Expectations are beginning to build around Oklahoma State men’s basketball.
Jeff Goodman recently released his preseason Big 12 rankings for the Field of 68, placing the Cowboys ninth in one of the deepest conferences in college basketball. At first glance, that may not excite Oklahoma State fans hoping for a breakout season under Steve Lutz.
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However, I actually think it’s the perfect spot to begin the year.
At the same time, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi already has Oklahoma State projected in his way-too-early NCAA Tournament bracket. Those two projections aren’t contradictory—they actually tell the same story.
The Cowboys have earned respect nationally, but they still have something to prove.
That’s exactly where this team should be entering the season.
No. 9 Is a Fair Starting Point
The Big 12 isn’t a conference where potential alone earns you a top-five ranking.
Houston, Arizona, Kansas, Iowa State and Texas Tech have all established themselves as national contenders. Programs like Baylor, BYU and West Virginia also return talented rosters capable of competing near the top of the league.
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Oklahoma State hasn’t reached that level yet.
Steve Lutz inherited a program that needed a complete reset, and while his first offseason generated plenty of optimism, this new-look roster hasn’t played a meaningful game together.
Until this group proves it can consistently win in arguably the toughest basketball conference in America, a middle-of-the-pack preseason ranking feels completely reasonable.
It’s not disrespect.
It’s reality.
Why the Cowboys Could Finish Much Higher
What makes Oklahoma State so intriguing isn’t where it’s starting.
It’s where it could finish.
Lutz has built his reputation by quickly assembling competitive teams through the transfer portal, and this offseason was no different. The Cowboys added experienced players who fit the fast-paced, physical style Lutz wants to play.
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If this roster develops chemistry early, there’s no reason Oklahoma State can’t climb several spots in the standings.
The difference between finishing ninth and finishing fifth in the Big 12 often comes down to a handful of close games over the course of the season.
That’s a realistic jump.
If the Cowboys defend the way Lutz expects and consistently compete at home, they have the pieces to become one of the conference’s biggest surprises.
Lunardi’s Projection Says a Lot
Another reason for optimism?
Joe Lunardi already has Oklahoma State in his projected NCAA Tournament field.
That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it shows national analysts believe this program is moving in the right direction.
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Making the NCAA Tournament while finishing in the upper half of the Big 12 isn’t an unrealistic expectation.
In fact, those goals go hand in hand.
A team capable of dancing in March is also capable of outperforming a preseason ranking.
Final Thoughts
I think Jeff Goodman got this one right.
Ninth is exactly where Oklahoma State should begin the season.
The Cowboys have talent, depth and a coach who has energized the program, but they haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt that some of the conference’s established powers have.
That said, I don’t think they’ll stay there.
Steve Lutz has assembled a roster with enough experience and upside to exceed expectations, and if this group comes together as quickly as many believe it can, Oklahoma State could spend March battling for far more than a middle-of-the-pack finish.
Starting ninth feels realistic.
Finishing ninth would feel like a missed opportunity.
