PHILADELPHIA — Three months and 16 days have passed since opening day, and now that the All-Star break is here, do we really know anything more now than we did back in March?
The Los Angeles Dodgers still are the best team in baseball and, with a 61-34 record entering Saturday, could realistically pop the champagne corks in August, running away from everyone in the National League West.
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The Colorado Rockies, even with a new front office, still stink at 39-57, and are on their way to their fourth consecutive 100-loss season.
The Milwaukee Brewers continue to embarrass every prognosticator and algorithm that predicted this would be the year they’d be sitting home in October, and now watch them sit with a 7 ½-game lead in the NL Central entering Saturday.
And as far as everyone else, welcome to the land mediocrity, where 24 teams are within six games of a playoff berth, putting the Aug. 3 trade deadline into chaos.
While everyone has breathlessly been talking about the trade deadline since mid-April, producing tens of thousands of words on paper and on the airwaves, what if this turns out to be the dullest trade deadline in decades?
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What if the Detroit Tigers, who have the American League’s best record since June 1, actually hang onto two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal?
What if the Boston Red Sox, who perhaps have the most valuable trade chips in starter Sonny Gray, closer Aroldis Chapman and first baseman Willson Contreras, believe they’re a legitimate contender after winning 12 of their past 14 games, climbing to within 1 ½ games of a wild-card berth?
What if no one is desperate enough to spend hundreds of millions to take Rafael Devers, Willy Adames or Matt Chapman off the San Francisco Giants‘ hands?
What if there are so many teams in the wild-card race at the trade deadline, with perhaps 84 victories getting you into the dance, no one wants to sell?
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Well, after three months of gathering no clarity except for the fact that this may be the Dodgers’ best team yet in their dynasty, here are the top five story lines for the second half of the season:
Will Detroit Tigers trade Tarik Skubal?
Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal pitches against the Yankees during the second inning at Yankee Stadium in New York on June 30, 2026.
Skubal is the difference between a glorious trade deadline and perhaps a dull one.
He’s also the one player who could be the Dodgers’ kryptonite, knowing that any team that has Skubal in the postseason has the potential to end the Dodgers’ dreams of a three-peat.
Can you imagine the Brewers with Skubal and Jacob Misiorowski in the same rotation? Or the Atlanta Braves with Chris Sale and Skubal? How about the New York Yankees with a four-headed monster of Skubal, Gerrit Cole, Cam Schlittler and Max Fried?
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Or, what if the dude goes nowhere.
Skubal is back, healthy, and he also could be the one salvaging the Tigers’ season. Everyone in the AL Central had a chance to put the Tigers away when they lost 21 of 25 games and dropped to 22-38. But instead, Skubal came back and the Tigers took off. They have gone 21-12 since June 1 and are suddenly back in the race. They entered Saturday 4 ½ games out in the AL Central and 2 ½ games back in the wild-card race.
Forget the narrative that the Tigers could thread the needle and trade Skubal while also acquiring players.
Either they go all in, or all out.
If the Tigers keep Skubal, and perhaps grab another late-inning reliever, they suddenly could be awfully scary with Framber Valdez, Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty and a future Hall of Famer named Justin Verlander.
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When will Aaron Judge be back, and what would it mean to Yankees?
Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge watches action from the dugout during the fourth inning against the Twins at Yankee Stadium in New York on July 4, 2026.
Well, let’s put it this way: Aaron Judge better return this year from his fractured rib or the Yankees will have a long, cold winter in the Bronx.
Just in case anyone wondered how valuable Judge is to the Yankees, all you have to do is look at this season. They are a World Series contender with Judge in the lineup. They are a flawed, mediocre team with zero hopes of catching the Tampa Bay Rays without him.
Judge, who has been on the IL since June 5, will have his rib re-imaged during the All-Star break. That should provide a timeline for his return, with the Yankees hoping he’ll be back sometime in August.
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“I don’t think we’re anticipating it’s coming back clean,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said. “I think we’re anticipating and hopeful that it’s showing the healing process. … The time frame that it would take to heal should allow him to be back with us this season.”
Judge broke his rib diving in the outfield April 26, but he played with the injury for another month before going on the IL.
So how badly have they missed him?
Let us count the ways: The Yankees have lost 15 of their past 22 games. They’ve scored an MLB-low 73 runs since June 18. And they’ve struck out an MLB-leading 230 times since June 18.
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“Clearly, you miss him,” Cashman told reporters. “That’s certainly part of it. But that’s not an answer to why we’re struggling with some consistently really good players that are going into collective slumps at the same time. That has nothing to do with Aaron Judge.”
Then again, it has everything to do with Judge.
They simply are a different team without him, and the quicker they get him back, the better chance they’ll have to run down the first-place Rays.
Can anyone beat Dodgers? Anyone?
The Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani reacts next to teammates Dalton Rushing (68) and Miguel Rojas (72) after Ohtani’s three-run home run against the Athletics during the sixth inning at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, California on June 29, 2026.
The Dodgers have been a runaway freight train since the first pitch, winning 15 of their first 19 games, and now on pace to win 106 games for their best winning percentage since they won 111 games in 2021 – back in the days when they couldn’t get out of the first round.
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They’re doing all of this despite Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow – who are earning $53 million – combining for 42 ⅔ innings; right fielder Kyle Tucker, who’s earning $60 million, hitting seven homers; and $23 million closer Edwin Diaz sidelined since mid-April with four saves.
So, imagine when Snell, Glasnow and Diaz return? Imagine when Tucker starts showing a semblance of himself again? Imagine when Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Max Muncy get hot at the same time?
Realistically, this is why the NL teams will be more aggressive than the American League teams at the deadline, knowing they have to go through Los Angeles to be in the World Series. The Philadelphia Phillies, with Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo, can certainly match up with the Dodgers in a short series, but they could use another starter and certainly a right-handed hitting outfielder. The Brewers will take Misiorowski against anyone, but what if they had Skubal to go with him? Or if the Braves added Skubal or Sonny Gray to go alongside Chris Sale.
The Dodgers can be beaten, and they were awfully fortunate enough to get past the San Diego Padres two years ago and the Toronto Blue Jays a year ago. But now is the time to take your best shot.
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A year from now, it wouldn’t surprise a soul if the 2027 Dodgers have Skubal in that rotation, too.
Will those fabulous Cinderella stories crash and burn or will the magic continue?
White Sox first baseman Jacob Gonzalez celebrates his three-run home run with teammates Tristan Peters (29) and Braden Montgomery (24) against the Royals during the third inning at Rate Field in Chicago on June 26, 2026.
Yes, we’re talking about you, the Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals.
These teams opened the season in a full-scale rebuild, retool or reboot, and here they shocking the world in the first half.
Who would have imagined that the Marlins, who traded away prized young starting pitchers Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers during the winter, would be winning 16 of their past 20 games for their greatest 20-game stretch since 2004. They are an MLB-best 26-9 since June 1, with shortstop Otto Lopez hitting an MLB-leading .341, and have the same record as the Phillies. They have a two-game lead in the wild-card race.
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The Cardinals traded away everything but the St. Louis Arch during the offseason in their first fire sale in two decades, but here they are, hanging just two games back of a wild-card berth.
The Nationals traded prized starter MacKenzie Gore and let everyone know that CJ Abrams and James Wood were available during the winter, too, but now have a winning record and are hovering in the wild-card race.
And then there are the White Sox, the team that utterly embarrassed themselves two years ago by losing an MLB-record 121 games. But even after slugger Munetaka Murakami went down with an injury for 35 games, the White Sox still are tied for first place in the AL Central.
It’s absurd. It’s insane. It’s baseball.
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No one in their right mind had any of these four teams competing this year, let alone having a legitimate chance to be playing in October.
It’ll be a fascinating watch at the deadline just to see how much the front offices believe in their teams themselves.
What is the future of managers on the hot seat, particularly first-year and interim managers?
Giants manager Tony Vitello watches the action from the dugout during a game against the Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta on June 16, 2026.
Tony Vitello: The Giants took an unprecedented gamble when they hired Vitello from the University of Tennessee, and it has badly backfired. It certainly hasn’t helped that the Giants surrounded him with a huge contingent of young and inexperienced coaches, but they are the biggest mess outside Queens.
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They’ve embarrassed themselves with their performance, leaving them no choice but to place every veteran on the trade block but starter Logan Webb.
It might be too embarrassing to fire Vitello after one year, but it wouldn’t surprise a soul to see Vitello return to the college ranks if the right opening comes his way.
Craig Stammen: Remember when the Padres stunned everyone by hiring Stammen, a former reliever who had no managerial or coaching experience, to be their first-year manager, choosing him over the likes of Bruce Bochy, Albert Pujols, Brandon Hyde and Phil Nevin?
It’s not as if Stammen can be blamed for all of their offensive troubles and battered starting rotation, but someone is going to have to take the fall, and it’s not going to be general manager A.J. Preller, who has already hired six different full-time managers.
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Kurt Suzuki: Suzuki, another manager with zero experience before agreeing to a one-year contract to manage the Los Angeles Angels, has yet to make a difference. No one is saying the Angels are his fault by any means, and folks believe that he has a chance to be a good manager in the future, but it’s unlikely he’ll get that chance with the Angels.
There’s a new sheriff in town in John Mozeliak, and he’s expected to hire a new GM, who surely will want his own guy. The popular choice will be Albert Pujols, who actually had the job until he wanted a five-year contract and the ability to hire his own coaching staff. We’ll see if there could be a compromise this time around, particularly with Mozeliak his former GM in St. Louis.
Andy Green: Green is just a temporary hold until the New York Mets hire a new manager after the season when he returns to the front office. New Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran should be the leading candidate after having the job pulled away from him in 2020.
Don Mattingly: Mattingly was hired to be the Phillies’ interim manager after Alex Cora rejected the job when Rob Thomson was fired. It was supposed to last only until the end of the season, but Philadelphia has performed so well under Mattingly that he might win NL manager of the year. And now he says that he’d love to stay if given the opportunity.
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The job is still expected to be offered again to Cora after the season, but if the Phillies win the World Series, all bets are off.
Joe Espada: This is Espada’s third year with the Houston Astros. They have yet to win a postseason game, failing to make the playoffs last year for the first time since 2016. Simply, the Astros have to at least make the playoffs, if not play deep into October, for Espada to survive.
Torey Lovullo: Just three years ago, the Arizona Diamondbacks were in the World Series. They haven’t made the playoffs since and are teetering on irrelevancy. Mike Hazen, D-backs president of baseball operations, continues to support Lovullo, but Lovullo is on the final year of his contract and there have been zero talks of an extension. It might be playoffs or bust.
Matt Quatraro: The Kansas City Royals just locked up Quatraro in January with a three-year contract extension through 2029. They certainly had no intention of considering pulling the plug after one year of the new deal. Then again, they never imagined this might be their most disappointing season in franchise history.
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Aaron Boone: GM Brian Cashman once again reiterated his support for Boone, believing he’s the right man for the job, and exonerating him for their struggles this year. Yet, if the Yankees don’t win the AL East this year, if the Yankees don’t play deep into October, or if somehow the Yankees miss the playoffs altogether, Cashman might have no choice but to make a change for only the fourth time in 30 years.
Around the basepaths
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The Rays, who suddenly are seeing that the AL is wide open for the taking, plan to be aggressive buyers at the deadline. They not only have their eyes on Skubal, but they have shown interest in seeing whether the Diamondbacks would move second baseman Ketel Marte and Giants All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez as a backup plan.
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The Diamondbacks shopped Marte during the winter, but pulled him off the market before spring training. He now has 10-and-5 rights and is expected to veto all trades, which Arizona has told teams.
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Skubal has informed friends that he badly wants to stay in Detroit the rest of the season, believing they have a legitimate shot at the World Series, and has zero appetite to be traded. “I’ve never lost faith,” Skubal says.
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Marlins owner Bruce Sherman is telling his employees that he wants to keep ace Sandy Alcantara, who went 6-0 with a 3.35 ERA in June, and has absolutely no intention of trading him at the deadline.
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The Seattle Mariners are letting teams know that they are willing to trade one of their prized starters for a back-end reliever and right-handed hitter, most likely Luis Castillo. They not only have a surplus of starters at the big-league level with a six-man rotation, but they have the finest pitching prospect in baseball with Kade Anderson. Anderson’s numbers are mind-boggling at Class AA where he has a 1.36 ERA and .160 opponent’s batting average in 14 starts. He has 99 strikeouts with just 10 walks in 66 ⅔ innings. That’s a 41.4% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate. The Mariners would also be clearing payroll by dealing Castillo, who is owed $22.75 million this year and next year.
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Just in case a thousand or so reporters want to ask once again, Mike Trout wants to stay with the Angels and has no interest in being traded. He also has all of the power with a full no-trade clause to go along with his 10-and-5 rights.
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The Yankees are making it no secret that they want to acquire catcher Hunter Goodman of the Rockies or Minnesota Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers. Yet, the Rockies plan to keep Goodman, who has the second-most homers in the NL behind Kyle Schwarber, and the Twins have no interest in trading Jeffers unless they fall out of the mediocre AL Central race, hanging just 2 games back.
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Now with the seven veteran umpires who are 59 years or older who qualified for MLB’s buyout, there will not be a single umpire 60 or older in the major leagues next season, perhaps for the first time in modern-day MLB history.
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The Phillies have included Diamondbacks left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. among their possible trade targets for a right-handed hitting outfielder, which also includes Angels right fielder Jo Adell. Gurriel, however, is hitting just .222 with two homers, 20 RBI and a .565 OPS in 45 games since opening the season on the IL.
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The Royals will listen but have no intention of trading Michael Wacha, who not only made the All-Star team for the first time in 11 years but is considered an invaluable clubhouse leader. He also is under team control at $14 million a season through 2028.
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Kudos to MLB for selecting Alan Porter, born and raised in Philadelphia, to be the crew chief and home-plate umpire at the All-Star Game.
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Red Sox fans should send thank-you notes to former GM Chaim Bloom, now with the Cardinals, for sending them Cy Young candidate Sonny Gray and slugger Willson Contreras in the offseason. The Red Sox would be a disaster without them.
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Remember Josh Hader? He’s back to being one of the finest closers in the game. Hader has appeared in 15 games for the Astros since debuting after opening the season on the IL, and he has given up just two hits and one run in 15 innings, striking out 24. He’s perfect in all nine of his save opportunities and generating a stunning 43.8% chase rate. Hader, who is in the third year of a five-year, $95 million contract, is not available in trade talks.
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Chicago Cubs ace Justin Steele, who hasn’t pitched since April 7, 2025, is expected to start throwing off a mound the first week of August, but Cubs manager Craig Counsell said it will be too late in the season for him to rejoin the rotation and instead would be used in the bullpen in September.
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The Astros, who have gone 26-19 since May 21, desperately want another starter. Their rotation is yielding a 5.29 ERA, second-worst in MLB.
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The Dodgers’ big midseason acquisition will be two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell. He hasn’t faced a hitter since his lone start May 9, but after undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove bone chips he has started facing live hitters again. He claims this is the best he has felt in two years, with his shoulder pain gone, too. Snell has thrown only 64 innings since signing his five-year, $182 million contract, but he was invaluable in last year’s postseason – 3-0 with an 0.85 ERA the first three rounds – and has a chance to have a major impact again this October.
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While the Texas Rangers could be interested in trading shortstop Corey Seager this winter, his trade value has absolutely plummeted. He has been on the IL six times in the past two years, and is owed $155 million over the next five seasons.
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Rival executives are intrigued to see whether A.J. Preller trades Padres All-Star closer Mason Miller at the deadline with their team spiraling downward, but they laugh at the notion they will receive anything close to the package they surrendered to the Athletics to acquire him. Shortstop Leo De Vries, the No. 2 prospect in baseball, was featured in that swap.
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The Mets’ best trade chip might not be starter Freddy Peralta, but actually reliever Luke Weaver. Peralta, who has been a disappointment with the Mets, will be strictly a rental as a pending free agent. Meanwhile, Weaver has thrived and is under control through 2027. Weaver is yielding a 1.89 ERA in 38 innings pitched, and hasn’t given up an earned run in 24 appearances since May 1.
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Loved seeing Blue Jays manager John Schneider letting Dylan Cease have a chance to throw only the second no-hitter in franchise history when he entered the ninth inning having already thrown a career-high 115 pitches. “I’m a fan of baseball,” Schneider said. “I think if a guy has a chance to throw a no-hitter, I think you let him do it, and you make adjustments after that.”
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The coolest thing for Tigers rookie shortstop Kevin McGonigle making the All-Star team? “Mike Trout texted me,” McGonigle said. “Trout texted me and congratulated me. That’s the one, I was like, wow, that’s pretty wild.” McGonigle is the first Tigers position player to make the All-Star team at 21 years old or younger since Hall of Famer Al Kaline in 1954 and 1955.
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Ever since several D-backs officials and players expressed their frustration with Ketel Marte for sitting out their game against the Dodgers and starter Shohei Ohtani, Marte has since played in every game – starting all but six times this season. “He’s very driven as an athlete overall,” D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said. “I think he wants to be elite and be recognized as one of the best players in the league. I know that he knows to do that, you got to play. You’ve got to play a lot and post and perform. He’s been doing that really well.”
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The Brewers’ urgency to acquire a starter at the deadline was heightened with the uncertainty of veteran Brandon Woodruff pitching again this season. They would also like to acquire an impact bat for the left side of their infield.
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The Cincinnati Reds already are getting plenty of interest in Spencer Steer, who can play first base, third base and left field. He’ll be in high demand with so few impact bats available at the deadline.
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While the Giants love having second baseman Luis Arraez, who’s willing to sign an extension, the cold-hearted truth is that they need to clear infield spots for Casey Schmitt and Bryce Eldridge, leaving Arraez out of the picture. They also already have six players earning more than $20 million this year.
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You know the Pittsburgh Pirates are serious about getting into the playoffs when they traded away their Competitive Balance pick (No. 34 overall) to the White Sox for shortstop Jacob Gonzalez and left-handed pitcher Brandon Eisert. The Pirates, who have already hit more home runs than all of last season, badly needed another infielder with rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin sidelined for two months with his left ring finger injury, and they were willing to sacrifice a valuable draft pick.
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You think the Dodgers wish they had kept Yordan Alvarez, the Cleveland Guardians had kept Junior Caminero, the Rays had kept Cristopher Sanchez or the Giants had kept Otto Lopez? They will be bringing back the painful memories of “what if” at the All-Star Game.
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The most underrated part of the All-Star weekend is the Swingman Classic with Ken Griffey Jr., featuring HBCU programs across the country, showing their talents in front of scouts.
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Hall of Famer Frank Thomas, formerly of FOX, is launching his own sports network.
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Stat of the week, courtesy of @MLBRandomStats: From 1901-2015, there was not a single pitcher who had a perfect game through 6 innings and was pulled from the game. From 2016-2025: Three pitchers were pulled with perfect games through 6 innings. This week: Twice in four games.
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Quote of the Week: Padres third baseman Manny Machado on their first half woes: “Obviously, you know, there’s a lot of things that haven’t really been going our way. It’s baseball, man. That’s the beauty of it. And I’ve been a part of it, and it’s a beautiful game, and we’re all stupid to be playing it. We’re all stupid to be playing it, because it’s a life of struggle.”
Follow Bob Nightengale on X: @Bnightengale
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What do we really know at MLB All-Star break? Baseball’s biggest second-half questions
