As we prepare for the upcoming college football season, there are many ways to gauge which teams are expected to be good, which teams will be surprise contenders, and which programs have the best chance to win it all.
Honestly, it can get overwhelming trying to find who believes what.
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If you’ve followed the sport long enough, though, then you’ve likely got a few trusted sources or voices that you return to each year for your information. Maybe they’ve been right in the past, or offered some insight that you valued. They may not be perfect, but more often than not, you can feel comfortable with what they’re producing. For me, that’s ESPN’s Football Power Index.
It’s certainly not perfect, and there are numbers that it has produced over the years that were worthy of questioning. But for the most part, the FPI has provided a valuable view of the college football landscape, offering a measure of team strength intended to accurately predict a team’s future performance. It judges how much better a specific team is compared to average, using past results, simulations, and the remaining schedule.
So, where do the Oregon Ducks stand in this year’s preseason FPI? If you’ve been following the offseason in Eugene, it should come as no surprise to hear that the answer is anything other than “very well.”
According to ESPN’s FPI, Oregon is ranked No. 4 in the nation, behind the Ohio State Buckeyes, Texas Longhorns, and Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Georgia Bulldogs are one spot behind the Ducks. Oregon is projected to go 10.2-2.3, according to FPI, and has a 24.2% chance to win the Big Ten, a 64.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff, and a 17.7% chance to make the national championship. The Ducks’ 9.9% chance to win the championship is the fourth best in the nation.
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As the season goes on, these numbers will change, so we will follow along week after week and see what the FPI predicts for Oregon. At the moment, though, it’s expecting another elite season out of Eugene.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Where Oregon Ducks rank in ESPN FPI entering 2026 season
