The NBA Finals is here and for the next one to two weeks, we’re going to party like it’s 1999, which was the last time the Knicks made the Finals. Make sure to follow on X for more picks @VmoneySports. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings. Best of luck!
Knicks vs Spurs (-4.5): O/U 217.5
Game 1’s are usually for the underdogs in the first three rounds of the playoffs, but in the NBA Finals, the favorites have gone 10-2 on the ML and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 Game 1’s. Yet, I am going to ride with a well-rested New York Knicks squad.
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The Knicks did have the luxury of playing two teams, the Cavaliers and 76ers after they had seven-game series. New York was able to wear them both down and sweep after winning the final three games of the first round series against Atlanta (4-2).
San Antonio on the other hand played five, six, and seven game series versus Portland, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City. The Spurs have played 18 games this postseason to the Knicks 14, which can come in handy for the underdogs.
New York is the hotter team with 11-straight wins and are rested with nine days off. However, most people would agree San Antonio is the better team and has the best player in the series, Victor Wembanyama. The Knicks have a lot working for them ranging from the regular season success guarding Wembanyama to the rest advantage to the age gap between the two teams. Everyone will play the Spurs after they knocked off presumably the best or second-best team in the NBA (Thunder).
I will ride with the Knicks for Game 1 at +160 on the ML. Over the last 11 seasons, teams that win outright in the NBA Finals also cover 95.4% of the time (62-3-3 ATS), so if you like the Knicks, might as well take the ML for +160 rather than the +4.5 at -110 odds.
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Pick: Knicks ML (1 unit)
De’Aaron Fox O/U 9.5 Rebounds and Assists
Versus Oklahoma City, De’Aaron Fox averaged 6.2 assists and 5.2 rebounds for 11.4 total rebounds and assists per game. For his rebound and assist chances, Fox averaged 11.4 potential assists and 10.0 rebound chances per game.
Fox started hot going 4-0 to the Over on his rebounds and assists prop, but he went way Under in Game 7 at Oklahoma City with five assists and no rebounds. The Knicks were No. 1 versus point guards when it came rebounds per game in the regular season and second in assists.
Fox recorded 11, 8, and 9 rebounds and assists in three meetings versus the Knicks this season. I like Fox to go Under 10 combined rebounds and assists in Game 1.
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Pick: De’Aaron Fox Under 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (1 unit)
Josh Hart O/U 1.5 Made Three-Pointers
Versus Cleveland, Josh Hart was left wide open from distance as part of the Cavaliers game plan. There is no telling if San Antonio will play it the same way, but I’d expect the Spurs to have a different idea. Outside of Hart’s 5-for-11 three-point night in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Hart went 4-of-15 (26.%) in the other three games.
In the playoffs, Hart is 10-4 to the Under on a 1.5 three-point prop and went Under in all three Game 1’s. He is 3-2 to the Over in the last five games, but the Spurs are top 10 against forwards when it comes to made three-pointers and held the Thunder to 16-of-73 (21.9%) from three in the last two games in San Antonio. I will go Under on Hart from deep for plus-money
(+127 odds).
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Pick: Josh Hart Under 1.5 Made Three Pointers (1 unit)
NBA Finals Futures Best Bet
Series O/U 5.5 Games Played: Over 5.5 (-170)
Since 2019, five of the seven NBA Finals series have gone six or more games and 15 of the last 26 Finals dating back to 2000. I think the Spurs vs Knicks could be another six or seven game series.
New York won the NBA Cup over San Antonio this season and won two out of three meetings. The two have a familiarity with another and both are riding sky high when it comes to confidence. For San Antonio, they are knocking on the door of greatness and potentially the beginning of a dynasty built throughout the draft, whereas New York has been gearing up for this moment via trades and free agency.
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The matchups for this series could be a chess match. OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns found success against Victor Wembanyama in the regular season, then there’s Stephon Castle guarding Jalen Brunson after giving Shai Gilgeous-Alexander problems in the Western Conference Finals. Get your popcorn out because this series could go the distance. I like Over 5.5 Games Played at -170 odds.
Pick: Knicks vs Spurs Over 5.5 Games Played (Risk 2 units)
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