas | OVER 0.5 RBI (+242)
Projection: 36% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.74 EV
Matt Chapman | OVER 0.5 RBI (+239)
Projection: 35% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.06 EV
Carlos Cortes | UNDER 0.5 H (+185)
Projection: 43% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.21 EV
Saturday’s top pitcher prop bets
Kyle Bradish | UNDER 2.5 ER (-104)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.05 EV
Kumar Rocker | UNDER 4.5 K (-169)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.22 EV
Roki Sasaki | UNDER 2.5 ER (-125)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.90 EV
Rhett Lowder | UNDER 4.5 K (-126)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.61 EV
Nolan McLean | UNDER 7.5 K (-150)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.25 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline:
The Cardinals have won this bet in five straight games. (+7.05 Units / 141% ROI). Current odds: +119
Chicago White Sox Team Total OVER:
The White Sox’s team total has gone over in eight straight away games. (+8.30 Units / 87% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +114
Cincinnati Reds Game Total OVER:
Seven straight Reds games have gone over the total. (+7.00 Units / 91% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -112
