Valkyries vs Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

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The Golden State Valkyries headed into the All-Star break on a hot streak, and they’re -170 favorites as they return to action against the Phoenix Mercury.

Golden State has won nine of its last 10 games to keep pace with the other contenders, and my Valkyries vs Mercury predictions expect Phoenix’s veteran squad to be outhustled by the relentless visitors tonight

Get the lowdown on this matchup with my free WNBA picks for Wednesday, July 29.

Valkyries vs Mercury prediction

Valkyries vs Mercury best bet: Valkyries -3.5 (-115)

The Golden State Valkyries have built a defensive juggernaut, and their point-of-attack intensity has been the key to their 8-2 ATS mark across their past 10 outings.

That paints a bleak picture for the slower, veteran Phoenix Mercury, so I’ll gladly lay the points with a Golden State team that takes care of the ball (11.5 turnovers per game, fewest in the league) and can stretch the lead from downtown. The Valkyries lead the WNBA with 31 3PA per game, dwarfing the Mercury’s 24.

Phoenix is 4-9 ATS at home this year, and I’d bet this up to -5.

Covers

COVERS INTEL: The Valkyries are doing it with defense – they’ve held eight of their last 10 opponents to 75 points or fewer, and that spells trouble for an erratic Mercury offense that’s shooting 44% from the field this year.

Valkyries vs Mercury same-game parlay

Even with Gabby Williams listed as questionable, the Valkyries are worthy favorites, and they’ve won both meetings between these teams this season.

Buckle up for a rock fight here, with both squads ranking in the bottom five in points and field goal attempts per game. The Under is also 8-2 in Golden State’s last 10 contests.

Alyssa Thomas is my top pick to clean the glass. She’s grabbed 8+ boards in three of her past four games and is in line for heavy minutes.

Valkyries vs Mercury SGP

Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 rebounds

Valkyries vs Mercury player prop pick

Veronica Burton Over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)

Veronica Burton is coming off an All-Star snub, and this is a perfect matchup for her gritty style. Burton posted a flashy 11-5-11 stat line against the Washington Mystics before the break, and she’s shooting 51% from the field this month.

If Williams is sidelined for Golden State tonight, Burton’s usage and shot volume should spike, and the do-it-all guard has dished 6+ dimes in four of her last five contests. She also breezed past this combo O/U number in both wins over the Mercury earlier this season, including a 25-point night in June.

Tom Oldfield’s 2026 Transparency Record

Best bet: 8-10, -2.30 units
Player prop: 4-3, +1.05 units

Valkyries vs Mercury odds

Spread: Valkyries -3.5 (-115) | Mercury +3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Valkyries -170 | Mercury +145
Over/Under: Over 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 (-110)

Valkyries vs Mercury trend

The Under is 8-4 in the Valkyries’ road games this season. Find more WNBA betting trends.

How to watch Valkyries vs Mercury

Location	Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
Date	Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Tip-off	10:00 p.m. ET
TV	KPYX, KPHE

Valkyries vs Mercury latest injuries

Valkyries: Gabby Williams F (Questionable).
Mercury: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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