We’re now past that most important waypoint on the NFL’s annual calendar – when we learn how many times and various ways the league can showcase the Dallas Cowboys, the famous/infamous “America’s Team” seemingly half of the country embraces and the other half loathes … because there’s no such thing as middle ground in ‘Merica ’26. But I digress.
And the NFL did not disappoint Cowboys-philes on May 14, revealing that Dallas is earmarked for six prime-time games this season – which doesn’t even include their yearly Thanksgiving showcase and a high-profile late-afternoon Week 3 game in Rio de Janeiro against the Baltimore Ravens.
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But let’s put the Cowboys’ national (over?)-exposure aside for a minute. A closer examination of their schedule might just suggest that the country’s most high-profile sports brand – Dallas won five of the first 30 Super Bowls and played on Super Sunday three other times but hasn’t reached the league’s ultimate showcase in the past 30 years – might finally be ready for a breakthrough.
Disagree? Let’s do a, ahem, shallow dive into the Cowboys’ 2026 schedule and see how many wins we can find for Jerry Jones and Co.:
John Harbaugh’s first game with a rebooted organization, WR Malik Nabers likely to play limited snaps – best case – and QB Jaxson Dart brazenly leaving the pocket on every third down while facing an entirely reimagined Doomsday D?
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▶ Win (1-0)
The 2026 home opener at JerryWorld, when QB Dak Prescott torches that Dan Quinn-designed defense he knows so well. Meanwhile, on the other sideline, new Commanders WR Brandon Aiyuk suffers the first of many meltdowns, reminding Washingtonians why the Niners gladly disposed of him in the first place.
▶ Win (2-0)
Week 3: Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens (Rio de Janeiro), Sept. 27
As many sick days as Ravens QB Lamar Jackson uses during the practice week, imagine what a 5,000-mile flight will do to the two-time MVP? OK, on a more serious note, Jackson and his offense might still have the chills in their third week trying to employ new coordinator Declan Doyle’s offense. Meanwhile, Prescott and the offense will be in their third year working with Brian Schottenheimer. Christ the Redeemer deems the Cowboys the victors.
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▶ Win (3-0)
Admittedly, the tongue is frequently firmly planted in the cheek here. Doesn’t mean we’re not taking this exercise (semi)seriously. And the long trip back from Brazil followed by a short intra-Texas flight to face the league’s best defense from 2025 seems like a good formula for a maiden L.
▶ Loss (3-1)
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield may be a native Texan. But playing on the road on a Thursday night is suboptimal in nearly every circumstance, particularly with the added pressure of performing in front of your Lone Star friends. Advantage: Dak.
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▶ Win (4-1)
After “beating” Micah Parsons’ Packers 40-40 last season, the Cowboys leverage their mini bye to notch a legit W against their former teammate, whose ACL will likely still be well shy of 100%, and exorcise some demons from their Lambeau Field house of horrors.
▶ Win (5-1)
Tempting as it is to project an extended Dallas hot streak, we’re guessing Jalen Hurts will still be a few months shy of making his last stand even as the A.J. Brown-less offense begins to collapse around him. But it’s early enough for Jalen Carter and Co. to spit out another win against Big D.
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▶ Loss (5-2)
LOL.
▶ Win (6-2)
And Daniel Jones drops to 1-8 against Dallas.
▶ Win (7-2)
The Niners, who have owned the Cowboys in recent years, will be coming off consecutive bye weeks, one of them against the Raiders.
▶ Loss (7-3)
No way the Cowboys also lose to Houston’s other team.
▶ Win (8-3)
Week 12: Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Nov. 26
Could Thanksgiving be Hurts’ last stand? Will the Iggles have already desperately turned to former Dallas QB2 Andy Dalton? Projected drama aside, a projected split with Philly seems fair − especially to cap a three-week homestand in North Texas.
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▶ Win (9-3)
This will be the Cowboys’ only game in a 23-day span. The Seahawks will be fresh off a tough roadie against the always physical Niners.
▶ Win (10-3)
Accounting for their Week 14 bye, this will be the Cowboys’ second game in a 24-day span – and also a home contest in front of their adoring California contingent, Oxnard and otherwise, forcing reigning MVP Matthew Stafford (or rookie Ty Simpson?) into using a silent count at SoFi Stadium.
▶ Win (11-3)
Ryan Flournoy (19) and Jake Ferguson (87) celebrate after Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys scored a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium on Nov. 23, 2025
First, the Jags’ roster took a haircut in the offseason. Now their golden-maned quarterback has apparently, stunningly gotten one, too. Getting buzzed by the Cowboys seems inevitable at this point.
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▶ Win (12-3)
Week 17: Cowboys vs. New York Giants, Jan. 3
The Jameis Winston-led G-Men stand no chance in the regular season’s penultimate weekend, when the Cowboys will lock up the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Believe it!
▶ Win (13-3)
Week 18: Cowboys at Washington Commanders, Jan. 9/10
C’mon, we’re realists here − no way Dallas wins 14 games … when it can rest its starters.
▶ Loss (13-4)
So that was fun.
Are 13 Ws a pie-in-the-sky scenario? They’re almost certainly a best-case scenario amid a light-hearted blitz through the Cowboys’ docket with the glass just about brimming over. But, truly, it’s not hard to be upbeat about a talented team that legitimately seems to have a fairly favorable pathway back to the playoffs … if the overhauled defense is even merely average for rookie coordinator Christian Parker … and Prescott avoids what’s become a biennial tradition with him, namely a serious injury … and WR George Pickens doesn’t come unglued while playing on the franchise tag.
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Are the Cowboys ready to end their three-decade Super Bowl absence? Jones most certainly is … but we’ll have to get back to you on that front.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Cowboys schedule predictions: Dallas wins 13 games, grabs NFC’s top seed
