Dansby Swanson, George Springer, and more hitters it’s time to move on from in fantasy baseball

When it comes to fantasy baseball, we’re always scouring the waiver wire to see what hitters or pitchers may help our team climb up the standings. We spend less time doing research on who’s spot they’re going to fill. Today, we change that.

Now that we’re in the middle of June, it’s time to start having hard conversations about what “safe” players we can drop or try to trade away. Sometimes it’s just not a player’s year, and we’re coming to that point with a few batters, so I created a leaderboard to see which ones it’s time to part ways with. Searching from May 1st on (to avoid hot starts and get a sense of recent form), I created a leaderboard with barrel rate, zone contact rate, chase rate, and heart swing rate (swing rate on pitches in the heart of the plate). Then I removed all hitters who were above league average in each category. In my eyes, this gives us a leaderboard of hitters who, over the last six weeks, are not making enough contact in the zone, chasing outside of the zone more than they should, are being too passive on good pitches, and also not making hard contact. If you break it down like that, those are not hitters you want to roster.

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I did allow some hitters to qualify in one category, so that we could have a few more earnest discussions about hitters who have been disappointing us so far, and I think we have a pretty solid list, so let’s just dive in.

League average marks: Barrel Rate (7.9%), Zone Contact Rate (86.9%), Chase Rate (32.9%), Heart Swing Rate (71.4%)

Hitters to Cut or Trade in Fantasy Baseball

All stats are from May 1st to June 16th to account for recent production

As I mentioned above, some of these hitters are players I would outright cut, and others are ones I would be looking to trade away. There is also a section of players on this list who are likely going to be more valuable in fantasy leagues despite a flawed approach because of their stolen base contributions. Guys like Randy Arozarena, Brayan Rocchio, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have all stolen at least nine bases since May 1st, and all have a wRC+ over 100. You don’t need to move on from them in fantasy leagues, but you should be aware that there are some flaws in their profiles (this is even before Arozarena’s hamstring injury). For example, Arozarena has a slightly above average 8.1% barrel rate since May 1st, but is making far less contact in the zone than average and chasing outside of the zone more than average. He also has a .358 BABIP (league average is .287) and a 16.7% HR/FB rate (11.7% is league average. Yes, he’s hitting .292 since May 1st, but that’s likely a fluke given his extreme BABIP luck. You don’t HAVE to trade him away, but if you can get good value in a deal, his recent production is likely to decline.

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We know the concerns around Fernando Tatis Jr. all season, and his 7.9% barrel rate since May 1st is just league average. He’s also been league-average in zone contact and chase rate, so the approach is average. He’s sporting a .299 average over this span, but also has an inflated .363 BABIP. He has a .322 career mark, so this isn’t egregious, but it’s higher than we’d expect. He also has just two home runs in this 40-game span, so I still don’t know that you’re getting tons in a trade for him, and I doubt anybody is trading for Brayan Rocchio, but he has just a 3.8% barrel rate in this 38-game sample. That also comes with a below-average zone contact rate and a higher-than-average chase rate, while also sporting just a 68% swing rate at pitches in the heart of the zone, below the 71.4% league average mark. You can hold Rocchio for now because he’s stealing bases and providing counting stats, but if you’re OK in steals, he’s certainly a player you can move on from.

A couple of other players you’re probably holding onto because you expect to get speed are Chandler Simpson and Nico Hoerner. However, Simpson has three steals in this 37-game sample, and Hoerner has five in his 40 games, so you’re not getting the type of production there that you’d hoped for. We know that both players are going to make loads of contact, and their zone contact rates are higher than anybody on this list. They are also two of the only hitters who don’t have a single barrel all season. They’re both slightly better than league average in chase rate, and both of them are more passive on pitches in the heart of the zone than you’d like to see. If you really need steals, you’re not going to drop them, but they are both hitting under .225 in this stretch and not producing many RBIs, given where they hit in the order, so you’re not getting anywhere near the production you drafted them for.

A few players are on here because they’re rostered in over 35% of leagues, but I don’t think they need to be held outside of the deepest formats. Ezequiel Tover, Xander Bogaerts, Brooks Lee, Willi Castro, and Carter Jensen. Jensen may be a surprise because he’s an exciting young hitter who just had a five-hit game on Wednesday, but before that game, he was hitting just .197 since May 1st. That comes with a 7.4% barrel rate but a below-average zone contact rate. He’s not chasing outside of the zone, and he is attacking pitches over the heart of the plate, so we like to see that, but it almost makes his struggles more concerning because he’s still not producing. He’s just a two-catcher league option right now, and I might rather have a guy like Endy Rodriguez.

Jensen’s teammate, Vinnie Pasquantino, is now injured, but he qualified for this list, and I don’t believe he’s somebody you need to hold onto as he recovers from his hamate bone fracture.

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Lastly, I don’t have time to do full deep dives on Trea Turner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Gunnar Henderson, but they’re on this list, so I wanted to address them. You’re obviously not cutting any of them; these are players you’d be looking to trade away, and I’m open to exploring deals for all of them. A month ago, I recorded a video on Vlad Jr.’s power outage, and much of that remains the same. He has just three home runs all season and a career-low 6.3% barrel rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate. He’s chasing more outside of the zone than he ever has and swinging far more often on pitches in the fringes of the strike zone. Pitchers just aren’t challenging him, and there’s a really good chance that he doesn’t hit 20 home runs this season. On the other hand, Henderson is giving you power but not much else. His launch angle is the highest it’s ever been, his fly ball rate is the highest it’s ever been, and he’s pulling the ball 10% more often than last year. Pair that with the fact that he’s chasing more than he has, and I think you have a guy who is too focused on power. I’m also shocked he’s already been caught stealing four times after being caught just five times all of last season. I think his fixes are a little easier to make in-season than Vlad Jr.’s.

Lastly, Father Time may be coming for Trea Turner. The 33-year-old hasn’t hit a ball 110 mph all season, and the last time that was true was his brief cup of coffee in 2015. His bat speed is the same, but his swing has always been long, and he’s now posting the lowest barrel rate and hard-hit rate of his career. Much like the other struggling stars, he’s chasing more than he ever has and making less contact than he has in years. Like Hoerner and Simpson, he can still run and could push 30 steals this season, so don’t give him away, but I think he winds up with 15 home runs and maybe hits .260 the rest of the way, so that could be production you could replace if you’re good in steals and wanted to trade Turner for pitching or power.

Salvador Perez – C/1B, Royals

I have Perez on a few teams this season and, trust me, it feels about as bad as it’s looked. Since May 1st, he’s hitting .199/.251/.305 with four home runs and 15 RBI. That comes with just a 6.2% barrel rate and 50.3 wRC+. He’s making a league-average amount of contact in the zone, but is also chasing out of the zone 48% of the time since May 1st; that’s wild. Perez’s bat speed is down 1.5 mph, and his average exit velocities are down 1.5 mph on the season as well, giving him the lowest marks of his career. Overall, his barrel rate and hard-hit rate are right around league average, and he’s very likely to hit more than 20 home runs again, but maybe he’s back down to a 23 home run hitter who will also bat .220 and doesn’t draw any walks. With the lineup also struggling around him, there is no way he’s getting 100 RBI again and may struggle to even finish with 80. In a one-catcher league, it may actually be OK to move on for somebody like Gabriel Moreno or Francisco Alvarez.

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Maikel Garcia – 3B, Royals

Perez’s teammate, Maikel Garcia, has also struggled this year and is now battling a hand injury. Over his last 30 games, he’s slashing .263/.317/.333 with no home runs, 15 RBI, and just one steal. He has a nearly 40 percent hard-hit rate over that span, but just an 80 wRC+. He’s been dinged up for much of the year, so you’d almost hope he gets sent to the IL so he can get a reset. He’s not pulling the ball as much as last year and has taken his passive approach and made it even more passive, with just a 38.9% swing rate, the lowest of his career. That has led to a 23.4% called strike rate, which is one of the highest in the league. I still think Garcia can be a .270-.280 hitter, but he may finish with 10 home runs and is not running like he did the last three seasons. Given those same lineup concerns around him, I think Garcia is a drop in 10-team leagues and really only a fringe roster player in 12-team leagues if you can find 10-15 stolen bases elsewhere, like maybe Bryson Stott, Sam Antonacci, or Luke Keaschall

Dansby Swanson – SS, Cubs

Every projection system, especially the ones that use Statcast data, will tell you that Swanson is a top 10 shortstop, but, at some point, we have to believe what we’re seeing. He has the lowest wRC+ since May 1st of any player on this list at 25.7. He’s hitting .147/.225/.209 over that span with one home run, five RBI, and 16 runs scored. That comes with a 2.1% barrel rate and 79.3% zone contact rate. He’s not swinging outside of the zone too much, and he is attacking pitches in the heart of the strike zone, but he’s just doing nothing with them. I also don’t think this is about age for the 32-year-old. His bat speed is up. He’s hit a ball 110.3 mph this season, which is the hardest of his career, and he’s squaring up the ball as much as he did last year. His swing is a bit longer, and he’s seeing far more pitches outside of the heart of the strike zone. His zone contact has always been below average, and his swinging strike rate has always been high for a player without elite power, so maybe this was just a matter of time. What we have now is a 32-year-old shortstop who makes less contact in the zone than we want, swings and misses more than we want, does not get good pitches to hit, and does not make solid contact on the good pitches he does get. That seems like a player I’d rather not have on my fantasy team.

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Alex Bregman – 3B, Cubs

Swanson’s teammate has only been marginally better. Bregman does have a .250/.329/.348 slash line since May 1st, but that comes with three home runs, 23 runs scored, and 11 RBI. It’s not great from a fantasy perspective. Since May 1st, he also has just a 3% barrel rate and has been really passive in the zone. He’s still making an above-average amount of contact in the zone and not chasing outside of it, but it’s his lowest barrel rate since 2020 and his lowest hard-hit rate since 2022. Perhaps we should have seen this as a profile that might not age well. Bregman is a career .270 hitter, but a 6% barrel rate and 38.4% hard-hit rate tell us that he’s never made really damaging contact. He just makes a lot of contact. Well, his bat speed is now down over one mph, and he’s not getting the ball up in the air as much as before. However, another part of that his ballpark is a terrible fit. Bregman is 64th in baseball with a 23.1% Pull Air rate. In his career, the majority of his home runs have been pulled in the air because he lacks elite exit velocity. Wrigley Field is a bad place for righties to try to hit pulled home runs because of the winds that swirl off Lake Michigan. So Bregman may now be a .250-.260 hitter who’s going to hit 15 home runs and not steal many bases while putting up maybe 150 combined HR+RBI. That’s probably a profile that fits best in 15-team leagues.

Jackson Merrill – OF, Padres

Merrill is a tough one because I believe in the talent, but, since May 1st, he has just a 75 wRC+ and is hitting .208/.333/.235 with four home runs, 12 runs scored, 12 RBI, and six steals. Now, the home runs and steals aren’t bad over a 38-game sample size, and he could easily finish with a 20/20 season, which is obviously valuable. He also has a 9.3% barrel rate since May 1st and a 10.2% one on the year. So why are the results not there? He’s making slightly more contact in the zone than league average, chasing basically around the league average rate, and being more aggressive in the heart of the strike zone than average. His exit velocities are up. His bat speed is up. His pull rates and flyball/groundball rates are almost identical to last year. This one doesn’t make sense. This feels like a .260-.270 hitter who would go 20/20. Yes, the counting stats aren’t what we’d like to see because the Padres are struggling overall, but I think this may be a situation where I’m buying the dip.

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Steven Kwan – OF, Guardians

Sometimes we have to remind ourselves that baseball players are human beings who deal with the normal ups and downs of life. Kwan was placed on the Bereavement/Family Medical Emergency List at the end of May, and we still don’t know why, as he and the team have kept that issue personal. You get the sense that whatever it is is weighing on Kwan, who has not been the same player this year. He still has an exceptionally short swing and makes tons of contact. He still has basically the same pull rates as before, but is hitting fewer line drives and more ground balls. He’s also being far more passive than usual, with his swing rate down to 36%, and he’s also swinging at pitches in the heart of the zone 6% less often. Pitchers have also been challenging him with more fastballs, and he’s seen 4% more fastballs than he did last year. On top of that, he’s attempted just four stolen bases after stealing at least 19 in three of the last four years. Considering he was on your team for batting average and steals, Kwan, sadly, doesn’t feel like a player you need to roster right now.

George Springer – OF, Blue Jays

I know Springer seems to be slowly heating up, but he’s also hitting just .215/.310/.370 since May 1st. That has come with a 7.3% barrel rate, 86.7% zone contact rate, and 30.3% chase rate, so basically league average in all those areas. Yet, his bat speed is down, his exit velocities are down, and he’s squaring the ball up less often than before. He seems to have flattened his bat head a bit more through the strike zone, which could be leading to more groundballs, and he’s being more aggressive than he has been since 2022. Even though his chase rate is below league average, it’s still the highest mark he’s ever had. He’s also swinging at pitches on the edge of the strike zone more than he ever has, which seems to paint a picture of a hitter who is pressing. When you factor in that Springer is 36 years old and was on a decline before last year came out of nowhere, his step backwards this year makes more sense. We could be looking at a .240 hitter the rest of the way with 10-12 home runs and 5-6 steals while hitting in a decent lineup. That’s fine for 15-team leagues, but it’s not a player I think needs to be rostered in many shallower formats.