UFC Vegas 118’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Belal vs. Bonfim

UFC Vegas 118 is live this weekend (Sat., June 6, 2026) inside META APEX and streaming on Paramount+. This is the second trip to the APEX in three weeks and we’ve got a recent former champ headlining!

That’s rare for the warehouse.

Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim is our main event this weekend. It was little more than one year ago when Muhammad lost his UFC Welterweight title to Jack Della Maddalena. Now, he’s just hoping to stay relevant at 170 pounds.

The co-main event is Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan, with Allen looking to hold his ranking and Shahbazyan looking to break in as a potential contender. The main card is rounded out with Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan, Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna, Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa and Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa.

The featured “Prelim” is Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa. I don’t know why, though. There’s a better Flyweight fight further down the card with Bruno Silva vs. Edgar Chairez. The undercard also has Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis. McGhee’s last fight was a co-main event against current champ Petr Yan.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Vegas 118 Main Card Money Line Odds

Belal Muhammad (-122) vs. Gabriel Bonfim (+102)

Muhammad won UFC’s Welterweight title in July 2024 with his drubbing of Leon Edwards. He lost the title 10 months later in a close fight with Jack Della Maddalena. A few months after that, he dropped a decision to Ian Machado Garry. It’s amazing to think that just thirteen months ago Muhammad was the champion in this division. Now he’s fighting in the warehouse, for the first time since 2022.

Bonfim headlined the APEX in Nov. 2025 and TKO’d Randy Brown (see it here). Before that, he took a split decision over Stephen Thompson. And before that, he got a brutal brabo choke on Khaos Williams (see that here). That all has made him 19-1 overall and 6-1 in UFC. His lone UFC loss was a technical knockout to Nicolas Dalby (relive that here), when Bonfim was the huge -650 favorite.

I’ve gone back-and-forth on this fight, but I ultimately believe that Muhammad is too good at what he does to get knocked off by a rising talent like Bonfim. And that’s in spite of Muhammad closing in on 40. We’ve seen a few guys with his skillset show they can still compete at this level, especially when fighting outside the Top 5 (Kamaru Usman, Aljamain Sterling). I don’t think Muhammad’s motor has started falling off yet, so I think he’s going to be able to get hold of Bonfim and bully him against the fence and on the ground.

Bonfim is very dangerous at range, but Muhammad is very hard to stop. The only stoppage of his career was a TKO to Vicente Luque in his third ever UFC fight. Since then he’s been in with the best and gone the distance (including Luque a second time).

Bonfim’s leg kicks are part of the reason(s) he’s so dangerous from range. He battered Brown with those and that’s what opened up his opportunities to attack the head.

If Bonfim throws leg kicks in this fight, he has to worry about being taken down. So I think he’s either going get put on his back as a result of those kicks or he’s not going to throw them. That’s going to stop him breaking/slowing Muhammad down. And that, I think, means he’s going to have to live with Muhammad right up in his kitchen.

Bonfim does have good takedown defense, but Muhammad doesn’t need to land a takedown and put you on your back to be effective. His kind of grappling success doesn’t show up in the stats book. He’s great at getting guys down to one knee and making them fight for their lives to get back to standing (while tapping them with punches).

That’s exhausting.

Bonfim has also never fought for five rounds before. If Muhammad implements his game plan for for two or three rounds, I think there’s a chance Bonfim will have nothing to offer in the fourth and fifth.

Muhammad is not a finisher, so I like him to get the decision here. For my best bet, I’ll take the moneyline, since those are good odds on a fighter of his level.

The over is tempting, too, though. The round total is 3.5 and the over is -188. The under is +145.

The point spread has Muhammad at -5.5 at +150. I don’t like taking minus points on a fighter unless I strongly believe they can get a finish, though. Bonfim +5.5 is -205. That’s a great bet if you like Bonfim. Even though I like Muhammad, I can see a situation where Bonfim has a good first two rounds before slowing down.

Best bet: Belal Muhammad moneyline (-122)

Brendan Allen (-218) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (+180)

Allen’s reward for devastating Reiner de Ridder and dominating Marvin Vettori is a bout with someone outside the Top 15? He’s seeded No. 4 at Middleweight right now, but he’ll lose that if he’s beaten by Shahbazyan. Despite only being 30, Allen is an 18-fight UFC veteran (with 14 wins). Those two most recent wins, which included making de Ridder quit on the stool (see it here), are the best of his career.

The last time Shahbazyan was on a nice winning streak he got brought down to earth by Derek Brunson. That third round technical knockout was followed by three losses in his next four bouts. He was TKO’d twice on that run (by Anthony Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov — not much shame in that). He’s gotten back into the win column with victories over Dylan Budka, Andre Petroski and Andre Munoz.

I think history might repeat itself here, with Shahbazyan falling short when trying to take out a very established top tier Middleweight talent. These kind of match-ups usually happen when the established guy is on the way down, but Allen has looked better than ever in his last two fights. A big part of that is how aggressive he’s been. He’s looked a lot like Fluffy Hernandez in these fights, someone Allen has lost to twice (but has never been beat up by). If Allen brings that level of intensity and activity to this fight, I don’t think Shahbazyan will be able to keep up.

Shahbazyan has power, but Allen has a great chin. He’s only lost twice by strikes. One was to a prime Chris Curtis and the other was to Sean Strickland. Shahbazyan’s grappling is only so-so, so that’s an area that Allen could probably exploit, too.

Best bet: Brendan Allen moneyline (-218)

Fares Ziam (-325) vs. Tom Nolan (+260)

Ziam has looked like a contender over the last few years. He’s currently on a six-fight win streak and is now 8-2 in UFC. In his last fight, he got a technical knockout over fellow sniper Nazim Sadykhov. Before that, he dominated Mike Davis and blew away Matt Frevola with a knee (see it here).

Nolan is on a four-fight win streak. He’s looked a little more vulnerable during that run, though, getting knocked down in two of those wins. In his last fight, he dominated and submitted Charlie Campbell in the first round (see it here).

I think Ziam is going to get another big win here. Nolan plays really fast and loose with his defense and, so far, he’s been able to laugh it off. In one post fight interview he said he thinks he needs to get hurt in order to wake up and start fighting. If Ziam hurts him, I don’t think Nolan is going to have much of a chance to fight back.

Nolan is a very lanky Lightweight at 6’3” and with 73 inches of reach. This will be his first UFC fight against someone close to his own size. Ziam is just two inches shorter and he actually has a longer reach.

On paper, there’s a lot in favor for Ziam, too. Ziam’s sig. striking accuracy, strikes absorbed per minute and sig. striking defense are a lot better than Nolan’s. The striking defense numbers really jump out. Ziam’s is 65 percent and Nolan’s is 48 percent.

Nolan is going to want to brawl, but I think he’s going to miss and then go down off a strike he doesn’t see coming.

Best bet: Fares Ziam by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)

Bryce Mitchell (-148) vs. Santiago Luna (+124)

Mitchell made his Bantamweight debut last July and took a decision over Said Nurmagomedov. He’s done some pro grappling since then, which included fighting to a draw with old foe Jean Silva at Hype FC in Brazil. He was supposed to fight Victor Henry on Saturday, but Henry had to pull out.

“Borderboy” Luna is 8-0 and 2-0 in UFC. In his debut he got a first round TKO over Quang Le (see it here), which made the Noche UFC crowd go wild. He followed that up with a decision win over Angel Pacheco in February.

This is a pretty interesting match-up.

I’m sure Luna hasn’t seen anything close to Mitchell’s level on the ground. And if this fight is spent just grappling, I think Mitchell should have a pretty easy time getting to his back and forcing a submission.

Luna’s athleticism and explosiveness adds a wrinkle to this thinking, though. He is incredibly strong for his weight (you should watch some of the suplexes he’s pulled off in his career). Despite Mitchell coming down in weight recently, Luna will be the bigger and stronger guy. Luna also has the four inch reach advantage.

I think Luna is going to be taking Mitchell down in this one. From that point we could see Luna go wild with ground and pound and secure the biggest win of his career. Or we might see Mitchell’s experience and veteran savvy lead to sweeps or potential submissions off his back.

I’m going to go with Luna here, since… well, I don’t want to bet on Mitchell.

Best bet: Santiago Luna moneyline (+124)

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Matt Schnell (+525) vs. Alessandro Costa (-700)

Schnell retired when he lost to Cody Durden in Sept. 2024, via a ninja choke. He returned a year later, though, and took a decision over Jimmy Flick. In November he was submitted by Joseph Morales.

Costa beat Stewart Nicoll in April with a sick liver punch. That saw him rebound from his surprising technical knockout loss to Alden Coria. Costa was the -370 favorite in that fight and Coria was coming in on short notice. History might be kind to Costa, though, given how Coria has looked since.

Spoiler alert, but I’m not picking Schnell to win anything at this stage of his career, much less against one of the better lesser knowns in the division.

Costa is much younger and faster than Schnell and he hits for a heck of a lot more power. I think Costa is probably going to get the finish here. I’ll take the under, even if it is set low at 1.5 rounds.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-160)

Iwo Baraniewski (-360) vs. Junior Tafa (+285)

Baraniewski might be the most fun fighter we have in the Octagon today. He won his Contender Series fight in Sept. 2025 with a 20 second technical knockout. Then, in December, he and Ibo Aslan threw down in an all-time slobber knocker that ended in 90 seconds with Aslan getting face-planted (see it here). In March, Baraniewski was fed Austen Lane, who he took out in just 28 seconds (see it here).

Tafa got his first win as a Light Heavyweight in Perth last month, when he landed a scary KO on Kevin Christian (see it here). Before that he was submitted by Billy Elekana and Tuco Tokkos. He’s 3-5 in UFC.

I want Baraniewski’s run to continue, so I’m hoping for another furious 90 seconds of thrills and spills. It doesn’t seem like Baraniewski knows any other way to fight.

Tafa’s counter-punching is going to need to be on point. He’s going to have Baraniewski charging down his position and he’s going to need to land something hard on the button or else he’s getting wrecked.

Tafa has looked a little overwhelmed at times in fights. He’s quite moody in there. And when he’s trailing his body language looks terrible. I’m not sure he’s going to handle the pressure Baraniewski brings him and I think the legend of Iwo is going to grow some more after this one.

Best bet: Iwo Baraniewski moneyline (-360)

UFC Vegas 118 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Marcus McGhee (-500) vs. John Yannis (+380)

McGhee’s last fight was against Petr Yan as the co-main event at UFC Abu Dhabi last July. He lost that fight via a pretty lopsided unanimous decision. That big opportunity came after he went 4-0 to start his UFC career. After that loss, though, he’s landed back in the warehouse and on the “Prelims”, too!

Yannis has fought twice in UFC. He came in on ultra short notice for his debut, against Austin Bashi last August. He was steamrolled by the hot prospect there, losing by submission in the first round (see it here). He won in his last fight, though. In Winnipeg he bludgeoned Jamie Siraj for a first round TKO (see it here).

Yannis looked miles better in his second fight, compared to his first. It might be one of the biggest leaps in performance I’ve seen in recent years. That might be because his debut was on short notice and might have come with some jitters. Against Siraj, which was in hostile territory, he looked very confident and his striking was super clean.

If he’s taken another jump forwards, then I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a much closer fight than the odds suggest.

It’s hard to deny that McGhee is the best fighter Yannis has ever faced, by light years, though. And McGhee, himself, might experience a bump in performance now he’s been in there with a champ. But if he’s looking beyond Yannis, he might get surprised. That being said, I don’t think we’ve seen anything in him that would suggest that kind of lack of focus.

With McGhee being such a huge favorite, the under is also the favorite. I think this is going to be three competitive rounds of fighting, though.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+105)

Bruno Silva (-135) vs. Edgar Chairez (+114)

This has Fight of the Night written all over it.

Silva is coming off a split decision loss to Charles Johnson. Before that he submitted Hyun Sung Park (see it here). And before that he was TKO’d by current champ Joshua Van.

Chairez lost a decision to Van back in Sphere in 2024. Since then he’s fought and won twice. He earned a Performance of the Night for a first round submission on CJ Vergara. And, in February, he took a split decision over Felipe Bunes.

This is a really close one. Silva is the better grappler, but I have a feeling we’re going to see a brawl here. Silva likes to throw down, even when that might not be the best idea for him. And Chairez has literally never attempted a takedown in his UFC career.

Both these guys absorb more strikes than they land, on average. It’s because they both kind of embody that “take one to land one” spirit. That’s a big reason why neither of them has been able to sustain much of a run in UFC, where so many opponents will make you pay for that approach.

I like Chairez in this scenario. He’s got a six inch reach advantage and he’s also six years younger (that comes with a decent speed advantage, too).

Best bet: Edgar Chairez moneyline (+114)

Chelsea Chandler (-125) vs. Priscilla Cachoeira (+105)

Chander is 2-3 in UFC and 6-4 overall. The 35 year-old was torched by Joselyne Edwards in her last fight, losing by first round technical knockout. That was all the way back in April 2025. Before that, she lost to Yana Santos, in a fight she missed weight for. She also missed weight in her fight prior to that, which she won by decision.

Cachoeira was stopped by Edwards last year, too (see it here). She’s 1-5 in her last five and 5-8 in UFC. Last time out, in February, she dropped a decision to Klaudia Sygula.

Wow, this might be the lowest level fight we’ve seen in UFC this year.

Cachoeira likely leads UFC in significant strikes absorbed per minute with 7.6. And we’re far enough away from that epic Valentina Shevchenko beatdown to claim that bout is skewing the numbers. Sygula was able to land 151 shots on her!

Chandler is bigger and longer than Cachoeira (and she’ll probably miss weight). Cachoeira is probably the more technical striker (despite being pretty awful). I’m taking the Brazilian here because, for all her missteps, I think she’s pretty serious about competing and winning fights.

I also think Chandler’s long layoff is a big red flag.

Best bet: Priscilla Cachoeira moneyline (+105)

Jordan Leavitt (+160) vs. Joanderson Brito (-192)

Leavitt looked great in his Featherweight debut in February. As the +330 underdog he dominated the formerly hot prospect Yadier del Valle. Leavitt’s size advantage played a big role in that one. He’s now 6-3 in UFC and 3-2 in his last five, with losses to Paddy Pimblett and Chase Hooper.

Brito got a decision over short notice opponent Isaac Thomson in December. That snapped his two fight winning streak (to Pat Sabatini and William Gomis) and now has him 6-3 in UFC, too.

Leavitt won’t get to be a size bully in this fight. He and Brito have pretty similar measurables. Brito might be more thickly muscled, though. I like Brito in this match-up, since he should be able to match Leavitt in the grappling department, while also being the more potent striker.

Leavitt’s striking defense is good (1.59 sig. strikes absorbed per minute), but he doesn’t do much offensively on his feet to control a fight. I think he’s going to struggle to put his mark on this fight and will end up having to stand longer than he wants to.

Best bet: Joanderson Brito moneyline (-192)

Jeisla Chaves (-395) vs. Yuneisy Duben (+310)

Chaves graduated from Contender Series in September with a bloody split decision win. She’s now just 6-0 as a pro (despite already being 29 years-old). Duben is also 29. And she’s 6-1. She won her Contender Series fight with an epic overhand KO (see it here). She drew Carli Judice for her proper debut, though. Judice took her apart and finished her with a head kick (see it here).

Chaves is a massive favorite here, despite her only Octagon action coming in the Contender Series. That was a good fight, but it was very close. And Chaves was hurt in that fight, too. She was caught with the same punch that helped Duben go viral.

I think how raw Duben has looked is a big reason why she’s such a big underdog. I’m not going to pick her, but I think she’s capable of a surprise given how little we know about Chaves. I’ll take the under here, since both these ladies throw hard shots and leave themselves open for hard shots coming back their way.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+105)

Ketlen Souza (-305) vs. Arianne Carnelossi (+245)

Souza came from behind to take a decision over Bruna Brasil in February. Last year she fought, and lost, twice. Both of those were close split decisions to Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill. She’s 3-3 in UFC and has made all her contests pretty watchable with her aggressive brawling style.

Carnelossi was submitted by Talita Alencar in November. Her last win was a DQ against Piera Rodriguez after she received a few intentional headbutts on the ground (see those here). She’s 3-3 in UFC, too, but she’s not been nearly as exciting at Souza.

I think Souza is going to be too active and volatile for Carnelossi to handle. Carnelossi takes thing slow and is quite robotic in her striking and grappling. I think Souza should be able to stay on her feet and win the exchanges while racking up a pretty good striking differential. She likely won’t get the finish, though. So I’ll take the over (since it’s better odds than the moneyline).

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-238)

UFC Vegas 118 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Fares Ziam to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+600)

I’m really high on Ziam, in general, but in this fight I think he’s the far better fighter than Tom Nolan. Nolan is reckless with his defense and that’s a terrible thing to be against someone as clean and technical as Ziam. I think Ziam gets the finish here, but I also think he’ll be patient about it. Ziam doesn’t rush things. He likes to wait and strike when he has the best opening. And he usually does that to devastating effect. This has resulted in two of his best highlight reel finishes coming in later rounds.

Two-bet parlay: Santiago Luna and Priscila Cachoeira (+351)

I think Luna might be too athletic for Bryce Mitchell. I think there’s a chance Luna powers out of whatever Mitchell is hoping to do and is able to land on him with a lot of power in his hands, too. Cachoeira is the underdog despite her opponent being Chelsea Chandler… I’m pairing them together here for a nice potential return.

Marcus McGhee to win by split decision (+850)

I like McGhee and I think he’s a very good Bantamweight, despite his age and how far behind he is to Petr Yan (just like 90 percent of the division is). But I kind of saw something in John Yannis in his last fight. I think this fight is going to be very close and that McGhee comes out on top. McGhee is a heavy favorite, but if Yannis really shows up and McGhee takes him at all lightly, this could be a very competitive (and entertaining fight).

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 118: “Muhammad vs. Bonfim” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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