The college football world got a big treat on Saturday when ESPN released its first FPI rankings for the 2026 season. The FPI uses a specific formula to evaluate and rank the strength of each program, often sparking plenty of debate.
Ohio State tops ESPN’s first FPI projection for the 2026 college football season. Defending national champion Indiana comes in at No. 6 in the initial rankings.
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With only a few weeks remaining before schools welcome players back to campus and begin preparing for the season, the rankings are already fueling debate. Which teams should be higher? Which should be lower?
MORE: ESPN college football FPI rankings unveiled entering 2026 season
Here are two major takeaways from ESPN’s initial FPI release: Which team is ranked too high, and which is ranked too low?
Ranked too high: Penn State Nittany Lions
ESPN’s college football FPI doesn’t seem concerned that traditional powerhouse Penn State is entering a new era. Still, No. 17 feels a tad high to begin the season. Matt Campbell is no longer in the Big 12, and the Big Ten presents an entirely different level of competition.
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That doesn’t mean Penn State won’t have a good season, especially considering its first three games look relatively manageable. However, several road games present significant challenges. With so many unknowns entering the season, it’s difficult to predict how Penn State’s first year under Campbell will play out.
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At No. 17, Penn State has an implied chance to compete for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. Will Campbell and company make that happen?
Ranked too low: Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Miami cracked the top 10, but it feels like the Hurricanes should occupy Notre Dame’s No. 3 spot. Yes, the FPI formula runs 20,000 simulations. However, Miami upgraded at quarterback by adding Darian Mensah and retained much of the talent that fueled last year’s run. Mario Cristobal could have his team back in the national championship game.
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Miami should be a serious contender for a spot in the College Football Playoff, especially since the ACC’s traditional powerhouses aren’t as dominant as they once were. Can Mensah be the difference between Miami finishing as national champions instead of runners-up?
