The Red Sox have a problem.
No, not the worst home start in 94 years.
No, not the lack of a right-handed power bat. We’re all watching you hit those homers Mr. Polar Bear.
No, not missing their two biggest names: Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony.
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Well, all of those are problems too. But there’s also ABS. Note, this post is about two weeks old. But the message is the same.
The Red Sox are bad at challenges. Now, this isn’t the time to dig into this. That will be after the season when we have all the data. For the moment we can simply wonder what Alex Cora was doing all spring with these guys and take a peak here and there at how ABS is befuddling the team.
Right now the Red Sox have won 18 challenges as hitters and 19 challenges as (mostly) catchers. That works out to overturning 18 of 48 (38%) of challenges as hitters and 19 of 37 (51%) challenges brought by catchers and pitchers.
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In raw numbers, Caleb Durbin and Willson Contreras each have 3 successful challenges out of 7 and 8 opportunities, respectively. Roman Anthony is still in a tie for 2 correct challenges (of 3) with Trevor Story (2), Wilyer Abreu (4), and Ceddanne Rafaela (9).
Carlos Narvaez and Connor Wong are each 1 for 1.
Masataka and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are each 1 for 2.
The the rest have challenged incorrectly each time: Jarren Duran (1), Marcelo Mayer (1), Nick Sogard (2), Mickey Gasper (2), Andruw Monasterio (3).
To be fair, some of these are still good challenges.
Monasterio is right to think this may have been a ball.
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Is the 6th inning with one on, no outs, the time to challenge is debatable. But if the Sox weren’t in the basement it wouldn’t be frustrating to see a ball clip the edge of the zone and be confirmed a strike.
The catchers have done better. Connor Wong is right 75% of the time at 6 for 8. Mickey Gasper is 2 for 3. And Carlos Narvaez 10 for 23.
Pitchers have made a combined 3 challenges. Ryan Watson got his overturned and won while Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray each lost.
All of which makes some sense.
Which is why Chad Tracy is introducing ABS practice, starting, presumably, yesterday.
Will it help? It can’t hurt. I don’t know what the plan was with Alex Cora. Other teams challenge far more. And many of those succeed at a high rate to boot.
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Tracy has said he wants more challenges. He wants more aggressive base running. He’s the manager, he can shift the tone.
But it made me wonder: Red Sox hitters are correct 38% of the time, but what about Worcester? What about those guys Tracy was working with on challenges? As it turns out, the Worcester Red Sox are 36 for 71 (51%) in hitter challenges. Mickey Gasper was 6 for 6 down there, Nick Sogard 4 for 7. Kristian Campbell is 4 for 8. Tsung-Che Cheng has challenged 11 times and was right 5 times.
By total number of challenges, Worcester is 7th. By overturn percentage, their hitters are 8th.
Their fielders are more middle of the pack with the 12th most challenges but are 6th in overturn percentage at 66%.
Tracy know what he’s missing. He knows it’s something clearly emphasized in AAA and not the MLB level. Let’s see if ABS Boot Camp makes a difference for the remaining two-thirds of the season.
