Once college basketball rosters are finalized, a fairly vivid picture will be painted for the upcoming season. There will be whispers and buzz (as there was with Illinois’ Keaton Wagler in the 2025-26 preseason, but once the main characters are settled, there are rarely seismic changes that drop or boost a club’s stock in a drastic manner.
With that in mind, even in mid-May – and certainly by June – we can put together some fairly accurate preseason projections. The key caveat: preseason polls rarely look anything more than vaguely like the final results.
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Still, although a top-five preseason ranking doesn’t guarantee anything, it can electrify a fan base – and is certainly a solid indication that a team should be a contender once the season tips off.
And for Illinois, which hasn’t been ranked inside the top five of the AP preseason poll in more than two decades, it would be a welcome sight to get that nod in 2026-27. It’s definitely the Illini’s best chance in years.
But whether that vision comes to fruition hinges almost entirely on one choice: Andrej Stojakovic’s NBA-or-stay decision.
Where will Illinois rank in the 2026-27 preseason poll if Andrej Stojakovic stays?
Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) shoots against Connecticut Huskies guard Silas Demary Jr. (2) in the second half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
If Stojakovic elects to stick around in Champaign – which remains the general expectation – then the Illini have all the makings of yet another Final Four club, not to mention a legitimate title contender.
Illinois would have the dream combination of talent, experience (both in college hoops and Brad Underwood’s system), fit and tremendous size.
There are other squads with different ingredients but an equally (or more) potent final product. Duke, which likely has the deepest backcourt that college hoops has seen this decade, will presumably slot ahead of Illinois. As will Florida, after the Gators unexpectedly returned standout forward Thomas Haugh.
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Michigan’s initial ranking is dependent on the NBA decisions of big men Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara. All signs point to both staying in the NBA Draft. And even without their return, the Wolverines, who stocked up on bigs via the portal, will be a no-brainer top-10 team.
Meanwhile, Tennessee (which welcomes a star-studded transfer class) and UConn (which welcomes back marksman Braylon Mullins) are also in the mix. But expect the Illini to sit just ahead of both.
Illinois on SI AP preseason poll projection with Stojakovic: Between No. 3 and No. 5
Where will Illinois rank in the 2026-27 preseason poll if Andrej Stojakovic goes to the NBA?
Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) shoots the ball against the Penn Quakers in the first half of a first round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
Now, without Stojakovic, the Illini’s outlook wouldn’t be nearly as optimistic. Stojakovic’s downhill ability creates immense value for Illinois in the most obvious way: he scores points. But the pressure he puts on defenses – and the way it serves as the yin to every other player’s shooting yang – can’t be overstated.
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Jake Davis, a 40-percent three-point shooter, gets wide-open triples because Stojakovic forces defenses to collapse. On the flip side, Stojakovic is so potent going downhill because of Illinois’ shooters. Without Stojakovic, who is going to take advantage of those driving lanes?
There isn’t a player on the Illini roster in Stojakovic’s rim-attacking stratosphere. And what about the defense? Kylan Boswell is gone. That leaves Stojakovic – who Underwood dubbed Illinois’ “1B” defensive stopper a year ago – to step into the lockdown defender role.
So if Stojakovic decides to take those talents to the league, the Illini are an entirely different club on both ends. Without Stojakovic, Illinois would be forced to rely more on incoming freshmen – namely Quentin Coleman and Lucas Morillo – to be Day 1 producers, though David Mirkovic, Stefan Vaaks and Tomislav Ivisic would still likely carry the heaviest offensive load.
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In the end, the Illini would still enjoy high expectations – just slightly more earth-bound. They would drop down preseason projections, but the Final Four potential would remain. Would there be an NCAA title ceiling, though? Likely not – but, again, the final weekend of the tournament would be in the realm of possibilities.
Illinois on SI AP preseason poll projection without Stojakovic: Between No. 10 and No. 15
This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/illinois as Projecting Illinois’ Preseason Ranking With – and Without – Andrej Stojakovic.
