Summer − it’s a time of optimism for most NFL fans.
Nearly half of the league’s teams are striving to build on playoff runs from the previous season. The remainder are hoping a clean slate − and perhaps a few veteran acquisitions and/or promising incoming rookies, maybe even a new coach − can spark a resurgence. In a league where regression toward the mean (read: parity) is virtually unavoidable, just about everyone has a viable shot to thrive.
Advertisement
The NFL will proudly tell you that for 36 straight seasons, going back to 1990, at least four teams made the playoffs after failing to qualify in the previous one. It’s also become fairly routine to go from last place to first. At least one team has risen from its divisional outhouse to the penthouse year over year in 20 of the past 23 seasons − including three squads (Panthers, Bears, Patriots) in 2025.
Of course, not everyone views their football world in a rosy hue. Those who see half-empty glasses, embrace the data of what’s basically a zero-sum proposition or merely identify with Eeyore know that, for every tale of NFL success, failure is just as likely.
Over the past decade, nine clubs have had the bottom fall out, falling from a divisional throne to last place in the span of a year − including six since the start of the 2020 season. In 2025, it happened to the Detroit Lions, who were fresh off being the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed.
“I think that’s the nature of the league,” first-year Lions offensive coordinator Drew Petzing said during OTAs last month.
Advertisement
“We’ve got to show up, we’ve got to get better, we’ve got to be where we want to be. I think you’re always going to feel that to some extent.”
It’s hard to stay on top, but chances are that one of last season’s division rulers won’t only abdicate but will plummet to the bottom of the standings. Here are our rankings of all eight candidates eligible to make a first-to-worst tumble in 2026, from least likely to most:
WORST TO FIRST: Ranking 8 NFL teams’ chances of jumping to top of division in 2026
What’s working for them: Aligned as the stars were in 2025, credit the reigning AFC champs for the impressive worst-to-first about-face that landed them in Super Bowl 60. An offense that ranked third last year could be even more formidable now that league MVP runner-up Drake Maye, who will be 24 when the season starts, will team with newly acquired WRs A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Second-year RB TreVeyon Henderson, who started four games as a rookie, could take another significant step given the upgrades at receiver. But perhaps the best safeguard protecting the Pats from a catastrophic reversal is the division they play in − and it’s rather difficult to see them falling behind either the Jets or Dolphins, projected as two of the league’s worst outfits in 2026, but certainly not both.
Advertisement
What’s working against them: Despite all of the eventually fulfilled speculation regarding the Brown trade, the story of New England‘s offseason has been the cloud hovering over NFL Coach of the Year Mike Vrabel and his off-field relationship with former league insider Dianna Russini. And while the Patriots have stood behind Vrabel, it’s hard to say when the next chapter of what’s become a sordid tale materializes − and whether it might impact him and the team in a more meaningful way. On the field, what should be an upgraded offensive line must do a better job protecting Maye, who took a beating while getting sacked 21 times in four playoff games. The Pats, who prevailed by one score in eight of their 17 victories last season, will also have to navigate the first-place schedule that replaces the last-place one they leveraged so successfully in 2025.
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 08: Sam Darnold #14 of the Seattle Seahawks calls out orders from the line of scrimmage during the first quarter of Super Bowl LX against the New England Patriots at Levi’s Stadium on February 08, 2026 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
What’s working for them: Coming off their Super Bowl rout of the Patriots, the ‘Hawks ought to remain a tough out in 2026 and should have a reasonable shot to repeat. Wunderkind coach Mike Macdonald has built a close-knit culture for a franchise that’s gone 27-10 in his two seasons (playoffs included) and lords over the league’s stingiest and, perhaps, most intimidating defense. And while Seattle isn’t exactly running it back with the same cast, a championship core largely remains intact. Sounds like a pretty good investment.
Advertisement
More: Venture seekers want to steer new NFL seas with Seahawks
What’s working against them: The NFC West, which had three members win at least 12 games last season − a first in NFL history − is a rugged gauntlet … though it’s awfully tough to envision a scenario where Seattle finishes worse than third place, which would require the lowly Cardinals to overtake them. Though the “Dark Side” defense shed some depth during free agency, the offense bears closer watching. Good as QB Sam Darnold was during his first year as the Seahawks’ QB1, he has a new (and unproven) offensive coordinator in Brian Fleury after Klint Kubiak took the head coaching job in Las Vegas and will be without departed Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III − rookie RB Jadarian Price and still-injured Zach Charbonnet (knee) likely charged with replacing most of his production. Regardless, the Seahawks and Rams (still) look like the NFL’s best teams as the 2026 season looms.
NFL POWER RANKINGS: There’s a new No. 1, Seahawks exiting top spot after league’s eventful offseason, June trades
What’s working for them: If QB Bo Nix doesn’t break his ankle in the playoffs, this team probably plays Seattle in Super Bowl 60. Love him or not as a player, Nix should be ready to go this season − armed with new WR1 Jaylen Waddle and one of the league’s elite defenses, one that helped end the Kansas City Chiefs‘ longtime AFC West rule last year. But there’s definitely room for improvement on the offensive side, where Nix, TE Evan Engram and RB RJ Harvey could all supply a bit more pop in 2025, to say nothing of what a full season from RB J.K. Dobbins might mean. Like the Seahawks, the Broncos are parked in a tough division − but not so tough that the perpetually rebooting Raiders will have much chance to relegate Denver to the bottom.
Advertisement
What’s working against them: Newly promoted OC Davis Webb will call the plays … doubtless with plenty of input from coach Sean Payton. That could produce hiccups early on, especially while Webb and Waddle adapt to their roles. And it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if the Chiefs rise again or if the Chargers get to the top of the AFC West. But, ultimately − barring an unmitigated disaster − Denver should be highly relevant this season.
What’s working for them: They’re coming off one of the best seasons in franchise history, a 13-4 ride to the AFC South peak under rookie coach Liam Coen in 2025. One reason for the Jags’ revival was QB Trevor Lawrence, seemingly unlocked in his fifth season by Coen and finishing fifth in the MVP race. It remains to be seen if CB/WR Travis Hunter will actually blossom into a star, but the No. 2 selection of the 2025 draft will at least enter his second season fully healthy − expected to be a starter on defense and contributing snaps in a crowded wideout room. The maintenance of continuity on Coen’s young and promising staff for another season should be a plus.
What’s working against them: While the Jaguars should remain markedly better than seeming also-rans like the Colts and Titans in the AFC South, they’re also probably more vulnerable than Seattle, Denver or New England given the perceived bottom feeders in their respective divisions. RB Travis Etienne and LB Devin Lloyd, instrumental players in 2025, left in free agency and weren’t replaced by proven commodities. And while Hunter remains something of a wild card, the hefty price paid to get him last year also limited Jacksonville’s ability to get impact players in the 2026 draft.
Advertisement
What’s working for them: Four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers may be 42, but he’s back for one more ride and − at the very least − provides continuity behind center the Steelers have rarely enjoyed since Ben Roethlisberger‘s retirement four years ago. Rodgers is coming off his best season since he was in Green Bay and should have a better arsenal at his disposal in 2026, including RB Rico Dowdle and WRs Michael Pittman Jr. and Germie Bernard, Pittsburgh’s second-round pick. And while the AFC North is typically one of the league’s most hotly contested divisions, the now Myles Garrett-less Cleveland Browns seem like a solid bet to keep the rest of the group out of fourth place.
What’s working against them: Rodgers may remain, but − after nearly two decades under Mike Tomlin − the rest of the organization is adapting to Mike McCarthy, who coached Rodgers for years with the Packers and has now rejoined him in his hometown. McCarthy could well be a needed breath of fresh air, but there’s no way to know how a veteran-laden team that was so loyal and accustomed to Tomlin will respond. A talented but aging and expensive defense that didn’t sufficiently support Rodgers last season must be much better than the league’s 26th-ranked unit. And if Rodgers gets hurt or his play goes over a cliff (as has been known to happen to QBs at his advanced age), McCarthy could be compelled to play unproven youngsters Will Howard and/or rookie Drew Allar − a development that could easily scuttle the Steelers and sink them to last place.
What’s working for them: Not only did they win the NFC North in Year 1 under coach Ben Johnson, the Bears were oh so close to reaching the NFC championship game. QB Caleb Williams took a major step forward under Johnson, reaffirming why he was the top pick of the 2024 draft with improved (and often magical) play, and his growth should only continue as the partnership deepens. It stands to reason that the offense, which featured the league’s third-best rushing attack in 2025, as a whole should further expand under Johnson, who guided the Lions into elite territory for years as their offensive coordinator.
Advertisement
What’s working against them: From a personnel standpoint, there have been major changes in the wideout corps, on the offensive line and at the second and third levels of a defense that masked its warts with an NFL-best 33 takeaways in 2025 − turnover domination not the most repeatable model for success. Beyond that, the Bears also landed the league’s hardest schedule based on opponents’ collective winning percentage last year (.550) − perhaps a key consideration in such a tightly packed division, one in which every team landed above .500 last season with Chicago finishing just two games ahead of last-place Detroit. And, don’t forget, the Lions swept the Bears in 2025.
What’s working for them: They’ve reached postseason in all five seasons under coach Nick Sirianni, who’s also guided the Eagles to two of the past four Super Bowls. Despite Brown’s long-anticipated departure, EVP/GM Howie Roseman continues to maintain and restock one of the game’s deepest and most-talented rosters. Philly even broke a two-decade hex as the NFC East’s first back-to-back winners since 2004, so why not a three-peat?
What’s working against them: Few outfits generate as much scrutiny, and the exit of Brown, a three-time team captain, generated plenty more this offseason. Now the spotlight shifts to enigmatic QB Jalen Hurts, who will be playing for yet another coordinator (newcomer Sean Mannion) in a foreign scheme while throwing to a revamped group of receivers, longtime teammate DeVonta Smith notwithstanding. DT Jalen Carter‘s contract situation looms as an issue. The Tush Push has gone off the rails and now even renowned longtime O-line coach Jeff Stoutland is gone. That’s quite a bit of fundamental change for what was one of the century’s most dominant teams in 2024 prior to last year’s one-and-done playoff disappointment. As for what else could go wrong? Every other team in the division appears upwardly mobile under the right circumstances.
Advertisement
What’s working for them: A fairly young team broke through last year to win the NFC South for the first time in a decade while reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2017 − and nearly took out the mighty Rams in the wild-card round. LBs Jaelan Phillips and Lloyd were two of this year’s biggest free-agent catches and should take a middling defense to another level. And a division that didn’t have a single team finish above .500 remains eminently winnable.
What’s working against them: The NFC South is also eminently losable. Carolina dropped four of its final five games last season but prevailed among three 8-9 teams to capture first place via a favorable tiebreaker. QB Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 draft, shows flashes but has yet to average even 200 passing yards per game over an entire season and hasn’t firmly established himself as the long-term face of this franchise. That objective probably won’t get easier in 2026 as Young operates behind a line in flux while trying to jumpstart an attack that ranked 27th overall and in terms of points scored in 2025. And clustered as the NFC South is, the Panthers’ first-place schedule could be the difference that sends them to the back of the pack.
All NFL news on and off the field. Sign up for USA TODAY’s 4th and Monday newsletter.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: First to worst in the NFL happens routinely. Ranking 2025 division winners by peril
