All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Friday’s top batter prop bets
Andy Pages | OVER 0.5 HR (+840)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.39 EV
Julio Rodriguez | OVER 0.5 RBI (+197)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.26 EV
Corbin Carroll | OVER 0.5 RBI (+208)
Projection: 38% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.18 EV
Max Muncy | UNDER 0.5 H (+107)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.74 EV
MJ Melendez | UNDER 0.5 H (+140)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.05 EV
Friday’s top pitcher prop bets
Nolan McLean | UNDER 5.5 K (+102)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $35.26 EV
Nick Lodolo | OVER 1.5 ER (-139)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.11 EV
Reid Detmers | OVER 5.5 K (-102)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.12 EV
Jesus Luzardo | UNDER 1.5 ER (+104)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.69 EV
Foster Griffin | OVER 4.5 K (-116)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.86 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline:
The cardinals have won five consecutive road games. (+6.95 Units / 139% ROI). Current odds: +129
Cincinnati Reds Game Total OVER:
This bet has hit the over in six consecutive games at Great American Ball Park. (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 9.5 @ -102
Atlanta Braves Run Line:
The Braves have won this bet in 16 of their last 20 games. (+12.95 Units / 53% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -153
New York Mets Team Total UNDER:
The Mets have been under their team total in 16 of their last 20 games. (+11.95 Units / 51% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -125
