Cardinals vs Padres Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

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The St. Louis Cardinals head to Southern California for a four-game series with the San Diego Padres beginning Thursday night.

The opener features Matthew Liberatore and Michael King on the bump, and will be televised on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET.

My Cardinals vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, May 7 are taking a shot on the underdog Redbirds to win outright.

Who will win Cardinals vs Padres tonight: Cardinals moneyline (+150)

The San Diego Padres are a tad overvalued in this spot due to starting pitcher Michael King’s 2.95 ERA.

He’s achieved that with a bit of smoke and mirrors. His botERA of 5.21 is a red flag, as is his career-low Stuff+ (93) — down from 101 a year ago.

The St. Louis Cardinals rake against right-handed pitching (109 wRC+). San Diego is less potent against LHP (88 wRC+) and will face southpaw Matthew Liberatore (4.39 botERA, 99 Stuff+).

I’ll take the value with the Cardinals, winners in seven of their last nine contests and one of the hottest teams in The Show.

Covers

COVERS INTEL:

King has pitched around loud contact (20th percentile barrel rate) thus far, but that’ll be difficult to manage against a St. Louis ballclub with the second-highest barrel rate (11.1%).

Cardinals vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8 (+102)

This is a high total for a night game at Petco Park, which has the second-lowest Park Factor (97).

San Diego’s poor results against LHP (.661) inspire bearishness on the offense, whereas King has been effective enough on the mound to demand a certain level of respect.

Mason Miller leads a Padres bullpen with a stellar 3.18 SIERA (second in MLB). The Cardinals will have all of their top relief arms available and are well-rested thanks to Tuesday’s rainout, and closer Riley O’Brien (1.43 FIP) has thrown just three pitches in the last four days.

JD Yonke’s 2026 Transparency Record

ML/RL bets: 10-9, -0.99 units
Over/Under bets: 13-7, +5.62 units

Cardinals vs Padres odds

Moneyline: Cardinals +150 | Padres -178
Run line: Cardinals +1.5 | Padres -1.5
Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Cardinals vs Padres trend

The Cardinals have won five of Liberatore’s seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Padres.

How to watch Cardinals vs Padres and game info

Location	Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date	Thursday, May 7, 2026
First pitch	10:10 p.m. ET
TV	ESPN
Cardinals starting pitcher	Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 4.50 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher	Michael King (3-2, 2.95 ERA)

Cardinals vs Padres latest injuries

Cardinals vs Padres weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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