Summer break is the time for NFL teams and fan bases to let their imaginations run wild.
Before training camps start up, it’s easy for those on the inside and outside of even the most moribund franchises to harbor high hopes. After all, the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears last season became the latest teams to make the jump from divisional cellar-dweller to title winner, making it 20 of the last 23 years that the league has had at least one such case.
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But overnight transformations don’t come easily for the NFL’s bottom rung of franchises, as five of last year’s fourth-place finishers from 2024 ended up in the same spot at the conclusion of last season.
Here are our rankings of all eight candidates to make a worst-to-first leap in 2026, from most to least likely:
What’s working for them: Everything is trending in the right direction for the Saints, who won four of their final five games to close out Kellen Moore’s first year as head coach.
Quarterback Tyler Shough is one of the primary reasons for optimism, with plenty more expected from the signal-caller after he finished as the runner-up for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year with just nine starts under his belt. Not only do the signings of running back Travis Etienne Jr. and offensive guard David Edwards augur well for the development of the struggling ground game, but they also reinforce that New Orleans has finally left its salary cap woes in the past. And a substantially underrated defense could earn more acclaim in 2026, especially with Cameron Jordan returning to round out the pass rush.
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What sets the Saints apart from the other candidates on this list, however, is the extremely favorable divisional setup. There’s no entrenched power in the NFC South, and New Orleans was the only fourth-place finisher to post a 3-3 record against divisional foes. Eight or nine wins might be all that’s required for the Saints to reach the summit.
What’s working against them: A late-season surge isn’t always indicative of what’s to come in the following campaign.
Moore still has to find ways to integrate Etienne and first-round wide receiver Jordyn Tyson into an attack that wasn’t nearly explosive enough in its first year. Depth is still lacking almost across the board, leaving New Orleans more vulnerable to injury hits than some of its competitors. And while both the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers carry significant questions of their own into training camp, neither looks prone to a full-on collapse.
What’s working for them: Detroit will start the season as easily the most capable team on this list, and it might finish the year that way, too. The Lions stand alone as the only outfit among the eight to finish with a winning record in 2025 as well as a positive point differential, with its +68 mark actually the best in the NFC North.
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Last season’s downswing was relatively straightforward: The team broke in two new play-callers while again navigating a rash of injuries on defense. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs said earlier in June that the offense was well ahead of where it was at this point last year, and coordinator Drew Petzing could help the group achieve some consistency while still maintaining its explosive flair. If the defense avoids the kind of calamitous personnel hits that have derailed it for the last two years, the unit could be difficult to crack.
The NFC North is without equal as the league’s most cutthroat foursome, but the Lions are every bit as competitive as any other team within the group. Playing a fourth-place schedule, which prior to the Week 6 bye serves up only one team that had a winning record in 2025, could vault Detroit back to the top of the division it claimed in 2023 and ’24.
What’s working against them: With little room for error, Detroit could see its hopes dashed once again by a few simple setbacks.
The offensive line appears to have a more stable setup with All-Pro offensive tackle Penei Sewell flipping to the left side as first-rounder Blake Miller steps in on the right, but vulnerabilities up front could linger, particularly on the interior. Gibbs is also set to take on a much heavier workload after David Montgomery was traded to Houston, and any injury or missed time could have a major ripple effect. Meanwhile, improved health is hardly something the defense can rely on, with safety Kerby Joseph‘s uncertain recovery timeline for a knee ailment reinforcing the potential for further letdowns.
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In a lesser division, the Lions would likely enter the season as a front-runner. Yet another fourth-place finish seems equally as likely as a first-place one.
What’s working for them: With John Harbaugh calling the shots, the Giants might envision themselves as this year’s version of the Patriots, whose ascension last season was facilitated by the arrival of a proven winner at head coach and a second-year quarterback breaking out. Indeed, Big Blue is in a more promising position than most on this list due to Harbaugh’s presence and Jaxson Dart‘s trajectory.
Between an offensive line that looks solid for the first time in at least a decade and a defense that added several veteran starters, Harbaugh already appears to have several guardrails in place that could help expedite a sharp turnaround. The division layout isn’t easy, but last year’s midseason triumph over the Philadelphia Eagles backed up the notion that a punishing ground game led by Dart and Cam Skattebo can take the team to great heights. New York also had the league’s second-lowest winning percentage in one-score games last year at 1-7, so a blend of better fortune and more precision could carry a solid roster a good way.
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What’s working against them: Whereas New England‘s rapid rise could be traced to Drake Maye‘s explosive ability, the Giants seem committed to embracing a more deliberate offensive approach under coordinator Matt Nagy. That might help them reduce slip-ups – New York ranked as one of the league’s most penalized teams – and close the gap on more talented teams, but it probably won’t serve as a rocket to the top of the standings. And the attack might not take off in earnest until wide receiver Malik Nabers, who faces an uncertain recovery timeline from last season’s torn anterior cruciate ligament and meniscus, is close to full strength.
To replace nose tackle Dexter Lawrence, the Giants are counting on a pair of late free-agent signings in DJ Reader and Shelby Harris, both of whom are over 30. If the front doesn’t hold up, the defense could see a repeat of last season, when it allowed the most yards per carry (5.3) of any unit and never fully unleashed what was supposed to be a fearsome pass rush.
More: Ranking best NFL defensive players over 30: Who’s next after Myles Garrett?
Conquering the division seems like a lofty proposition for a team that hasn’t claimed the NFC East crown since 2011 and still has substantial work to do. If Dart has a true star turn, anything is possible. But a wild-card berth seems like the more reasonable goal.
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What’s working for them: Having a former No. 1 pick at quarterback puts Tennessee a tier above the teams that constitute the bottom half of this list.
For all the trouble Cam Ward encountered in a trying rookie season, he also showed remarkable resiliency in trying to generate a spark for an otherwise dormant offense. With a significantly improved receiving corps thanks to the arrivals of Wan’Dale Robinson and No. 4 overall pick Carnell Tate, Ward shouldn’t feel compelled to make things happen on his own as frequently as he did in his first year. Given his previous work molding dynamic playmakers in Dart and Josh Allen, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll should be a solid fit to help Ward balance his attacking mindset with a more tenable style of play. While Ward’s transformation might not prove as radical as that of Caleb Williams last season, the Bears still demonstrated there’s a way for a scintillating quarterback to bounce back from a rough debut season and reshape his team’s fortunes.
Yet the most immediate results for first-year coach Robert Saleh are likely to be evident on defense. Tennessee brought on five veteran who are likely starters for the unit via free agency or trade, and the depth is already significantly improved. All those changes could be enough to push the unit to the middle of the pack, which would be a substantial leap for a group that last year ranked eighth in scoring (28.1 points allowed per game) and defensive expected points added per play (+.07).
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What’s working against them: A meteoric rise can’t be treated as an assurance for a passer who ranked 31st in quarterback rating (80.2). Even if Ward makes strides, he’s still saddled with what remains distinctly subpar skill-position support. The real problem, however, might start up front. Between problematic protection and Ward’s proclivity for holding onto the ball as he seeks out downfield opportunities, Tennessee might again find itself taking sacks in bunches, which could throw off any semblance of offensive progress.
While the AFC South might lack a fixed power at the top, the Titans still have a considerable distance to make up after going winless in the conference last year and finishing five games back of the third-place Indianapolis Colts, which represented the second-largest gap of any last-place finisher.
Like the Giants, Tennessee could break free from the bottom of the league and take a few steps forward in Year 1 of a new regime. Leapfrogging the 13-win Jacksonville Jaguars and 12-win Houston Texans, however, doesn’t seem realistic.
What’s working for them: Gang Green gets a slight bump here by virtue of not owning the worst roster in the division. That distinction goes to the rebuilding Miami Dolphins.
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General manager Darren Mougey stayed busy this offseason, plastering over the many holes on the defensive depth chart with budget and mid-tier acquisitions. That effort could prove fruitful, especially if they can better generate turnovers after taking a dubious place in the NFL record book by going without an interception last season. A solid setup up front and in the ground game could provide some much-needed stability to the offense, which might finally get the level of perseverance it needs from under center with Geno Smith’s return.
What’s working against them: The Jets’ placement here only solidifies that we’re firmly in dart-throwing territory in the back half of this exercise.
While New York might be positioned to reach a level of respectability that the organization fell well short of the last two years, there’s little to suggest that any breakthrough would reach greater heights. Barring a breakout from the likes of wide receiver Adonai Mitchell or T’Vondre Sweat, a roster that was responsible for the NFL’s worst point differential in 2025 (-203) is still severely short on true difference-makers.
The fate of the offense lies in the hands of Smith, who led the NFL in interceptions (17) and tied for first in sacks taken (55) while working with another uninspiring support system in Las Vegas last season, and offensive coordinator Frank Reich, who was fired midseason in his last two pro jobs as his attacks unraveled. The coaching setup isn’t much more auspicious on the other side of the ball, where Aaron Glenn will be adding play-calling duties to his plate despite seeming overloaded by head-coaching responsibilities in his first year on the job.
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Ending the league’s longest-running playoff drought is an admirable goal. It almost certainly won’t be achieved by the Jets seizing the AFC East title – at least not this year.
What’s working for them: There are plenty of new elements here for the Silver and Black – no doubt a welcome development after last season’s failed reset under Pete Carroll.
Klint Kubiak’s play-calling acumen could help Las Vegas draw a sharp contrast from the offensive ineptitude of 2025, particularly if he can conjure more running room for Ashton Jeanty and dial up more explosive plays through play-action. With center Tyler Linderbaum coming aboard and left tackle Kolton Miller back in action after missing all but four games last season, the offensive line is in far better shape than it was a year ago. Kirk Cousins appears capable of keeping the starting seat warm for No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza, whether that’s merely for a few weeks in the summer or – more likely – a lengthier stretch that extends well into the fall. And with Maxx Crosby back in the fold – and perhaps eager to reassert his place as one of the league’s dominant edge rushing forces following the failed trade to Baltimore – a defense that might have been overlooked last year could be in a relatively solid spot following the addition of several key veterans.
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The Raiders were a popular pick last preseason to be one of the league’s most improved teams. Those projections proved to be wildly off the mark, but this year’s group looks poised to deliver in a number of areas where its predecessor didn’t.
What’s working against them: All those aforementioned new pieces almost certainly will require a good bit of time to coalesce.
Kubiak has a steep challenge ahead of him in trying to breathe life into what was the league’s most lackluster offense. Neither Cousins nor Mendoza can be counted on to be the kind of catalyst necessary to compensate for an inadequate receiving corps. And even with a talent infusion at several spots on defense, Las Vegas remains shaky at defensive tackle and on the back end.
The Raiders might end the season as a more formidable operation than some of the teams ahead of them on this list. But the dynamic within the imposing AFC West caps their ceiling. Las Vegas has to demonstrate it can at least consistently push the other three playoff contenders before it can be seen as a legitimate threat.
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What’s working for them: Andrew Berry finally replenished the roster with sorely needed young building blocks in last year’s draft class. If the latest crop of rookies has as many similar success stories, Cleveland could really have something cooking.
Moving on from Myles Garrett was no doubt painful for the franchise, but securing Jared Verse could help the defense keep up its pressure rate. First-time head coach Todd Monken might provide a fresh voice and vision for an offense that seemed to grow stale under Kevin Stefanski. And while no one should expect salvation from the quarterback competition, an overhauled offensive line could bolster the outlook for the unit.
More: Shedeur Sanders or Deshaun Watson? Browns’ Todd Monken still undecided at QB
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What’s working against them: Cleveland’s last division title came in 1989, when the organization resided in the AFC Central. Somehow, the franchise looks as far as ever from ending that league-worst drought.
In trading away Garrett, the Browns seemed to acknowledge that they weren’t equipped to be competitive this year. That’s not exactly a bold assertion, given the state of the quarterback room and a defensive regression that already appeared imminent after coordinator Jim Schwartz’s acrimonious departure. Still, Cleveland is one of a handful of organizations bracing for a difficult fall while hoping for a more prosperous 2027.
Barring Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders making a full star turn, there’s probably not much reason to invest much in an organization that doesn’t seem to be expecting much from itself this year.
What’s working for them: Well … unexpected things happen in the NFL, right?
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Arizona was ravaged by health setbacks in 2025, finishing the season with 24 players on injured reserve. Some improved luck there and in close contests – the Cardinals were 2-8 in one-score gams and became the first team in NFL history to lose three straight contests on a score as time expired – could provide a significant boost to the team’s bottom line.
While neither Jacoby Brissett nor Carson Beck inspires much confidence behind center, there are more than enough key pieces – namely tight end Trey McBride and wide receiver Michael Wilson – for the aerial attack to take flight. No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love could revitalize the ground game, which could alleviate pressure on a defense that collapsed down the stretch last season.
What’s working against them: The dynamics within the NFC West are enough to end the conversation here. Arizona has the misfortune of competing in the only division that produced three playoff teams last year in the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The gulf between them and the Cardinals only appeared to grow this offseason.
Arizona might not have the weakest roster in the league, but this remains a bottom-five group after adding little help through free agency. An underdeveloped offensive line remains ill-equipped to safeguard Brissett or Beck, with each signal-caller’s play style likely compounding the inevitable pressure problems. Beyond Josh Sweat, the defense looks deficient at nearly every spot.
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Avoiding another fourth-place finish would be a stunning development for the Cardinals – and likely indicative of serious injuries elsewhere. Surging past three top contenders is a full-on fantasy.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Worst to first? Ranking 8 NFL teams’ chances of jumping to top of division in 2026
