UFC Freedom 250’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Topuria vs. Gaethje

UFC Freedom 250 is live this weekend (Sun., June 14, 2026) on the White House lawn of all places and it’s streaming on Paramount+. There’s been a lot of talk about this thing and it finally seems to be here… so long as a lawsuit, lightning storm or plague of gnats doesn’t stop it.

The special seven fight card is headlined by Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje in a UFC Lightweight re-unification bout. The fight was a banger on paper, but there’s been plenty of animosity lately and that has added a new level of spiciness to the bout.

The co-main event is Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane for the interim UFC Heavyweight title. Though, would anyone be surprised if UFC just turned this into the undisputed belt and left Tom Aspinall on the bench indefinitely?

Rounding out this historic card is Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi, Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis, Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus, Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler and Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Freedom 250 Main Card Money Line Odds

Ilia Topuria (-500) vs. Justin Gaethje (+380)

I’m going to start this column off with a massive buyer beware warning.

This is a highly unusual event and there are all kinds of things that could factor into how these fights end up going on the night. These fighters may have to deal with extreme heat, bothersome bugs, slippery surfaces and potential rain/lightning delays. It might also just feel weird for fighters, who are used to the pretty sterile and predictable surroundings of the APEX or somewhere like the T-Mobile Arena.

I’m going to largely avoid this event, personally, because I just don’t know how much any of those conditions are going to effect what we see on fight night. For the purpose of this article, though, I’m going to pick things based mostly on how I would be thinking about these fights if they was happening at a regular fight night. I think that’s better than assuming one guy might have more jitters than another guy or that one guy is more irked by gnats than another.

When it comes to our main event, there are other intangibles at play, too. However, these are your more garden variety intangibles that we see in MMA. The biggest and most important one is the lay-off for Topuria.

El Matador hasn’t fought since June 28, 2025. That’s when he wrecked Charles Oliveira (see it here). That win came eight months after he wrecked Max Holloway (see it here). And that came six months after he wrecked Alex Volkanovski (see it here). The man’s a wrecking machine.

He’s sliced through the UFC roster like a hot knife through butter and rarely looked in any kind of trouble whatsoever.

Gaethje opened the Paramount+ era for us in January, by battering Paddy Pimblett to win the interim title. He did that as a +200 underdog. Before that he took a pretty comfortable decision over Rafael Fiziev (a short notice replacement for Dan Hooker). Those are Gaethje’s only fights since his epic KO loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300 in 2024.

Everyone and their cousin seems to think Topuria is going to knock Gaethje out in the first round. That’s why the odds on this are so short on Topuria.

I can certainly see the logic in that. Gaethje is getting up there and his tendency to leave his chin open and get into fire fights is not aging well. Topuria is one of the most deadliest snipers we’ve seen, ever, in the cage. So no one will be surprised to see Gaethje go down like Oliveira, Holloway and Volkanovski did before him.

Gaethje will have a lot of size on Topuria, but only one inch of reach. Topuria was able to KO Oliveira despite having a five inch reach disparity there.

I’m not going to advise anyone to bet against Topuria doing what we’ve seen him do repeatedly during his UFC career, but I do think it would be unwise to completely count out Gaethje. He won as an underdog before and he has a spirit and character to him that makes you believe he could rise to an occasion and defy some pretty weighty odds. I personally wouldn’t use that kind of metric for my own bets, but I think it’s worth considering that narrative along with suspicions of Topuria being over-confident and a little rusty.

If you think Topuria is winning this thing by strikes, then there’s not much out there worth betting on. Topuria -5.5 is still only -525. Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ is just -225. Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 is only +200.

From a purely value perspective, I’m going with over 1.5 for my best bet. It’s -110 and I think Gaethje’s toughness might see him get through a round or two (just like Holloway and Volkanovski did). We might also see a slow start from Topuria due to the long lay-off. And, there might also be rain or bug delays, that ruin the flow of the fight and makes things drag on.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-110)

Alex Pereira (-110) vs. Cyril Gane (-110)

Pereira moves up to the Heavyweight division this weekend to try and become a champion in a record three divisions. Win or lose, Pereira has already earned UFC Hall of Fame status for a speedrun that started in just 2021 and has seen him fight 12 times and win six title fights.

His last bout was a first round TKO over Magomed Ankalaev (see it here) last October. That win, which claimed back his Light Heavyweight title, was a rematch after his decision loss to Anakalaev seven months earlier. Pereira had won five fights in a row prior to that upset and earned himself the reputation for one of the most active UFC champions ever.

Gane’s last bout was in October, too. That’s when he treated Tom Aspinall’s head like a bowling bowl and forced a no contest. Gane ‘earned’ his opportunity to maul Aspinall by getting a split decision over Alexander Volkov. That decision, at UFC 310 in December 2024, was one of the worst judging decisions we’ve seen in the past few years. Before that robbery Gane won a very clean fight against Serghei Spivac, stopping him in the second round (see it here).

This is a coin flip with the odds and it’s a coin flip for me, too.

I faded Pereira in his last fight, worrying that his activity rate, age and side quests would catch up to him. And I was completely wrong. He’s not gotten younger since, then, but he has slowed his roll. We’re not seeing him as exposed as he was during that LHW title reign. I don’t think there’s any reason to question his focus for this one. And, at 38, that’s not senior citizen territory in MMA, especially at Heavyweight.

Gane is 36. And he’s massive. He’s the same height as Pereira, but he is a lot thicker. He weighed in at 247 lbs for his last fight. If there is any clinching or, God forbid, wrestling, than that size and strength advantage should be evident. I’m not sure if we’re seeing that on Sunday, though. I think we’re going to see a pitched battle with both men slinging their power shots at each other and seeing who goes down first.

Normally, Pereira is the guy you’ll pick to win that. However, I just can’t rule out Gane in that kind of fight. He was taking it to Aspinall, before going knuckle deep in the poor guy’s eye sockets.

If there’s a gun to my head, I’m going to pick Gane, since I think he and Pereira might be equal on the feet (at this stage in their careers and this weight class), but that Gane has the edge on everything other than striking. I know he was outwrestled by a one-legged Francis Ngannou and treated like a white belt against Jon Jones. But his modicum of wrestling ability plus all that size could be a problem for Poatan.

Best bet: Ciryl Gane moneyline (-110)

Sean O’Malley (-440) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+340)

O’Malley is probably Baron Trump’s favorite fighter, so it’s no surprise to see him on the card. However, with Zahabi’s inclusion the star power drops off at UFC White House.

Former Bantamweight champ O’Malley fought quite recently, defeating Song Yadong by unanimous decision on that Paramount+ debut card in January. Before that he dropped two bouts to Merab Dvalishvili, a man whose skillset seems like krypontie for the lanky striker with the cotton candy hair.

Zahabi hasn’t fought since last October. That’s when he took a very close split decision over Marlon Vera (in another of those bouts where Vera seemingly refused to get out of first gear). Before that Zahabi had a coming out party with a win over Jose Aldo in his hometown of Montreal. That was a wild fight with both men looking close to being finished. I was among those who scored that fight a draw. Many more had in Aldo’s favor, though.

Those wins mean Zahabi is currently riding a seven fight winning streak.

O’Malley is a big favorite here. I think Zahabi might be the best dog on the card, though. I don’t enjoy watching him fight, but his plodding, sturdy quasi-anti-fighting has been successful with judges. If O’Malley doesn’t hurt him in this fight, then I can see Zahabi walking forwards, popping his jab and forcing a close decision (which he might win).

Key to Zahabi’s success lately has been his striking defense. He has a very high 69 percent defense on significant strikes. That leads the entire UFC and is four points higher than Jon Jones’ career mark. It’s only four points below Georges St-Pierre’s record setting sig. strike defense (73.1%).

O’Malley has pretty good defence himself, though, at 60 percent. So I don’t think Zahabi is going to be able to block a lot of shots and then pop off too much with his own offense. I think we might see both guys struggling to land on each other at a decent clip. O’Malley should have the power advantage, though (along with four inches of reach). I think O’Malley might land the best shots and I have to assume that the judges might be able to see that and score accordingly.

Either way, I think those defenses are meaning this one goes the distance and to a decision.

Exact method of victory on this one is -160. I think that’s a nice conservative bet. I’ll try and make it a little more sexy, though. I’ll side with Suga and just hope the judges see it that way, too.

Best bet: Sean O’Malley by decision (+100)

Josh Hokit (-410) vs. Derrick Lewis (+320)

This late-ish edition to the UFC Freedom 250 card came after Hokit beat Curtis Blaydes in an all-time Heavyweight barn-burner/slop fest. Hokit moved to 9-0 after forcing Blaydes to abandon his usual gameplan and trade punches in bunches (likely due to how often Hokit flipped him in the bird in that fight). The win was Hokit’s fourth in a UFC Octagon and it’s provided him with ample opportunities now to do his budget bucket Macho Man act on the biggest stages the UFC has gained access to.

Lewis comes into this bout off a depressing TKO loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta (see it here) in January. That ended in the second round. Before the ending it looked a lot like Lewis, who is now 41, didn’t want to be there. Lewis is now 4-6 in his last ten with wins over Tallison Teixeira, Rodrigo Nascimento, Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Chris Daukaus. He’s lost to every recognizable name he’s faced (Jailton Almeida, Sergei Pavlovich, Tai Tuivasa, etc.).

It’s hard to say with confidence what might happen in this fight.

Was Hokit’s wild man approach with Blaydes tailored specifically to that opponent and with the grand scheme of making himself a viral hit? Or was Hokit’s approach something more primal and subconscious?

I’m leaning towards Hokit’s act being a lot more calculating that he lets on. I think he was intentionally trying to pull Blaydes into a crazy fight. It was the fight Blaydes had less chance of winning and it was the fight that had the most chance of making Hokit an overnight sensation. I think Hokit cares a lot about both those things.

Hokit might have also dragged Blaydes into that kind of fight because he didn’t respect Blaydes’ power. I think Hokit might not want to test Lewis like that. I think we might be at the stage where Hokit knows he just needs to win now and he can get himself up the ladder and maybe into a title fight.

To just win over Lewis, I think Hokit might use his incredible athleticism to get close to Lewis, push him into the cage or drag him down to the mat. If he can do that for five minutes, then Lewis probably doesn’t have enough left in the tank to answer back with a big KO shot.

If Hokit gets Lewis tired, he might then start throwing the kitchen sink at him. I don’t think Lewis will want to hang in there for very long if that starts happening.

This theory is going to have me go with the over here. I think overs might be the theme of the night, since a lot of those intangibles around this event might lead to weird breaks or pauses in fights/production.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+160)

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Mauricio Ruffy (-675) vs. Michael Chandler (+490)

What did Michael Chandler do to these folks?

After catfishing Muscle Milk Mike for years over a Conor McGregor fight that will never happen, the UFC have served him up to Ruffy who, I suppose at least looks a little like McGregor. Joe Rogan compared the Brazilian to McGregor, back when he almost killed King Green with a Barboza vs. Etim like spinning heel kick (see it here). Ruffy is now 4-1 in UFC with his best win being a destruction of Rafael Fiziev in January (see it here).

Ruffy’s lone loss is to Benoit Saint-Denis, who ran a grappling clinic on the Fighting Nerd and got a second round submission win (see it here).

Chandler, who turned 40 in April, is 2-5 in UFC and has lost his last three. His only UFC wins are over Dan Hooker (in his debut in 2021) and Tony Ferguson (who he smushed with a front kick — see it here). He was beaten the heck out of by Paddy Pimblett in his last fight, which ended in a third round TKO (see it here). That was back in April, 2025. Before that Chandler was dominated by Charles Oliveira for a unanimous decision loss.

I’ve been playing a lot of overs here, but I think this one is over quickly.

Pimblett was able to hit Chandler with whatever he wanted. If Ruffy has that same luxury, than Chandler isn’t going to be able to last very long.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-130)

Bo Nickal (-345) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+275)

Nickal last fought in November, when he starched Rodolfo Vieira with a head kick from hell (see it here). That was pretty surprising from the former stud wrestler. That win saw Nickal rebound from his TKO loss to Reinier de Ridder (see it here), which plenty of fans were calling a fraud check. Before the RDR loss, Nickal beat Paul Craig, by decision, in what was one of the worst fights of 2024.

Daukaus is the most surprising inclusion on the White House card. This time last year he was getting ready to fight Guram Gochashvili at Cage Fury 145 at the Hard Rock in Atlantic City. He bailed on that to fight Gerald Meershaert on short notice, at Madison Square Garden. He submitted Meerschaert in fifty seconds and the rest is history. This is Daukaus’ second run in UFC. He was cut in 2022 after initially going 3-4 1 NC.

This is yet another lopsided match-up on this card. And, like most of the others, it’s hard to make much of a case for the underdog. Daukaus has sneaky good power and submissions, but he’s scored finishes, mostly, on guys who are known for running themselves into trouble. I don’t think Nickal is going to give him many opening for that kind of thing on Sunday.

Nickal’s improving stand up really helps his wrestling game in the cage. I think we might see Nickal look like the total package in this fight. Daukaus will have to respect that striking and I think that means we’ll see Nickal stick and move on the feet and combo his strikes with takedowns.

The round total for this is 1.5 and I think we’re going way over that. I think Nickal is going to dominate and use a lot of his wrestling. Daukaus knows his stuff on the ground, so I don’t think Nickal will be able to get his quick arm triangle finish. Instead, I think he’ll be able to exhaust Daukaus for a lopsided decision of maybe a late stoppage.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-166)

Diego Lopes (-155) vs. Steve Garcia (+130)

This is an incredible fight.

Lopes heads into this match after losing to Alexander Volkanovski in January. That was his second loss to ‘The Great’ and it seemed like he had gone backwards in that fight, showing no improvements and getting totally stifled by the adjustment Volkanovski made after their first bout. In between those losses, Lopes beat Jean Silva — putting him down with a spinning elbow (see it here). Lopes is now 6-3 in UFC. His other loss was to Movsar Evloev.

Garcia is on a seven fight winning streak with all, but one, of those fights ending via KO/TKO. Last time out he smoked David Onama, in his debut main event fight (see it here). Before that he took a decision over the ghost of Calvin Kattar. Garcia fought cautiously against Kattar and then played it off as him being afraid of how dangerous Kattar was. I think he might have been trying to mask an injury there, though.

Garcia’s power is ungodly. I bet a lot of his previous opponents say things like “I’ve never been hit like that before.” When his punches land, they look like they could smash rocks. That being said, Lopes can probably argue that he has the hardest chin in the sport. He took some massive shots from Volkanovski and Silva and kept walking forwards.

I think he can probably stand up to Garcia’s power. If we’re just slinging punches at each other, then I think Lopes can probably win a close fight. If this goes any other way, though, Lopes should have a big advantage. Garcia is pretty untested on the ground, but I suspect Lopes is a far better grappler (based on what we’ve seen from him).

Those factors combined have me picking the Brazilian to win the first fight of the night.

Best bet: Diego Lopes moneyline (-155)

UFC Freedom 250 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Ciryl Gane to win by submission (+1000)

Remember Gane has a heel hook win in UFC (see it here)? If Gane does get to use his heft against Pereira, I think there’s a chance he will be able to hold him down on the ground for a decent amount of time. From the ground, I think there’s a chance he snatches up a big man kimura or a slow and lazy arm triangle.

Aiemann Zahabi to win by split or majority decision (+1400)

Zahabi has a really annoying fight style that has seen him squeak by in his last few fights. I don’t see a finish coming in this bout with O’Malley, so I think we’re going to the scorecards. With Zahabi’s style, that can lead to all kinds of things happening.

Seven fight parlay: Topuria, Gane, O’Malley, Hokit, Ruffy, Nickal, Lopes (+752)

It’s a shortened fight card, might as well get silly with it and try to hit on a Magnificent Seven. This is everyone I like and they are all favorites, outside of Gane (who is in a pick ‘em with Pereira). I think O’Malley is the riskiest leg of my parlay (for reasons stated above). But this feels like a fun way to enhance my viewing on Sunday (so long as Garcia doesn’t KO Lopes to start things off!).

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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