If you’ve followed my college football futures coverage, you already know I love digging through award races, playoff paths, national title contenders and where perception doesn’t always match reality.
I’ll be bringing that same approach to the NFL throughout the offseason and regular season.
From the Super Bowl to MVP, Coach of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year and more, this column will track the storylines, movement and betting angles worth paying attention to as the season takes shape.
Not every market will generate a wager, but every market will be on the radar. Here’s an early look for now.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
It’s simply too expensive, but it makes sense for him to be the favorite. Arizona took him at No. 3 overall, hoping for a boost with a player that is explosive and will certainly get touches in order to build an offense around the run game after moving on from Kyler Murray. But we’re still talking about a team that has won four games or less in three of its last four seasons.
The defense was bottom-tier basically everywhere. They’ll likely be playing from behind a lot again, and now you’ll be asking a rookie running back with an unsettled quarterback situation behind a weak offensive line to carry both production and narrative for this award? That’s a lot.
For +300 to cash, you’d be paying for everything to go right immediately. That’s not how I like betting futures. Futures can be really good, and still not win this award. Rookie running back props and futures on bad teams are dangerous, because volume sounds great until you realize the team is trailing by 17 in the third quarter. The talent is real, and the durability could even be real. The number to win this award isn’t.
The market believes two things: he’s starting from Day 1 and the Raiders finally have a coherent offensive vision. After a 3-14 season where Vegas ranked near the bottom in EPA per play, pass protection, rushing efficiency and overall offensive grading, the organization clearly shifted toward stability. Mendoza fits that direction.
The Raiders already have the pieces in place to help a rookie QB. TE Brock Bowers is a legit offensive centerpiece and RB Ashton Jeanty gives the offense a physical run-game identity. Plus, Vegas invested in improving pass protection.
Still, +380 is short for a rookie entering a rebuilding roster. The Raiders still have major concerns defensively and along the offensive line overall, even after offseason additions. This can be a volume award, but Mendoza would need both stat production plus a noticeable team improvement to justify the price. I’d prefer him as the favorite over Love. The path is there.
The biggest variable, however, is now Kirk Cousins. If Cousins starts even the first few games, Mendoza immediately loses volume and statistical runway in an award that heavily favors full-season production. On the other hand, if Mendoza eventually takes over and plays exceptionally well, sitting behind Cousins early could improve both his long term development and the narrative. There’s lots of ways this can play out.
Coach of the year
Klint Kubiak, Las Vegas Raiders, +2000
There’s nine coaches ahead of the Raiders’ Kubiak. I gravitate to this more than Mendoza at +380, because you’re getting paid on the entire organizational turnaround instead of only rookie production. There are paths where Mendoza plays well, another rookie wins OROY, but Kubiak still gets COY buzz because the Raiders outperform expectations massively.
The Raiders moving from three wins to six probably won’t do it. Moving from three wins to at least eight can put Kubiak in the conversation, especially if the offense jumps from bottom-three to middle of the pack while Mendoza looks composed early on — and the Raiders become that frisky team that could steal a wildcard headline late in the season.
It’s still way too early, but there’s at least a believable path postdraft to be interested in the +2000 price tag.
Betting consideration: Nothing yet …
This is information-gathering season. The 2026 regular season schedule hasn’t even been released yet and strength of opponents, travel spots, rest disadvantages, primetime exposure and late-season stretches can all influence both team success and award narratives.
For now, let’s see how these offenses actually function once camp and preseason begin. Training camp battles, early injuries, depth chart movement and roster cuts will all help paint a clearer picture of which teams are positioned to outperform expectations versus which teams are winning offseason narrative headlines.
Edges in futures comes from gathering as much info as possible before committing too early. Once the full landscape shows and more off-season reads become available over the summer, that’s when we can begin to identify where narrative and data align.
