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The Dallas Wings are quickly cementing themselves as legitimate WNBA contenders, while the Phoenix Mercury continue to slide backward out of the elite tier.
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My Mercury vs. Wings predictions and WNBA picks for Thursday, June 11, lean heavily into this divide, aggressively fading a porous Phoenix defense at every opportunity.
Mercury vs Wings prediction
Mercury vs Wings best bet: Paige Bueckers Over 18.5 points (-130)
Paige Bueckers should shoot more. The Dallas Wings’ guard has not leaned all the way into a me-first approach, but she has taken at least 14 shots in three of her last four games. Two of those games featured 16 and 18 shots.
There is a sample-size concern, but Bueckers attempted at least 14 shots in only 24 of her 36 games last season and 16+ in only 15 of those 36.
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Taking 16 shots against the Lynx on Tuesday stood out, given Minnesota features the WNBA’s best defense. An aggressive Bueckers should relish facing the Phoenix Mercury’s disjointed defense.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
The greatest Mercury defensive liability is beyond the arc, where opponents have hit 38.0% of their shots this year, the highest mark in the WNBA.
Mercury vs Wings same-game parlay
The Mercury defense sets No. 11 in the WNBA in rating, but remove a win last week against the Storm — owners of the second-worst offense in the league — and that rating sits more truly around No. 13. Fading Phoenix’s defense in every way possible makes sense when considering a top-three offense in the league, a Wings’ perk that has largely flown below the radar this season.
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Mercury vs Wings SGP
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Paige Bueckers Over 18.5 points
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Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 assists
Douglas Farmer’s 2026 Transparency Record
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Best bet: 3-3, -0.4 units
Mercury vs Wings odds
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Spread: Mercury +6.5 | Wings -6.5
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Moneyline: Mercury +210 | Wings -260
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Over/Under: Over 169.5 | Under 169.5
Mercury vs Wings trend
Before Dallas took a walloping at Minnesota on Tuesday, the Wings had gone 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.2 points even when including the ATS loss. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Wings
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Location |
College Park Center, Arlington, TX |
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Date |
Thursday, June 11, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
9:00 p.m. ET |
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TV |
Prime Video |
Mercury vs Wings latest injuries
Mercury: Sami Whitcomb (Out).
Wings: Odyssey Sims (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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