Projecting Texas players in the 2026 MLB Draft

As Texas Longhorns head coach Jim Schlossnagle and his staff turn their focus to the NCAA transfer portal and on making final recruiting pitches to signed high school prospects in the 2026 recruiting class, the 2027 roster will be impacted by the 2026 MLB Draft.

Senior right-hander Ruger Riojas and redshirt senior left-hander Luke Harrison are the two players among the 10 Longhorns who have exhausted their eligibility who are projected selections in next month’s draft, while six other players are draft eligible, several of whom could potentially return to the Forty Acres for their senior season.

The draft projectsion are based on the draft board from Perfect Game posted in late April and are meant to reflect the player’s tools, if not their late-season results on the field.

Draft-eligible players expected to depart

Outfielder Aiden Robbins — No. 23

After finishing sixth nationally in batting average at .422 last year as a sophomore at Seton Hall, Robbins bet on himself and made the jump to the SEC, choosing Texas over other conference powers. It paid off, as Robbins earned first-team All-America honors by batting .333 with 24 home runs and 64 RBI, working with Troy Tulowitzki to change his swing path to turn topspin base hits into backspin home runs — the Pennsylvania product only hit 12 combined home runs in his first two seasons, doubling that output in burnt orange and white.

The power surge by Robbins ensured that he’s projectable as a corner outfielder, an important development after the attempt to further bolster his draft stock by playing center field ended with the Texas coaching staff forced to admit they had better options, as Robbins lacked the speed necessary to make up for consistently subpar reads off the bat.

Still, Robbins has plus athleticism and a whippy swing that produced power to the entire field, making him one of the top college prospects in the draft.

Catcher Carson Tinney — No. 58

The Notre Dame transfer pressed early in the season faced with high expectations after becoming one of the most coveted players in the portal. As a sophomore in South Bend, Tinney led the Fighting Irish in average (.348), runs (52), homers (17), RBI (53), total bases (119), walks (34), on-base percentage (.498), slugging (.753), and multi-RBI performances (17) while posting impressive exit velocities that spoke to his natural power.

When Tinney settled in at Texas, he was an impact player who slashed .326/483/.688 with 22 home runs and 58 RBI. Showing a command of the strike zone, Tinney drew 55 walks against 66 strikeouts, the latter stat less an indication of significant swing-and-miss issues and more related to his willingness to take two-strike pitches late in at bats.

A good athlete for his size who stole 10 bases, Tinney was a solid defensive catcher who gave up 24 stolen bases while gunning down eight runners. His two throwing errors in the first inning against Georgia to open the College World Series weren’t indicative of how he performed defensively.

Some draft boards project Tinney more towards the third round than the second, but even though he’s not quite an elite prospect at catcher, he still has tremendous upside because of his power and his eye at the plate.

Right-hander Thomas Burns — No. 173

The big power arm from Wisconsin is a burly 6’3, 240 pounds with a fastball that can reach triple digits with a cutter and a slider that give him closer potential. It’s a role that freshman right-hander Sam Cozart took over early in the season when Burns struggled with his command, limiting the Arizona State transfer to 23 appearances during which he posted a 5.63 ERA. Opponents only hit .181 against Burns and he struck out 43 batters in 22.1 innings, but he also walked 16 batters and looked surprisingly hittable given his pure stuff.

Despite the command issues, Burns has the type of pure stuff a pitching coach can’t teach and previous experience as a starter with the Sun Devils, so expect him to come off the board early on the second day and sign without much delay.

Return potential

The advent of NIL and subsequent scholarship expansion has coincided with the shortening of the MLB Draft. Once spanning 100 rounds in 1996, the draft was 50 rounds from 1998 until 2011, was 40 rounds for the eight years after that, and has been at 20 rounds since 2021, increasing the number of draft-eligible players who return to school.

Last year, Texas benefited from the shift when Riojas, Harrison, and Max Grubbs all announced their return for a final season in college before the draft. This year, it could help keep several players on campus.

Second baseman Ethan Mendoza — No. 353

Slotted as high as No. 218 by Three Quarter Slot in late April, updated boards in the coming days may reflect the medical concerns that will impact where or if Mendoza is selected in this year’s draft after aggravating his right shoulder injury in early May, which Schlossnagle revealed in Omaha has been bothering him all year after also impacting his 2025 season.

The persistent issues suggest that Mendoza may require offseason surgery and could potentially keep him from starting his professional career after the draft.

At his best, Mendoza is a capable second baseman with a contact-focused approach that takes advantage of the entire field, allowing him to bat .333 in 2025 as a more selective approach demanded by the Texas coaching staff allowed the Southlake Carroll product to go from 13 walks as a freshman to 36 as a sophomore.

During the offseason, Mendoza added around 15 pounds of muscle to increase his power, which seemed to impact his ability to hit the ball the other way. So even though he went from five home runs to 10 in 2026, his batting average dropped to .278, in part because his ability to run out infield singles decreased as his stolen bases dropped and in part because of his shoulder issues.

The combination of a potential need for offseason surgery and determining the most effective playing weight for Mendoza could influence his return. Mendoza is also a lifelong Longhorn who could feel like he has unfinished business on the Forty Acres.

Left-hander Haiden Leffew — No. 367

A more tenuous inclusion in this last than Mendoza or Borba, Leffew has as the tools to become a mid-round selection and start his professional career — at 6’1, 235 pounds, he has a level of physicality on the mound matched by a fastball that can reach into the mid-90s and a plus-plus changeup that has put him on the radar of major league scouts for several years now. The Wake Forest transfer also went 4-1 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 appearances in 2026, striking out 31 batters in 20 innings while holding opponents to a .176 batting average.

Leffew was basically unhittable at Texas, but batters often didn’t even have to try to put the ball in play against him thanks to shaky command that produced 15 walks in those 20 innings.

Just a few years ago, Leffew’s departure wouldn’t be in question, but now there’s at least a slim chance that he returns to the Forty Acres for another season.

Infielder Casey Borba — unranked

Ranked as the No. 252 prospect by FSS Digital in the 2023 MLB Draft, Borba’s intent to play college baseball caused him to fall out of the draft. Praised for his all-fields approach to hitting out of Orange Lutheran, Borba instead become reliant on his significant pull-side power at Texas.

Despite work with the Longhorns staff to use the entire field to hit, Borba remained pull heavy in 2026, putting a hard ceiling on his upside at the plate and limiting him to batting .266. Borba’s streaky power did help him hit 18 home runs and knock in 57 runs.

After spurning summer league baseball to improve his mobility, Borba flashed better range at both corner infield spots to emerge as a good third baseman.

But there are significant concerns about Borba’s remaining upside given his boom-or-bust tendencies at the plate as opponents successfully employ the shift against him. With the addition of Texas Tech transfer Linkin Garcia, Borba would be limited to playing first base or designated hitter next season for Texas, so his exit meeting with the coaching staff in the coming days may be the most important on the roster.

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