NFL offseason power rankings: No. 3 Buffalo Bills try again to get Josh Allen to a Super Bowl

Almost every NFL locker room after a playoff loss is quiet and somber. The Buffalo Bills‘ locker room after their divisional-round loss to the Denver Broncos last postseason was beyond somber.

Josh Allen cried through his entire postgame interview with the media. Teammates cried too, talking about the burden Allen was under. It was jarring. Most Super Bowl-losing locker rooms aren’t that mournful.

There’s pressure on everyone in the NFL to win. There’s added pressure on every quarterback to win big. There’s no QB under more pressure to win than Allen, not just in 2026 but perhaps since Peyton Manning was chasing his first Super Bowl ring. Lamar Jackson might argue, but at least the Ravens have a championship. The Bills, one of 12 franchises to never win a Super Bowl, have a championship-level quarterback but they haven’t even won an AFC title since 1994, two years before Allen was born.

Allen said after that Broncos loss that he felt he let his teammates down. The entire Bills franchise has to be feeling the weight of letting Allen down. That’s why there were tears.

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Allen turned 30 in May. He’s not near the end, but urgency is growing. That’s why the Bills made the surprising decision to fire head coach Sean McDermott. Not many coaches with seven straight double-digit win seasons get fired after an overtime loss in the divisional round, but emotions were high. Bills owner Terry Pegula admitted the move was made “based on the results of our game in Denver,” and he described the devastation of Buffalo‘s players afterward, particularly Allen.

“I saw the pain in Josh’s face at his presser, and I felt his pain,” Pegula said. “I know we can do better, and I know we will get better.”

McDermott was replaced by offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who had been getting other head coaching interviews and offers some level of continuity for Buffalo. The Bills’ big move of the offseason was a trade with the Bears for receiver DJ Moore, a move they hope upgrades a unit that Allen had been carrying. The Bills didn’t ignore the defense, signing pass rusher Bradley Chubb to a deal worth $14.5 million per season, and also cornerback Dee Alford and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson to help the secondary.

Josh Allen led the Bills to a wild-card weekend win over the Jaguars before Buffalo lost in the divisional round. (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)

(Logan Bowles via Getty Images)

The Bills know they have a Super Bowl-level team and just haven’t broken through. Some years, it was because Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were just a bit better. The Bills would argue that last postseason, it was due to a controversial interception call in overtime that would have probably put the Bills in the AFC championship game had it gone the other way.

The reasons why won’t be remembered. All Bills fans and those who debate legacies will recall is whether Buffalo won a Super Bowl with one of the best players of the era. The offense has been in the top six of points scored each of the past six seasons, thanks to Allen and also James Cook, who won a rushing title with 1,621 yards last season. The defense has dipped a bit the last couple seasons, but it still is a talented unit.

All the pieces are in place for the Bills to at least make a Super Bowl. And every year it doesn’t happen, it’s going to be tougher to accept.

Offseason grade

The DJ Moore trade was widely viewed as a loss for Buffalo. There is risk involved. Moore’s yards per season has gone from 1,364 to 966 to 682 last season. Ben Johnson, a highly respected offensive coach, essentially phased Moore out of his offense and the Bears were happy to trade him.

The Bills gave up a second-round draft pick to get Moore and a fifth-round pick. Although last season was quiet for Moore, he’s still better than what Buffalo had at receiver. At age 29, playing with Josh Allen, Moore could recapture his form from three seasons ago.

Edge rusher Bradley Chubb, cornerback Dee Alford and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson were the top free-agent additions. The Bills retained center Connor McGovern on a four-year extension, though they lost guard David Edwards to the Saints. That was the only major free-agent loss. The draft was fine, and will look better if the team’s second-round picks, edge rusher T.J. Parker and cornerback Davison Igbinosun, can contribute right away.

Grade: C+

Quarterback report

Not much more needs to be said about Josh Allen. He plays a one-man band for Buffalo, passing at an excellent rate, scrambling when the rush gets to him, giving extra value to the offense with his running ability and elevating everyone around him. He had the fourth-lowest percentage of turnover-worthy passes last season, according to Pro Football Focus.

Allen is also durable, having not missed a game since his rookie season in 2018. Allen isn’t perfect — his four turnovers, particularly a bad fumble near the end of the first half, haunted the Bills in the playoff loss at Denver — but few quarterbacks in recent history are as well-rounded. He was MVP two seasons ago and will be an MVP candidate for years to come.

Given that Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are coming off down seasons that included injuries, Allen has to be considered the No. 1 quarterback in the NFL coming into the season, even with Matthew Stafford having just won MVP. That’s why expectations will remain high in Buffalo.

Odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “One of these years, it’s going to happen for the Bills. Is this the year? Sean McDermott is out as head coach and Joe Brady is in. Despite postseason disappointments, McDermott was good to bettors, as Buffalo went over its win total in seven of his nine seasons. The Bills with Josh Allen are graded on a different curve, and there is only one goal this season. Buffalo is favored in 14 games (five of its first six before a Week 7 bye) and has a double-digit win total (10.5) yet again. Will the Bills’ defense finally be able to support Allen in the postseason?”

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Dalton Kincaid had a notable efficiency spike in his third season, bumping to 14.6 YPC and scoring five times on just 49 targets. Alas, he was on the field for only 38% of the offensive snaps, as the Bills did their best to manage Kincaid through a pesky knee injury. The Bills need dynamic downfield threats in their passing game — even if newcomer DJ Moore has a seamless transition — and the team would love for Kincaid to settle in as the No. 2 target. Kincaid generally slides outside the Top 100 in Yahoo drafts, presenting an interesting buying opportunity.”

Stat to remember

Josh Allen elevates his teammates, as most quarterbacks do. And still, nobody in the Bills’ passing game stood out last season.

Khalil Shakir led the Bills with 719 receiving yards. Tight end Dalton Kincaid was second with 571 and nobody else had more than 417 yards. When Mecole Hardman scored in the playoffs against the Broncos, it’s likely that only seriously invested Bills fans even knew he was on the team. Brandin Cooks had 128 yards in 10 games with the Saints, was cut, then picked up by Buffalo and ended up playing 58% of the Bills’ snaps in their final playoff game. It’s not like the Bills had better options. Cooks has been an unsigned free agent all offseason.

The Bills have tried to get Allen help. However, 2023 first-round draft pick Kincaid has had mixed results and 2024 second-round pick Keon Coleman has been so disappointing that Bills owner Terry Pegula blamed the coaches and not general manager Brandon Beane for drafting him. That’s why the Bills decided to get an established veteran and traded for DJ Moore. Allen has been incredibly productive even without a star at receiver since Stefon Diggs was traded. Just imagine how good he’d be with some more help.

Burning question

Will Jim Leonhard‘s new scheme be good for the defense?

Many new coordinators say when they get the job that they don’t want to make major changes to the old scheme, if it was successful. New Bills defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is making wholesale changes, starting with a shift from a 4-3 base look to a 3-4.

“Everything I know and come to know, you just … yeah, throw all that out,” Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver said. “This is the new … like a breakup. Everything you did in the last relationship, throw that out of the way.”

Leonhard also said he’ll be flexible and play to the strengths of his players, including Oliver, who was limited to three games due to injuries last season. There are other good players, like pass rushers Greg Rousseau and new addition Bradley Chubb, linebacker Terrel Bernard and cornerbacks Christian Benford and Maxwell Hairston. It will be a transition for the defense, and how quickly Leonhard’s scheme takes hold is a big story worth watching early in the season.

Best-case scenario

Change can be good for a franchise, especially one that hasn’t been able to break through to a Super Bowl this century. Perhaps new coordinator Jim Leonhard energizes a defense that had slipped under Sean McDermott. The Bills are gambling that DJ Moore gives them an alpha receiver for the first time since Stefon Diggs was traded. Moore should still be in his prime. If he bounces back, Dalton Kincaid finally has a breakout and James Cook is again one of the best running backs in the NFL, the offense can be even better. And it has never been bad since Josh Allen emerged as a star. Allen can win another MVP, but nobody in Buffalo is clamoring for that. The Bills are chasing a Super Bowl. It can happen, and it doesn’t take too many unlikely scenarios for the Bills to get there.

Nightmare scenario

The Bills weren’t the best team in the AFC East last season. Everyone figures on the Patriots regressing, but it’s far from a guarantee that the Bills take back the division title. Last season was a prime opportunity for the Bills to make a Super Bowl because Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson all missed the playoffs. They could all return. The AFC is deep, and might be a gauntlet from a wild-card spot. It will be tough from the No. 1 seed too, considering the potential opponents throughout the conference.

Every year there are championship-worthy teams that don’t make a Super Bowl, and the Bills have been one of those teams many times. Nobody gets endless bites at the apple when it comes to chasing a championship, and Josh Allen isn’t entitled to make it just because he’s a future Hall of Famer. However many chances the Bills have left to win a title in Allen’s prime, every time one passes it will add to the immense pressure felt by everyone in the organization, and the city itself.

The crystal ball says

There’s extra excitement for this Bills season. It will be the first season in new $2.1 billion Highmark Stadium. Wouldn’t it be a great story if that stadium hosted an AFC championship game? The Bills are the top-ranked AFC team in this countdown, with expected regression for the Patriots and Broncos. While the pressure of making a Super Bowl is weighing on everyone in Buffalo, there’s no questioning the urgency after the surprising firing of head coach Sean McDermott. Maybe Joe Brady won’t prove to be an upgrade, but perhaps we look back and realize that a big change was needed in Buffalo to shake things up. The Bills will win the AFC East, get the No. 1 seed in the AFC and Josh Allen will reach his first Super Bowl. And if the Bills get that far, their quarterback gives them a shot to beat anyone.

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