Eddie Alvarez thinks Justin Gaethje is capable of upsetting Ilia Topuria to become undisputed UFC lightweight champion, but he must be disciplined.
Former UFC and Bellator 155-pound titleholder Alvarez knows Gaethje (27-5 MMA, 10-5 UFC) well. He handed “The Highlight” his first MMA loss at UFC 218 in December 2017, and now his former foe looks to accomplish the same feat against an unbeaten force in Topuria (17-0 MMA, 9-0 UFC) at UFC Freedom 250 on June 13 in Washington (Paramount+).
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Gaethje has an uphill climb if he wants to unify belts, though, because he’s currently a significant betting underdog. Many fans and pundits are giving him no chance, but Alvarez said Gaethje has the tools to even the playing field.
“Everyone’s writing him off, but I don’t know, man – this could go either way,” Alvarez told MMA Junkie. “I saw a clip recently of Ilia’s brother explaining to Ilia how to beat Justin, his tactics of what he would do against a guy like Justin, and it was scary of how spot-on he was. I was like, sh*t man. During my camp, I was trying to formulate a camp for a guy like Justin and how he steps in the pocket and forces you to fight. How do we beat a guy like this? … Justin loses his eyes a little bit, and I don’t like that. In the exchanges you’ll see him look and throw this way. He can’t lose his eyes during this match, because what Ilia does, is Ilia keeps such a beautiful posture that his posture is so beautiful that he’s always ready to strike, and he doesn’t lose his eyes ever.
“Justin does this hard cover, and he can’t do that. He cannot hard cover. He has to punch with Ilia. When Ilia goes to exchange, Justin has to go in. He has to take that risk. That’s a risk that both guys are going to have to take to win and score a knockout here. Justin can’t hard cover or decide he’s going to out-move Ilia and keep angles. It’s just not going to happen. They’re both going to have to throw-on-throw. When Ilia goes, Justin is going to have to go with him in order to score a knockout. And Ilia the same. We’re going to see who gets it.”
Alvarez thinks it’s crucial for Gaethje to invest in attacking Topuria’s lead leg with kicks in the opening minutes of the fight. If he can do that, it will force a change in stance and take away the power behind the boxing combinations of the champion.
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It’s not an easy task, Alvarez said, but Gaethje putting himself in harm’s way – which has been a trait in his career – but in a measured way, is the only manner in which he can get it done.
“I think Justin should go back to calf kicks,” Alvarez said. “Ilia is front-foot heavy because he likes to box. If Justin goes back to those damaging, smashing leg kicks, he can really turn this fight into something else that people won’t realize.
“He has to go back to that hole. I’d love to see him do that in order to turn this into a real fight. The way people are saying, you can’t count out Justin.”
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: UFC White House: Justin Gaethje foe reveals key to Ilia Topuria upset
