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The Washington Mystics are as many as -6.5 point favorites when they host the expansion Portland Fire tonight at CareFirst Arena.
This is a battle of two turnover-prone groups, and my Fire vs. Mystics predictions and WNBA picks are expecting a high-scoring affair in the nation’s capital.
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Fire vs Mystics prediction
Fire vs Mystics best bet: Over 162.5 (-110)
The Over is the play here.
The Portland Fire’s leaky interior defense has allowed a league-worst 46.8 points in the paint over their past five games, which should aid the dominant Washington Mystics’ interior scoring.
Add in the fact that both teams have turned the ball over on more than 21% of their possessions, and this game becomes a transition track meet.
These live-ball turnovers have resulted in a combined 37 ppg for opponents, and coupled with Portland’s recent highly efficient 59% shooting, this total is set way too low.
Play this to 164.5 points tonight.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Across their last five games, the Fire are averaging a league-best 21.8 ppg from turnovers while the Mystics are sixth at 17.8 ppg from opponents’ miscues.
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Fire vs Mystics same-game parlay
I love the Over, and I will add the Mystics moneyline, and Bridget Carleton’s improving playmaking skills make this a strong +525 SGP card.
The Mystics may be turnover-prone, but they’ve won four of their last five games. Kiki Iriafen and Shakira Austin should dominate the paint against a Fire defense that has allowed 44.6 ppg in the paint in their previous five contests.
Carleton is playing 30+ minutes per night and has dropped 3, 4, 3, 2, 2 assists over the last five contests. Washington has recently allowed six assists per night to forwards, and a boon for this card.
Fire vs Mystics SGP
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Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 assists
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Phil Naessens’ 2026 Transparency Record
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Best bet: 9-9, -1.57 units
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Player prop: 0-5, -5.0 units
Fire vs Mystics odds
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Spread: Fire +5.5 | Mystics -5.5
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Moneyline: Fire +170 | Mystics -205
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Over/Under: Over 163.5 | Under 163.5
Fire vs Mystics trend
The Over is 7-3 across the Portland Fire’s last 10 games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Fire vs Mystics
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Location |
CareFirst Arena, Washington, DC |
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Date |
Thursday, July 16, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
7:00 p.m. ET |
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TV |
KPDX, MNMT |
Fire vs Mystics latest injuries
Fire: Jordan Harrison (Out), Megan Gustafson (Out).
Mystics: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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