Even with the MLB trade deadline pushed back to August 3 this year, July still represents the time of year when everyone talks about trades. The Phillies’ 40-20 stretch under interim manager Don Mattingly has catapulted them into buying territory as a team with World Series aspirations. Their expectations for playing deep into October are still the same and reinforcements might go a long way.
Under Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies have typically waited until the day of to make trades. They did get Carlos Estevez multiple days before the deadline and Jhoan Duran the day before in back-to-back seasons but they still generally take things down to the wire.
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Assuming that, there is roughly a month from the time of this writing until the deadline. So, here are three things to watch for prior to the deadline.
These three teams entered the season with playoff aspirations. The Baltimore Orioles added Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, and Shane Baz for a bounce-back season but are eight games under .500 on July 3 and five games out of a playoff spot.
Roughly a week ago, Orioles President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias declared his team to be buyers at the trade deadline, and the club has gone 1-4 since. Given those comments, it might take a bit more falling over the next month to get Elias to sell but he could be left with no choice.
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If the Orioles are sellers, Taylor Ward would become the best fit for the Phillies outfield at the deadline. He is generally a streaky hitter and an ok defender, but brings a plus eye at the plate. He has not played a single game in right field since 2022 but sliding over for two months is probably not a massive deal. They could slide Brandon Marsh over if needed. Again, it would only be temporary.
There are some red flags with Ward, his pull air rate is down from 17.8% last year to 12.2% and he does not have the raw power to make that work consistently. His bat speed is down over a mile per hour so there might be physical decline. Again, he is only a rental.
The New York Mets season has been pretty brutal. It’s not all terrible but most of it is. They came into the season expecting to make the playoffs and will be clear sellers at the deadline.
They are a match if the Phillies are looking for bullpen help. Luke Weaver has a 2.00 ERA in 36 innings with the Mets after cutting down his fastball usage. He is owed another year with eleven million, which would boost his trade value so it might cost the Phillies too much.
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If they are looking for rentals, AJ Minter and Brooks Raley are interesting fits. Minter missed the beginning of the season recovering from tearing his lat last season but has pitched 14 games and hasn’t allowed a run. His velocity is down nearly two miles per hour and he is not striking out nearly as many batters.
Even at 38, Brooks Raley is still suppressing hard contact while getting strikeouts. He is the classic funky left hander that just knows how to get outs.
The only reliever mentioned with true October stuff is Weaver but the others could help fill a left handed void if the Phillies still need it this time next month.
The Giants have been a disaster with Tony Vitello. There might be too many issues to explain in this article. It’s just all bad.
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Robbie Ray makes sense if the Phillies are looking for a starting pitcher. He could slot in as their #4 but might help in a bullpen role if needed. Again, there are red flags. Ray is not getting enough strikeouts or swing and miss, is still prone to walks, and allows a lot of hard contact. The Phillies might not be the best fit.
José Alvarado
No one is going to tell you a 6.10 ERA is good or that he is actually having a good season. He is not.
However, it might not be nearly as bad as people think. Alvarado’s BABIP allowed is over 100 points higher than a year ago despite being very good at limiting hard contact and barrels. His 66.9% strand rate would also be the lowest of his career in a season where he pitched 30 innings or more. He is still striking plenty of hitters out, limiting walks, and throwing gas.
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This is all to say that their best left handed reliever option this deadline is probably Alvarado figuring it out. Given all of the indicators represent a pitcher that seems to be getting very unlucky, that just doesn’t seem as impossible as you would think.
Over the next month, it would still be good to see some results. If he can go on a heater, which might be the most likely outcome, then it might allow the Phillies some trade deadline flexibility.
The Phillies might not be able to make a big offensive upgrade at this trade deadline. That hitter might not become available, and even if he does, the Phillies might not have the prospects to get it done.
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April and May were not good months for the Phillies offense but June was. Over that month, they ranked tenth in wRC+ and fourth in home runs. Will it last? That probably depends on Trea Turner.
In 380 plate appearances, Turner is hitting .239 with a .653 OPS as an established top-of-the-order hitter in this lineup. He isn’t the only issue in their lineup, but Alec Bohm, Justin Crawford, JT Realmuto, or whoever you want to label a problem can’t get on the heaters like Turner.
That heater might’ve started, Turner is hitting .340 with a .950 OPS over his last 48 plate appearances. If this can continue for the rest of the season, and that seems like a pretty big if, he might indirectly be the big offensive upgrade the Phillies get this trade deadline.
