Going into the 2026 MLB season, the Los Angeles Dodgers were an overwhelming pick to win their third straight World Series title. But nearly a quarter of the way through the season, the rest of the league has shown it is not going to roll over and let L.A. cruise to a third straight crown.
We asked six of our MLB experts to take down the Dodgers in October — and our panel opted for a mix of teams off to hot starts and preseason contenders we haven’t given up on just yet. While our experts don’t necessarily think their team can outpace L.A. for 162 games, they made the case for their club having what it takes to knock the Dodgers out when it matters most — and surprisingly, nobody on our panel took the San Diego Padres, who have kept pace with the Dodgers in the NL West.
How strong were their cases? We left that for our resident judge — the honorable Jeff Passan — to decide with a verdict for each contender.
The Phillies have the worst run differential in baseball right now and a 15-20 record. But, they have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball — third in WAR, second in xERA, third in xFIP this season, despite the 25th-best ERA — with the FanGraphs rest-of-season projection the best of any pitching staff, even ahead of the Dodgers. That screams positive regression/better luck is coming soon.
With a rotation of Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola along with a bullpen headlined by Jhoan Duran, the pieces are there to stay in any postseason game, if not steal one, or toss a shutout on any given night.
The poor pitching luck should resolve itself, and this franchise, largely with these players, has made the playoffs four years in a row. Can the lineup be good enough to make the playoffs?
Phillies hitters have underperformed for sure (and been a bit unlucky), but there’s enough for a league-average offense, which is plenty to complement an elite pitching staff. There’s plenty of time to make up the four games the Phils are back from a wild-card spot then catch fire and wreak havoc. — Kiley McDaniel
Judge Jeff says: Counselor, your positivity is appreciated, but your avoidance of evidence that seems to neuter your point stands out. Mainly: Is a league-average offense possible? The Phillies are 27th in MLB in runs scored. They’re barely getting on base 30% of the time and have a bottom-10 slugging percentage, too. Beyond Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh, they don’t have a hitter with an above-average wOBA.
Trea Turner should be better, as should J.T. Realmuto, but between a questionable offense and a defense that ranks among the worst in baseball, the Phillies have plenty of areas to improve to even make the postseason.
If they get there, Mr. McDaniel is correct: The pitching can carry them for a whole series. Whether they can overcome their deficiencies to get there is the real question.
Verdict: Case dismissed for evasiveness.
Provided the Mariners straighten out after an uneven start, the playoff version of their roster presents the kind of full package that could compete with the Dodgers in an eventual World Series matchup.
We’ll assume more or less full health here, which would probably be the case if Seattle is playing that deep into October. Likewise, we’ll assume some slow starters, such as Luis Castillo, Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor, are rolling by then.
If so, you have to love the core 10 pitchers the Mariners could turn to in a seven-game series. That starts with a rotation four of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Castillo and Bryan Woo. Then you have a strong back-of-the-bullpen unit with Andres Munoz set up by the nasty righty duo of Eduard Bazardo and Matt Brash, and two tough lefties in (hopefully, shoulder injury pending) Gabe Speier and Jose A. Ferrer.
But the wild card here is Emerson Hancock, who has taken off with one of baseball’s best K-BB% during the opening weeks. Maybe he’s too good to leave out of the playoff rotation, or maybe Seattle could use him as a multi-inning, medium-to-high-leverage role that would make this postseason staff airtight.
On offense, you have the star power of Julio Rodriguez and Raleigh, joined by perennial postseason standouts Naylor and Randy Arozarena. You’d like to see Seattle add another impact hitter, but given the potential strength of the pitching staff, the Mariners might not need to score much to win. — Bradford Doolittle
Judge Jeff says: All of that — and the argument didn’t even include the potential ascent of Kade Anderson, the third overall pick in last summer’s draft who through five Double-A starts has an 0.37 ERA and a 38-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24⅓ innings. The Mariners have been a bottom 10 offense in runs scored even though their team wRC+ ranks in the top 10. The run-scoring should pick up. And their defense leaves something to be desired as well. But the pitching is real. They don’t walk guys. Their average fastball is the fastest in the AL. There is plenty to like. And it’s why this case belies the Mariners’ record and makes sense.
Verdict: A well-stated argument that reinforces why the Mariners remain one of the AL’s few true threats to Los Angeles.
This is admittedly a long shot. After all, the Pirates will have to battle just to make the playoffs in the suddenly demanding NL Central. But keep in mind that the best time to knock off the Dodgers will be the division series. That’s when they lost in 2019, 2022 and 2023 — despite winning 106, 111 and 100 games those seasons. And if the Pirates play the Dodgers in the NLDS, Paul Skenes will likely start two of the five games — and that gives Pittsburgh a chance.
The Pirates’ pitching staff is more than just Skenes, though. Mitch Keller and Braxton Ashcraft have pitched just as well as Skenes thus far, and Bubba Chandler, although struggling to find the strike zone on a consistent basis, has the stuff to be a big-time force.
In October, you also need power arms out of the bullpen, and the Pirates have those in Dennis Santana, Gregory Soto and Mason Montgomery. With Soto, Montgomery and Evan Sisk, they have the lefty depth needed against Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. Pittsburgh’s bullpen ranks sixth in batting average allowed, sixth in strikeout rate and seventh in OPS. That’s a pen you can win with in October.
The offense? Excellent so far as offseason additions Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn, plus a hot start from Oneil Cruz, have greatly improved the power output. Rookie phenom Konnor Griffin is also starting to figure things out, and Bryan Reynolds has a .400 on-base percentage. The Pirates have offensive holes at catcher and DH, but the DH position will be easy to upgrade via trade if Marcell Ozuna doesn’t turn it around. This looks like a sneaky-good offense, especially if Griffin continues to improve. — David Schoenfield
Judge Jeff says: I respect the gumption, counselor. The Pirates haven’t made the playoffs in a decade, and here you are giving reasons they can beat the Dodgers.
The Skenes point is reasonable, but it’s worth noting that unless the Pirates win the NL Central, his starts in a division series would likely be in Game 2 and a potential Game 5, which puts them in a reasonable position to win the series but makes it that much tougher to get there. The sneaky offense is real, as the Pirates are top 10 in runs and on-base percentage, and their defense is fine.
Like the previous two teams, Pittsburgh’s argument hinges on its pitching — and to beat the Dodgers, everything must be locked in.
Verdict: Solid case, but need to see it last for longer than five weeks.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong to McAfee: ‘It’s fun playing good baseball at Wrigley’
Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong joins Pat McAfee and discusses his team’s success.
The Cubs’ offense can hang with the Dodgers’ bats, especially the further you go down the lineup. That becomes even more true when you include players coming off the bench. Chicago has hitters who can beat you 1 through 9 in its lineup — and its pinch hitters are also OPS’ing over 1.000 for the season. That depth has created waves of offense and dream platoon matchups for manager Craig Counsell.
The two teams are already neck and neck in many offensive categories, but the Cubs are also better equipped to survive injuries around the diamond. If Chicago loses its best player — who is that anyway? — there won’t be a huge drop-off. If the Dodgers lose Ohtani, Katie bar the door.
On the mound, the Cubs can’t necessarily keep up with the top of the Dodgers’ rotation, but the current version of Shota Imanaga combined with Matthew Boyd — provided he can come back from his meniscus injury, remember we’re talking about beating L.A. in October here — and Edward Cabrera gives Chicago a pretty formidable postseason threesome. And, if you have to go four deep, righty Colin Rea is every bit as effective as more well-known Dodgers back-end starters Roki Sasaki or Emmet Sheehan. Go ahead, Judge Jeff, compare his numbers the past two years to theirs.
And finally, the two bullpens are fairly evenly matched, but with Edwin Diaz out, the Cubs have the best reliever of either team in closer Daniel Palencia.
One way to beat the champs is with depth. The Cubs have it. — Jesse Rogers
Judge Jeff says: I see. Counselor’s feeling himself a little here. OK, Mr. Rogers. I will gladly compare Colin Rea to the Dodgers’ actual No. 4 starter: Tyler Glasnow. And, yeah, that’s not great for the Cubs! Diaz will be back well in advance of October, and even if he isn’t, the Dodgers’ pitching depth is far, far greater than Chicago’s. The best case here, I think, would’ve been made using the Cubs’ best-in-baseball defense and the potential for them to out-fundamental Los Angeles, whose gloves are just all right.
Verdict: The Cubs are very real, but their rotation arms are a classic example of bringing a knife to a bazooka fight and, unless Chicago grabs a frontline starter at the deadline, it’s an uphill battle.
The Yankees are clearly the best team in the American League — and maybe in the majors with a 26-12 record and plus-81 run differential. Their offense ranks second in the big leagues in runs scored, third in OPS and fourth in wRC+. Aaron Judge is mashing baseballs again, leading the majors with 15 home runs, but he hasn’t even been the team’s best hitter. That title belongs to Ben Rice. The third-year first baseman is tops in the majors in OPS, tops in wRC+, second in batting average and ninth in average exit velocity.
On the mound, New York’s pitching staff owns the lowest ERA and FIP in baseball. Cam Schlittler leads the AL with a 1.52 ERA, Max Fried’s 2.39 mark ranks fifth, and Ryan Weathers and Will Warren are both under 3.50, too. And there are rotation reinforcements arriving over the next month.
Carlos Rodón is slated to make his season debut Sunday against the Milwaukee Brewers. His return will likely push Elmer Rodríguez back to Triple-A after two starts. Soon thereafter, Gerrit Cole is expected to come off the injured list. He will likely replace Weathers in the rotation, moving the left-hander to boost the bullpen. It’s a surplus most teams dream about. — Jorge Castillo
Judge Jeff says: Tough to argue with any of it. The Yankees are one of the few teams that can match Los Angeles’ pitching. Cody Bellinger is really hitting, too, to give the Yankees something beyond Judge and Rice. And don’t forget about Carlos Lagrange potentially joining the bullpen. The Yankees are very real and look like the biggest potential threat from the AL.
It was just three years ago that the Braves’ offense hummed like few others, OPS’ing .845, homering 307 times and averaging a whopping 5.9 runs per game. Most of those players are still there — except they also have Drake Baldwin, who has already made it clear he’s one of the game’s best hitters.
And although you can say Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and Ozzie Albies are older, and Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley aren’t who they were then, the reality is the Braves finished April leading the majors in runs per game — even with Murphy out, Riley struggling and their left fielders giving them almost nothing.
They also ranked second in ERA, even without Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver. Strider has since returned, Schwellenbach should be back at some point this summer, and Smith-Shawver might be available down the stretch. The Braves also expect to have Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop this month, will be able to give Baldwin more DH days with Murphy activated off the IL, and could have Acuna back from his hamstring injury as early as next week.
In short: They’re talented, they’re deep — especially in the bullpen, which I didn’t even get into — and they might only be getting better. — Alden Gonzalez
Judge Jeff says: Perhaps the easiest case to state, but one nonetheless argued with finesse. If there’s a quibble, it’s the lack of a Chris Sale mention. Whether it’s Yamamoto or Ohtani in Game 1, Sale is truly worthwhile opposition.
The fact that the Braves are doing this far short of full strength gives them similar boosts to those Blake Snell’s and Diaz’s returns will provide for L.A. And you’re right, counselor: Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez and Dylan Lee have a combined 52-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 43 innings of 0.49 ERA ball.
Verdict: I am guilty of thinking this is the winner.
